Thomas P.M. Barnett
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| Columns Hillary Clinton, the least potential downside Scripps Howard News Service, May 4th, 2008 In a previous column I registered my joy in finally participating in a presidential primary that would matter, but as Indiana's vote draws near, I find myself more uncertain than ever. I must admit that -- as usual -- it strikes me as a choice between lesser evils. As a conservative Democrat, I see enough in John McCain to give him serious consideration come November. But there are strong reservations too. The next religious awakeningScripps Howard News Service, April 27th, 2008 As our era features globalization's rapid and unprecedented advance, it will logically also feature the greatest single religious awakening the world has ever seen. Religion will become eminently more important because economic conditions will change more dramatically in coming years and decades than at any other time in human history. Hardly the clash of civilizations, this upsurge will reflect the efforts of societies to adapt to an era of widespread abundance as a global middle class emerges. People want an independent code of behavior to help them navigate all these new opportunities--guidelines for a life well led. Resist the temptation to demonize ChinaScripps Howard News Service, April 20th, 2008 As America struggles with financial austerity at home and heightened economic competition abroad, the temptation to find new enemies is substantial. It should be resisted at all costs because what we really need is to be realistic about the actual challenges we face instead of being nostalgic for "threats" we find more familiar. We're headed into a "shark attack" summer of demonizing China. Beijing was dreaming if it thought only flattering stories would be broadcast during the Olympics, because there are plenty of negative stories demanding attention. Then again, just because China hosts the Games doesn't mean they will magically fix everything that's wrong with the place. I don't remember paradise breaking out here the last time we hosted. The wrench in the works for planning future warsScripps Howard News Service, April 13th, 2008 The current debate over Iraq, to include the surge and new counterinsurgency strategy, is really a proxy for a larger contentious struggle within the Pentagon over future war planning, meaning the mix of weapons and major platforms we buy and the way we organize the troops. On one side are those who argue that Iraq is “ruining” the force, making it unprepared for major wars. On the other side are those who see Iraq as harbinger for a far messier global landscape. Americans should pay attention to this larger debate because our nation’s military capabilities determine the possibilities of its foreign policy and grand strategy. As the owner of the world’s biggest gun, the United States can view international affairs from a perspective afforded no other nation. Conversely, we’re viewed by the world very differently because of that capability. Remember when America wasn't so democratic?Scripps Howard News Service, April 6th, 2008 Americans spend little time remembering our history, preferring to focus on current and future accomplishments. That attitude gives us a bit of attention-deficit disorder when it comes to judging other countries' political evolutions. We simply cannot understand why they shouldn't be able to quickly put together a democracy like our own. The harsh truth is that most developing countries that embrace markets and globalization do so as single-party states. Sure, many feature a marginal opposition party, just like the Harlem Globetrotters always play -- and beat -- the Washington Generals, but they're still single-party states. Mexico was like this for decades, as was South Korea and Japan. Once economic development matured enough, a real balance took hold and power started shifting back and forth between parties. Malaysia heads for the same tipping point today. China's capitalism isn't so foreignScripps Howard News Service, March 30th, 2008 Western powers today fear that China's stunning rise signals a real challenge to the notion that economic growth triggers democracy. While I understand such fears, let me tell you why they're unfounded: China's economy increasingly mirrors our own. As business academics William Baumol, Robert Litan and Carl Schramm argue in their 2007 book, "Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism," there are basically four types of capitalism operating today. Linking Africa's future to rising India and ChinaScripps Howard News Service, March 23rd, 2008 Based on a new World Bank study titled "Africa's Silk Road," I'm happy to report that recent economic developments in Africa are both real and indicative of tremendous opportunity. I know you've heard a lot about Africa's "resurgence" lately, but these developments are truly market-driven and not merely the result of outsiders' good intentions. As economist Paul Collier likes to say, it's important to distinguish between the development "biz," or the world of official development aid, and development "buzz," or the periodic rush of celebrity interest. Both are worthy in their own ways but largely ineffectual over the long haul in that they treat symptoms more than disease. While it's crucial to respond to humanitarian crises, such resource flows tend to evaporate once the triggering events die down. Losing America's middle ground means losing our wayScripps Howard News Service, March 16th, 2008 For a decade now, I've had a high enough profile in national-security issues that I routinely receive e-mails concerning American foreign policy from strangers living all over this country and the world. Because I've always been easy to find on the Web, people reach out to me in the hope that I'm somehow powerful enough -- alas -- to effect the change they seek, unloading their fears and anger in often disturbing ways. Let me explain why that worries me. Having worked professionally all over the national-security community for the past 18 years, meeting more people than I can remember and going everywhere you might imagine, I know there are wings and factions on every issue, and that, generally speaking, they duke it out under roughly fair conditions in the best interest of the United States. America's discipline, globalization's survivalScripps Howard News Service, March 9th, 2008 Understanding how America wages war in the age of globalization helps us understand why America fights. As historian Shelby Steele observes, it's important to recognize the difference between wars of survival, like World War II, and wars of discipline -- every war since. The Bush administration has framed its "global war on terror" as a war of survival -- our dream of civilization against theirs. This is misleading and dangerous because it distorts our implied grand strategy. Radical Islamic fundamentalism offers no model of economic development or social advance, and such progress matters most in this age. Instead of synthesis with globalization's many challenges and opportunities, it offers retreat and isolation. To its own people it proposes a cultural firewall, and behind that, religious dictatorship. To the outside world, it offers civilizational apartheid -- Islam kept safe from the West's mongrelization of identities. The 51st state: a huge upside-down question markScripps Howard News Service, March 2nd, 2008 If America doesn't add a new star before I die, I'll be the first Barnett -- in a long line of Barnetts -- to be born and die under the same flag. That just ain't right. Travel back with me and track the growth of these United States across seven generations of my family: The most important financial flow in the global economyScripps Howard News Service, February 24th, 2008 Two weeks ago, I attended an international conference on foreign investment in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region held at a Dead Sea resort in Jordan, and it was an eye-opener. All the presentations and personal networking emphasized to this national security expert-cum-senior managing director just how minor a role our military will play in bringing lasting stability to the region. Foreign direct investment, or FDI, is the most important flow in the global economy, because it's "sticky" money that invests in real things: companies, infrastructure, real estate, etc. When you invest directly in an economy, you plan to stay for a while, and that says to other potential investors: "I feel safe here. The rules are solid and clear. I can assess risk intelligently and hedge against it." In that sense, FDI is the gift that keeps on giving -- a seal of approval attracting more of the same. Realigning America's grand strategy to a world transformingScripps Howard News Service, February 17th, 2008 I'm writing a book right now that tackles the question, "What really constitutes grand strategy in the age of globalization?" By that I mean a vision of a desirable future world and your country's favorable position therein, plus a plan to get there that logically employs your nation's available resources. I ask that proximate question to explore the one that's ultimately on everybody's mind today: Where do we go from here? America's current definition of grand strategy seems to be working the shoulders of globalization's Bell curve: obsessing over terrorists on one end and democracy on the other. Traditional aftershocks of 9/11Scripps Howard News Service, February 10th, 2008 Cultural critic Susan Faludi's latest book, "The Terror Dream," paints a fascinating portrait of our social response to 9/11 and the wars since spawned. It is at once accurate, somewhat overtaken by events, and yet highly predictive of the road ahead in this long war against radical extremism. Faludi observes that America reflexively re-traditionalized itself following 9/11's shock. We retreated into our past or, specifically, the 1950s childhood of our Boomers. Self-absorbed individualism was out, nurturing families back in. These are better days, just not for America right nowScripps Howard News Service, February 3rd, 2008 Americans feel down right now. Unhappy with our current leaders, we've not yet fallen in love with any prospective presidential candidates. The world seems more challenging than ever, with plenty of scary news out of the Islamic world hitting us amidst record oil prices. Most humbling, as our economy teeters on the edge of its first serious recession in decades, our rescuing "cavalry" turns out to be foreign wealth funds! As historical ages go, we've downshifted from the "gilded" to the "gelded" in the blink of an exhausting occupation. Feeling broke and lonely, we no longer seem masters of any universe. Instead, we distrust globalization, our historical gift to the world, more than ever. In our popular imagination, we spot looming catastrophes around every corner, with each new sci-fi movie seemingly resulting in New York City's destruction. War extends frontier on man-machine interfaceScripps Howard News Service, January 27th, 2008 War, while horrifically cruel, does spur technological advances, and not just in killing people. Nowhere is that seen better than in medical care of the wounded, especially those who've suffered amputations. Recent breakthroughs suggest that scientists are on the verge of redefining the human-machine interface, with significant repercussions for an aging global population. A bit of history first, then some sense of the current challenge. Artificial body parts (e.g., noses, ears, eyes) began appearing more than 4,000 years ago, with history recording in 500 B.C. that the first artificial limb belonged to a Persian soldier whose wooden foot replaced one that he himself had hacked off to escape chained captivity. Hoping for a meaningful electionScripps Howard News Service, January 20th, 2008 Each GOP primary produces a new winner, none of them the longtime national frontrunner. Meanwhile, the Democrats feature a tight race between an African-American and a woman -- pure history in the making. It can't get any better than that, the upshot being I might actually cast a ballot that matters for the first time in my life! Some background: I've never lived in one of those early primary states. Though I've dutifully voted in the preliminaries, I always went into the voting booth knowing beforehand what the next day's headline would read. That's pretty boring for a political scientist. The future of oil? America's not in the driver's seatScripps Howard News Service, January 13th, 2008 With oil hovering at the $100-a-barrel mark, we're inundated by calls for a "Manhattan Project" on alternative energy, more regulation of major oil companies and an end to our military presence in the Gulf. The assumptions are that America's energy demand drives prices, the "majors" determine supply and instability in the Middle East explains recent spikes. So, if this is all our doing, then it can all be our undoing as well. Would that Washington was so eminently in control of global energy markets. Resetting the clock on the Bush administrationScripps Howard News Service, January 6th, 2008 The White House's recent policy reversals amount to a stunning repudiation of the first seven years of George W. Bush's presidency. Where allies were previously disrespected, now they're viewed as essential. Where diplomacy was eschewed, now it's pursued with vigor. No longer running the government from his "base," Bush finally tries to lead the entire nation. His political opponents detect weakness and regret and a last-ditch attempt to salvage legacy, while supporters point to a self-professed "dissident" leader extending a "freedom" agenda in his final months. Both perspectives hold much truth. Top 10 foreign policy wishes for 2008Scripps Howard News Service, December 30th, 2007 My list of my top 10 foreign policy wishes for 2008 is presented in reverse order of urgency: 10. Continued frustration for Hugo Chavez. His presidency-for-life derailed by voters smart enough to see the writing on the wall, Chavez will become more nakedly aggressive in his quest for oil-fueled dictatorship. Meanwhile, Venezuela's oil production drops for lack of foreign investment just as all eyes turn to Brazil's substantial offshore oil discovery. Squiggly lines can predict political stabilityScripps Howard News Service, December 23rd, 2007 The current Vanity Fair presents a hypothetical map of the Middle East drawn by a quartet of experts. It depicts what states should logically exist instead of those created by victorious European colonial powers following World War I. Not surprisingly, there would be no Iraq, a classic fake state. And there are plenty more pretend countries out there awaiting more realistic configurations. In a study published last year, William Easterly and two other development experts noted that postcolonial states with straight-line borders experience less political stability and economic success than those with squiggly ones. If your country's borders are squiggly, it's probably because they conform to some natural geographic delineator, or perhaps past wars bent them according to tribal boundaries. The NIE tells us how to engage IranScripps Howard News Service, December 16th, 2007 What the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear ambitions truly indicates is that President Bush's loose talk about "World War III" is decidedly premature. If anybody's going to launch a war against Iran before the end of the Bush administration, it will be Israel -- not the United States. Despite the NIE's findings, it's clear that Iran's reach for the bomb is both real and calculated. That it is real is proven by two facts: 1) Tehran's aggressive development of a uranium-enrichment process that's unnecessary given its arrangements with partner Russia; and 2) its ongoing construction of a heavy-water research facility that's likewise unwarranted for civilian nuclear power. Asian necessity will be the mother of global inventionScripps Howard News Service, December 9th, 2007 During my last trip to China, my hosts treated me with an elaborate dinner. Following the umpteenth course, one Beijing policymaker proposed, "Chinese society is based on food, but American society is based on sex." My rather tart reply: "Oh yeah? Then how come Americans are so overweight and there's a billion Chinese?" After convulsing with laughter, my host declared that a strategist like myself would be better off working for the Chinese: "Compared to America, we face many more strategic puzzles." He was right, and lying therein was an inescapable challenge for American businesses: Access Asia's emerging markets or risk missing out on their coming wave of innovation. The son of a preacher manScripps Howard News Service, December 2nd, 2007 A month ago, my wife's eldest brother passed away from cancer. It was a painful, gruesome end to a beautiful man's life, and it triggered intense mourning that Vonne and I struggle mightily to overcome. That's a normal reaction to the loss of a loved one, but Steve's death likewise provoked within me a great sense of unease, like I had misplaced something precious or neglected a sacred duty. So I ran through the predictable checklist: A glimpse of what real victory will look like in Iraq and AfghanistanScripps Howard News Service, November 25th, 2007 I recently caught a glimpse of what victory will look like in this long struggle against radical extremism, and it didn't involve a trial or a corpse or a parade. Actually, it's an advertisement you've probably already run across in the back pages of the Economist or Wall Street Journal. Its message is disarmingly simple: Invest in Macedonia. Now, I know what you're thinking: "Macedonia? Isn't that one of those lousy Balkan countries we fought in a while back?" All dairy is local, until globalization steps inScripps Howard News Service, November 18th, 2007 When our pediatric dentist told me two years back that my adopted Chinese daughter was going to prematurely lose her top front baby teeth, it occurred to me that Wisconsin's dairy industry was facing a long boom. A leap of logic, perhaps, but let this native "cheesehead" connect the dots on this stunning global-demand shift. My wife and I adopted Vonne Mei when she was 9 months old, by which time her baby teeth's fate was sealed by 18 months of diet in her native province of Jiangxi, part of China's vast interior rural landscape. Being a "persona au gratin," I was struck by the dearth of dairy in Jiangxi cuisine. There were poultry, pork and vegetables galore, but few milk products and virtually no cheese. Butter seemed a luxury item. Think back to that childhood admonition: Drink your milk so you'll have strong bones and good teeth! Build better fairy dust, suffer fewer bad actorsScripps Howard News Service, November 11th, 2007 Scientific advances today are accomplished at the intersections of various fields, according to Frans Johansson's brilliant book, "The Medici Effect." Breakthroughs come when disparate disciplines collide in new ways. This innovation is readily seen in nanotechnology, or the creation and use of materials -- even machines -- at the atomic or molecular scale. While the "sexiest" nanotechnology focuses on new applications, many possibilities exist to vastly improve existing techniques and procedures. I got a lesson on one such potential use recently at Oak Ridge National Lab, which -- by design - -is sort of a "Medici effect" all its own, meaning the lab steers scientists from various fields into multidisciplinary efforts to solve vexing problems. Being a strategy consultant to Oak Ridge, I'm like a kid in a candy shop when it comes to receiving briefings from lab scientists because -- no matter the project -- it's easy to imagine real-world applications ranging far beyond the subject at hand. As an expert on globalization, I focus a lot on transparency, with my analytic mantra being, "connectivity drives code." By that I mean, the more you engage the larger world (connectivity), the more you become subject to rules (code). How our military evolves in long warScripps Howard News Service, November 4th, 2007 As Ken Burns' fascinating documentary on World War II recently reminded us, nothing teaches like early failures in a long war. So, as this global struggle against radical extremism unfolds, it's important to recognize progress where it occurs. In my 2004 book, "The Pentagon's New Map," I argued that our military would inevitably split into a Leviathan-like combat force and a "system administrator" force optimized for the everything else: postwar stabilization and reconstruction, nation-building, crisis response and counter-insurgency. Doing it the hard way with IranScripps Howard News Service, October 28th, 2007 John Bolton, America's recent U.N. ambassador, brags in his new tell-all memoir about thwarting efforts by his successive bosses, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice, to open a dialogue with Iran over its nuclear program. If you're disturbed to read about U.S. diplomats backstabbing one another while our nation drifts toward yet another Persian Gulf war, then don't pick up Esquire's November issue, because it features a story that will make your blood boil. Al Gore's Nobel speaks to need for new global narrativesScripps Howard News Service, October 21st, 2007 What Al Gore's Nobel Peace Prize says to me is that the world is deeply unhappy with America's "war on terror" and desperately seeks new global narratives. It's not that the world wishes us to be less active militarily or even to renounce the tactic of toppling bad regimes. The vision of America's military Leviathan addressing the world's many ongoing cruelties is hardly the creation of the neocons alone. Plenty of our longtime -- and some future -- allies may have flown the coop over Iraq, but they're slowly coming back to the roost over a host of compelling crises. Who doesn't want Myanmar's military junta eased out of power? Or to see the janjaweed put on the run in Darfur instead of African Union peacekeepers? Who wants to see Robert Mugabe's nasty rule extended in Zimbabwe? Or witness the rising rape epidemic in war-torn Congo? The flu season we should all dreadScripps Howard News Service, October 14th, 2007 The White House recently released its new homeland security strategy and, unlike the initial 2002 version, this one focuses far more on natural disasters as opposed to terrorist strikes. That's a welcome change not simply because Hurricane Katrina was a humbling experience, but because globalization's growing connectivity means a naturally occurring pandemic is the most likely mega-disaster we'll face in the near term. Undoubtedly you've heard about avian flu: long endemic to birds in Southeast Asia, it's gone global over the last half decade. As it spreads, the virus subtype known as H5N1 naturally mutates, leading researchers to conclude it's only a matter of time before human-to-human transmission emerges. Among humans who have so far contracted the virus through extensive contact with infected birds, over half died. Putin positions himself as Russia's Lee Kuan YewScripps Howard News Service, October 7th, 2007 One hears much about the "death of democracy" in Russia these days, especially as current President Vladimir Putin muses openly about slipping into the office of prime minister to sidestep constitutional term limits. As a former Sovietologist with a degree in Russian literature, I find this story line all too familiar. But rest assured, I likewise see America's Cold War victory remaining secure. Russia enjoyed no real democracy in the 1990s, instead suffering an economic chaos that left society prey to all manner of gangsters. Not surprisingly, average Russians craved a return to order, which finally arrived in the political ascendancy of Putin's "siloviki," or "power guys," who spent their formative years working for the KGB. Brett Favre -- a Packer fan's appreciationScripps Howard News Service, September 30th, 2007 Amidst the NFL's ongoing melodrama of dogfights and bar fights and underhanded cheating, let's take a moment to thank Brett Favre for everything he's done for the game since stepping onto Lambeau Field in 1992. As a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan, my appreciation for this unique quarterback extends far beyond the statistics to the very character of the man himself. I've coached hundreds of kids in six sports spread across too many seasons to remember, and each time we take the field I tell them, "Enjoy this moment and revel in your ability to play." No player in NFL history has met that challenge better than Brett Favre, whose stunning record of 260 consecutive starts (including playoffs) at quarterback stands testament to his personal resilience and intense love for the game. Reconstructing the Iraq reconstructionScripps Howard News Service, September 23rd, 2007 America's debate about bringing our troops home from Iraq is largely consummated -- at least for this presidency. Thanks to Army Gen. David Petraeus' reasonably successful appearances before Congress earlier this month, that rhetorical argument has shifted to the presidential campaign. The actual details of our long-term drawdown will be hashed out within the Pentagon and Central Command as both struggle with the challenges of troop burnout and threatened military strikes against Iran. As for Iraq itself, we collectively enter a strategic space where it's possible to chart real progress across three mini-states surrounding a dysfunctional capital. Now, instead of trying to rebuild Iraq as a unified whole, we face the more manageable challenges of connecting the Kurds, Sunni and Shia -- in that order -- to the global economy. It'll be mostly oil, but at least they've all got some. What our 'lost year' in Iraq ends up costing AmericaScripps Howard News Service, September 16th, 2007 Army Gen. David Petraeus' report on Iraq, having been leaked to the press for days before his appearance on Capitol Hill, contained no surprises. The surge's several tactical successes in the Sunni regions are disconnected from any strategic progress in either strengthening the central government or stemming the opportunistic meddling by neighbors. Iraq is slowly separating into its three constituent parts (Kurdish, Shia and Sunni), with Baghdad becoming increasingly irrelevant. America's military surge plays effective midwife to this Balkans-done-backwards, in which we removed the dictator first and then presided uncomfortably over the ethnic cleansing that killed Iraq as a unitary state. Iraq's soft partition was preordained by the first Gulf War's inconclusive outcome: Saddam Hussein survived to mercilessly crush a Shia revolt but was subsequently prevented by American air power from strangling the emergent Kurdish nation. The lasting peace provided by nuclear weaponsScripps Howard News Service, September 9th, 2007 Recently on a remote Australian island, I had the privilege of spending time "on the beach"--so to speak--with Nobel economics laureate Thomas Schelling, whose thinking on nuclear deterrence shaped the international security environment we enjoy today. Expecting to find the wizened strategist downcast on the subject of nuclear proliferation, I instead found an outlook as optimistic as my own. Speaking to a World Economic Forum retreat, Schelling admonished everyone to remember just how effectively nuclear deterrence has worked over the past six decades. No state, he noted, that has developed nuclear weapons has ever been attacked by another state. Moreover, no state armed with nuclear weapons has ever attacked another state similarly armed. Think about that. Targeting roots of terrorism in this long warScripps Howard News Service, September 2nd, 2007 With the Bush administration's efforts in this long war against radical extremism grinding to an inconclusive halt, it's useful to revisit strategic issues that invariably frame our approach. What makes a terrorist? Are the drivers primarily political or economic? Depending on the answer, one could argue that America's grand strategy should lead with either promoting democracy or encouraging economic growth. Princeton economist Alan Krueger has made a great study of this question, and published his findings earlier this year in a book whose title, "What Makes a Terrorist," lacks a question mark. That's because Krueger, marshaling persuasive statistics and analysis, comes down firmly on the side of politics, pointing out that most terrorists are middle-class and well educated. Why prioritizing China over India in military cooperation makes senseScripps Howard News Service, August 26th, 2007 I've argued for years that America should seek military alliance with China, believing that such a strategic partnership in spreading and protecting globalization would serve each country's supreme national interest. Here's why: For America to win a long war against radical extremism, we need to make globalization truly global by effectively integrating the one-third of humanity whose noses remain pressed to the glass, wondering when they'll be connected to the global economy. That's labor-intensive, whether it's post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction in failed states or infrastructure development and market creation in developing economies. Sovereign wealth funds: globalization's appetite for riskScripps Howard News Service, August 19th, 2007 As senior managing director of a rapidly growing high-tech company that was - until quite recently - overwhelmingly dependent on "angel" investors, I can readily attest to the joys of financial liquidity. When ordinary individuals accumulate wealth and can invest as they please, good things happen to ambitious entrepreneurs and their start-ups. Call it the wisdom of greedy crowds. The same principle holds for the global economy: when the system is flush with cash and bursting with investors properly incentivized to spread it around, globalization tends to accelerate. When money is tight, that's historically when trade protectionism kicks in, along with anti-immigrant sentiment. Simply put, rising income is a gift that keeps on giving, primarily because investment risk is more easily discounted. The more money I've got, the greater my appetite for risky business. Good things may come to those who wait, but even greater sums accrue to aggressive investors. To rejoin world, U.S. must rejoin conversationScripps Howard News Service, August 12th, 2007 Sen. Barack Obama is excoriated by fellow presidential candidates and the Bush administration for expressing willingness — if elected — to pursue dialogue with America’s enemies. Some policy experts spot dangerous naivete in such talk, and given the wrong circumstances, clearly there could be. But Obama’s larger point, that America needs to “reach out to the rest of the world again,” seems undeniably true. On issue after issue, the international community comes together to forge new rule sets for this tumultuous era of globalization while the United States, in its infinite capacity for internal disagreement, is sidelined by our difficult occupation of Iraq, rising protectionist sentiment and know-nothing paranoia about a world we alone imagine to be infinitely more dangerous than the Cold War. There are many trains leaving this station. Fast-forwarding to a better storyline in the Middle EastScripps Howard News Service, August 5th, 2007 My preteen son raves about DC Comics' recent plot-twist whereby a time-warping disaster instantly advanced the storylines of all its superheroes by one "lost year." As a strategic planner, I couldn't help but wonder what a similar narrative leap in the Middle East could yield. So let's fast-forward to Labor Day 2008 and - click! - imagine what's happened. Looking for victory in all the wrong placesScripps Howard News Service, July 29th, 2007 Dueling headlines last week in The New York Times and Wall Street Journal got me thinking about how we should realistically define victory in this long war against radical extremism. Most people think it’s killing terrorists and incapacitating their networks, but to me it’s less about draining the swamp than about filling that space with something better. The only exit strategy I recognize is local job creation. Humans crave life-focusing crises. As globalization generates inescapable complexity, it's nice to have one big boulder to push up that hill every day, no matter how Sisyphean the task. We're naturally resilient creatures, and self-sacrifice is embedded in our evolutionary code.On July 18, the Times led with “Bush Advisers See a Failed Strategy Against Al-Qaida.” Here’s why I don’t find that headline particularly surprising or disheartening. Publishing book in China its own adventureScripps Howard News Service, July 22nd, 2007 A Chinese edition of my book, "The Pentagon's New Map," was published in the People's Republic last month, ending a three-year censorship battle that had twice derailed publication. The entire process was an education in how things get done inside China and how that regime slowly changes as it opens up to the outside world. My literary agent received several inquiries from Chinese publishers following the book's North American release in early 2004. We eventually settled with Beijing University Press for two reasons: 1) the prestige factor, and 2) unlike many Chinese publishers, the university actually pays authors their book advances -- in advance. Ending today's crisis is as easy as naming tomorrow's scarier oneScripps Howard News Service, July 15th, 2007 Last weekend I caught several hours of the consciousness-raising Live Earth concerts. I'm already on board regarding the scientific consensus on global warming, but like many, I'm uncertain about how much priority humanity should give this crisis versus others we collectively face. Humans crave life-focusing crises. As globalization generates inescapable complexity, it's nice to have one big boulder to push up that hill every day, no matter how Sisyphean the task. We're naturally resilient creatures, and self-sacrifice is embedded in our evolutionary code. Army America needs versus the wars Americans prefer to wageScripps Howard News Service, July 8th, 2007 When Army Lt. Col. Paul Yingling recently published “A Failure of Generalship” in the Armed Forces Journal, a tipping point was reached in the long-brewing fight between the U.S. military’s “big war” and “small wars” factions. The big-war crowd wants to write off Iraq as an aberration, preferring instead to focus on conventional war with rising powers like China. The small-wars faction envisions a future in which messy insurgencies are the norm. Realistically repairing America's image abroadScripps Howard News Service, July 1st, 2007 There's no question that anti-Americanism increased dramatically worldwide in the past half-decade, in part because of our muscular response to 9/11. It's also true that, since the Cold War's end, Washington has significantly curtailed its "public diplomacy" efforts to win hearts and minds overseas. As political leaders and terrorism experts increasingly call for "strategic communications" in the long war against radical extremism, our intelligence community grows quite interested in this rising tide of anti-Americanism, calling it a threat unto itself. In the past year, I've had conversations with various agencies on this subject, and here's what I submitted for their consideration: How America organizes itself to win both war and peaceScripps Howard News Service, June 24th, 2007 For years now I've argued for splitting America's military into one force that wins conventional wars and another that focuses on crisis response, disaster relief, post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction, and counterinsurgency operations. That decisive bifurcation of our forces is currently on display in Africa. I dub the war-fighting force the Leviathan, a term borrowed from the 17th-century English philosopher Thomas Hobbes, whose book of the same name described why man's life was then filled with wars: the lack of an all-powerful entity that enforced global peace. America's conventional force constitutes just such a capability in today's world. Why must America go it alone on prosecuting war crimes?Scripps Howard News Service, June 17th, 2007 Almost six years after 9/11, the United States still struggles to create an alternative judicial system to prosecute terrorists for war crimes as "unlawful enemy combatants." Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court, set up in 2002 to adjudicate such individuals for crimes against humanity, continues to grow in stature, competency and --most importantly -- actual cases. So the question begs: Why must America construct its own war-crimes court when the world seems content with the ICC? Connecting dots? Speak as many tongues as possibleScripps Howard News Service, June 10th, 2007 As someone who's written books on American grand strategy post-9/11, a lot of young people send me e-mails asking which educational experiences will prepare them best for this tumultuous world. I tell them: Study any and every foreign language you can. There are two types of people in the world: those who believe there are two types of people in the world and those who don't. I fall into the first camp. I believe the world is divided between vertical thinkers, or those who specialize deeply in certain skills and subject matters, and horizontal thinkers, or those whose essential skill lies in connecting the dots across various subjects and synthesizing new combinations. Iran: the ultimate scapegoat on IraqScripps Howard News Service, June 3rd, 2007 The Bush administration says it does not seek war with Iran but engages in numerous policies and preparations that indicate otherwise. Like Tony Soprano’s suicidal son, A.J., I sense Americans are being systematically prepared for a military campaign against Iran. I also fear these planned strikes constitute this administration’s de facto exit strategy from Iraq. There was never any doubt that Iran would benefit from America’s decisions to topple both the Taliban and Saddam. What truly amazes me still is that, having removed Tehran’s worst enemies to its east and west, the Bush team somehow managed to get absolutely nothing from Iran in return. Guerrillas of the world: Unite!Scripps Howard News Service, May 27th, 2007 With the global economy's rapid expansion over the past two decades, globalization has entered into an extended period of frontier integration. This forces both the West and emerging markets to radically increase the resilience of all these new networks, especially those extending into regions still largely disconnected from globalization's deep embrace, such as Africa and the Middle East. Why? Very bad actors capable of very bad things tend to congregate in these thinly connected regions. Using guerrilla-style tactics, they can not only frustrate our efforts at postwar reconstruction in Afghanistan and Iraq, but also bring their weapons of "system disruption" eventually to the very networks and infrastructure that fuel globalization's advance. As China joins the world, it learns by scandalScripps Howard News Service, May 20th, 2007 It seems like a lot of bad things are coming out of China nowadays, whether it's some new super-flu, counterfeit drug, tainted pet food or air pollution that reaches our West Coast. You may be wondering whether it was such a good thing for China to rapidly embrace globalization if all its negative "externalities" start becoming America's internalized problems. The best crises are the ones you hear about, because that means the international press got a hold of them. That's important for several reasons. Iraq is no VietnamScripps Howard News Service, May 13th, 2007 I'm not shy about criticizing President Bush's foreign policy, but all this talk about Iraq being America's worst foreign policy disaster ever is pure hyperbole. Portraying Iraq as another Vietnam is a tough sell, but it's one our boomer leaders can't help but make, since they are sad products of their upbringing. Because America faces no superpower rival today, it's hard to see how our current difficulties in Iraq, no matter how we exit or stay, portend an irreversible loss of respect for U.S. military power globally. All we've proven is that: 1) America alone can't stabilize or rebuild a country of Iraq's size following regime change, and 2) providing more than 90 percent of the postwar ground forces inevitably cripples our military. "Star Wars" America should really be buyingScripps Howard News Service, May 6th, 2007 With North Korea and Iran achieving nuclear status, Americans naturally fear the rising potential for nuclear terrorism. As many presidential candidates point out, our ports remain unacceptably unsafe. But America needs more than just a firewall on its border. It needs defense in depth when it comes to detecting nuclear materials. That I should make this argument more than five years after 9/11 is emblematic of our great failure of imagination since that tragic day, which turned far too much of our efforts and attention inward instead of outward. This is too narrow a perspective in a globalized world, where every nation is only as secure as every other nation to which it is connected by networks and trade. Rebranding China’s military for tomorrow’s challengesScripps Howard News Service, April 29th, 2007 Last week in Honolulu I spoke at a high-level conference, hosted by our Pacific Command, of special operations forces (SOF) commanders from numerous Pacific Rim countries. This gathering was notable primarily for the attendance--for the second year in a row--of senior officers from the People’s Republic of China. Now, depending on your worldview, you might be aghast that: 1) the U.S. military even interacts with SOF personnel from China, our rising competitor in the East, or 2) that it’s taken this long for such interactions to begin with a power already as globally significant as China is today. I fall into the second category. Good impressions of Rudolph GiulianiScripps Howard News Service, April 22nd, 2007 With former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani consistently leading early polls for the Republican presidential nomination, pundits have spilled an ocean of ink concerning his electability. Having recently sat down with the man, let me tell you why I consider Giuliani a candidate wholly appropriate for our times. As someone who spends a lot of time thinking and writing about globalization and security, I was brought in recently by the Giuliani campaign to discuss these topics with the mayor. This is standard practice as presidential candidates gear up, and Giuliani's camp is the fourth I've visited in the last year. Nixon and Deng: two architects of our globalized worldScripps Howard News Service, April 15th, 2007 Pope John Paul II hurtles toward sainthood in the Catholic Church, while Ronald Reagan achieved that ideological status long ago in the hearts of American conservatives. Both are judged by many historians as decisive figures in the West's Cold War victory over the socialist bloc. While not denigrating the contributions of these two great men, let me submit that two other figures loom far larger as architects of the socialist bloc's transformation from vaunted global menace to valued global market: Richard Nixon and Deng Xiaoping. Yes, I know I'm talking about Watergate's "criminal-in-chief" and the real "butcher of Tiananmen," but neither leader's political sins compare to their absolutely pivotal roles in history. Most important American ally you've never heard ofScripps Howard News Service, April 8th, 2007 Name this country if you can: 1) Europe's largest NATO military force. 2) Loyal member of that alliance for over 50 years. 3) Booming economy, currently 17th largest in the world. 4) Fiercely secular political system. 5) Population more than 99 percent Muslim. The prisons we build: the company we keepScripps Howard News Service, April 1st, 2007 In a famous experiment on sensory deprivation conducted years ago, a researcher sewed shut a newborn kitten's eye. Weeks later, when the scientist exposed the same eye, it was found to be useless. The profound lack of visual stimulation had permanently turned off that portion of the feline's brain. Humans conduct such cruel experiments on one another all the time. Most of the horror stories we hear involve parents who abuse their children systematically over years, leaving them socially and mentally retarded in the worst way. Humans conduct such cruel experiments on one another all the time. Most of the horror stories we hear involve parents who abuse their children systematically over years, leaving them socially and mentally retarded in the worst way. Foreign policy: Distinguishing dedication from commitmentScripps Howard News Service, March 25th, 2007 I recently spent some time with an old friend who commands a big chunk of America's overseas military. This natural-born leader explains the difference between dedication and commitment as follows: the chicken is dedicated to your breakfast, but the pig is committed. Think about the wide chasm, and you'll come to the same conclusion I have about where our nation's foreign policy has gone so incredibly wrong under President George W. Bush. We've committed ourselves to specific outcomes where we should remain dedicated to broader goals. Takes village to raise this childScripps Howard News Service, March 18th, 2007 Last week in Africa, I learned I had two wives, and I have to admit the news shocked me. No, this isn't an argument for polygamy. Like my Kenyan friend who offered this provocative assertion, I feel that one mother-in-law is enough. Still, my friend's teasing got me thinking that globalization has done less to change the essential nature of human interactions than simply recast their scale and reach. In short, the global village is real, defined less by technology than by people's super-empowered desire to connect to others. First, let me give you the genealogy of my Kenyan friend, Ngewa. China's males: looking for war in all the wrong placesScripps Howard News Service, March 11th, 2007 Strategists prefer to project, futurists love to extrapolate, and demographers will tell you their data are pure destiny. But, just like history, the future tends to repeat itself by consistently delaying our dreams (my long-overdue flying car) while constantly denying our doomsdays (remember overpopulation or the impending ice age?). Humanity confounds us prognosticators primarily by being so inventively responsive to all the grand challenges that we so deterministically throw its way. Nowhere will we witness such innovation more in coming decades than in China, slated by confident futurists - take your pick - for both world domination and suicidal self-destruction. Selling big ideas in a sound bite ageScripps Howard News Service, March 4th, 2007 I just lived every author's dream. No, Oprah didn't call to tell me she's picked one of my books for her reading club. But ego-wise, I got the next best thing: an amazing series of eight, one-hour interviews on a nationally syndicated talk radio show to discuss my 2004 book, "The Pentagon's New Map" - chapter by chapter! You have no idea how gratifying that is for an author who's spent years summing up 150,000-word books in more three-minute TV and radio appearances than I can remember. In Middle East, enlarge solution, not just the problemScripps Howard News Service, February 25, 2007 Vice President Dick Cheney states the long war against radical Islamic extremism will "occupy our successors for two or three or four administrations to come." He's right. But the Bush administration's refusal to launch a regional security dialogue is dead wrong. When we don't give all interested parties - both internally and externally - a chance to steer strategic outcomes, we simply invite their counter-productive meddling. The Bush administration's "big bang" strategy of toppling Saddam Hussein was designed to shake up the Middle East and set in motion transformational change. Done well (the hope going in) or done badly (today's inescapable reality), change is clearly unfolding. But it's arrogance of the worst sort to expect the world's other great powers to follow blindly America's lead in the numerous resulting scenarios - e.g., Iraq's break-up, Iran versus Saudi Arabia in Iraq, Iran versus Israel on nukes, Syria and Iran versus Israel in Lebanon/Palestine. Looking for an easy way out of a long warScripps Howard News Service, February 18, 2007 A 1970s TV commercial featured a harried housewife who, when confronted with a sink full of dishes, cried out, “Calgon, take me away!” In ancient Greece, playwrights tied off convoluted scripts with a similarly satisfying plot twist known as the Deus ex machina, or literally, “god from a machine.” Want a tidy ending? The “god” lowered from the rafters announced one. Many would-be grand strategists now struggle mightily to provide America with a quick exit from this long war against the global jihadist movement. The Cold War taught us that dedicated foes take decades to defeat, and yet Americans just naturally want to come home. Democracy: dish best served coldScripps Howard News Service, February 11, 2007 One reason we see growing resistance to globalization's advance is the gnawing sense among many observers that economic integration doesn't rapidly lead to democracy. China successfully opens up to globalization, as does Russia, but neither seems destined to meet our definition of political freedom anytime soon. When economies open themselves up to globalization's scary makeover, there's also the great chance they'll succumb to its disintegrating impulses. Business guru Ian Bremmer notes in his recent book, "The J Curve," that authoritarian regimes often come apart at the seams when first they truly embrace globalization's broadband connectivity. If survived, the country can ultimately emerge on the far side of that journey far more stable, but that's a big if. George Bush is no Harry TrumanScripps Howard News Service, February 4, 2007 George Bush likes being compared to Harry Truman. Both presidents were challenged by history to define a long struggle and America's purpose in pursuing it, and both became awfully unpopular as a result. But here's where history does not repeat itself: Truman successfully institutionalized his grand strategy internationally, while Bush consistently cites America's exceptionalism to justify his own. Grand strategy involves envisioning a desired future and then aligning all elements of national power toward achieving its emergence. Truman's target was the eventual collapse of the socialist bloc. To achieve that end, America's entire national security establishment was refashioned for the containment strategy. When America threatens war with IranScripps Howard News Service, January 28, 2007 In international affairs, the best threats are often left unpublicized. In his State of the Union speech this week, President Bush signaled to the Iranians in no uncertain terms that America will not let it develop nuclear arms. Behind the scenes, the White House reportedly tells Tehran's leaders that, unless they stop messing around in Iraq, we will take the fight directly to Iran. Rumor mongering or legitimate diplomatic demarche? Putting a man on the moon, or anywhere disaster strikesScripps Howard News Service, January 20, 2007 In the future dystopian film "Children of Men," Britain soldiers on with a Ministry of Homeland Security whose forces scour the island for illegal immigrants. Evoking a siege mentality in a world suffering from an infertility crisis, security equates to sealed borders that hold a chaotic world at bay. General David Petraeus, new commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, tells of encountering the man-on-the-moon syndrome among Iraqis following Saddam's fall: "If America can put a man on the moon," they surmised, "then surely it can rebuild Iraq quickly!" Following Hurricane Katrina, that naive assumption seemed wholly disproved back home. We couldn't manage New Orleans, so what made us think we'd fix Baghdad? Iran: This emperor has no clothesScripps Howard News Service, January 14, 2007 Americans swallow enemy propaganda at face value, subjecting us to knee-jerking manipulation by fiery orators. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, with a few choice phrases, successfully elevates himself to the status of a Muslim "Hitler." But this populist windbag is already losing his grip in Tehran, giving Washington a strategic opportunity we don't yet appreciate. While American neocons and Israeli hawks would bomb Iran today, lest it continue enriching uranium, try viewing the situation less emotionally. Enough of the hedgehogScripps Howard News Service, January 6, 2007 The ancient Greek poet Archilochus opined, "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." Let me submit that we're living through the final months of the decidedly hedgehog presidency of George W. Bush, whose strategic failures logically can be remedied by the election of a fox in 2008. Americans generally prefer leaders to be steadfast and armed with a readily identifiable worldview. To have a mind subject to periodic change is considered weak and irresolute. We often label these individuals "flip-floppers," "liars" and - worst of all - "politicians," when "life-long learners" and "deal-makers" are equally applicable. A foreign policy wish list for 2007Scripps Howard News Service, December 31, 2006 I don't see much to celebrate in terms of our country's foreign policy in 2006. As we look to 2007, here's my top-10 wish list, in no particular order of plausibility. 10. A certain Latin American leader passes quietly, with no evidence of American involvement. Not Hugo Chavez, who's rather harmless in his backfiring attempts to resurrect socialism down south but rather Fidel Castro, whose impending death finally sets in motion a political evolution that should generate America's 51st star within a decade. Some unthinkable possibilitiesScripps Howard News Service, December 23, 2006 Quick! Name the country we turn into a parking lot the next time al-Qaida's network pulls off a 9/11. If your knee jerks toward Pakistan instead of Iran, your instincts are sound because conditions are falling into place for that scary scenario to unfold. No, we won't be toppling a regime - much less nation building - anytime soon in a country of 170 million Muslims (eight times the size of Iraq). But the United States could readily find itself unleashing the "gravest possible consequences" (remember that spooky Cold War phrase?) inside Pakistan's borders - specifically the federally administered tribal areas that border Afghanistan. China's next set of leaders, America's next challengesScripps Howard News Service, December 17, 2006 Incoming congressional Democrat leaders signal they'll get tough on China over both trade and human rights. While stipulating that Beijing must progress on both fronts, let me tell you why this myopic focus may ruin a historic opportunity. China is on the verge of a generational leadership change that will profoundly shape its emergence as a global power over the next decade. Approached strategically, America should take advantage of this new cohort's eagerness for China to play an actively constructive role in international affairs. To understand this future, you must know what's come previously. Nation building on our plateScripps Howard News Service, December 9, 2006 Incoming Secretary of Defense Robert Gates declares one of his goals will be improving our military's performance in postwar environments. It's tempting to assume any pullback from Iraq signals the end of messy nation-building efforts, but recent history says otherwise, making Gates' commitment vitally important. During the Cold War, America engaged in nation building once every decade, but since then it's been closer to once every couple of years, especially when you consider the inevitable splintering of fragile states. Road to stability in Iraq runs through Tehran, not JerusalemScripps Howard News Service, December 3, 2006 Washington waits breathlessly for the report of the Iraq Study Group co-chaired by James Baker and Lee Hamilton. Meanwhile, the Bush administration sets in motion a diplomatic strategy that will most certainly pre-empt the group's most anticipated recommendation: direct talks with both Iran and Syria. Why is the White House effectively sabotaging the study group's plans to initiate a regional security dialogue that includes these two "axis of evil" regimes, when all reports indicate they actively fuel the violence in neighboring Iraq? Granted, Iran and Syria can hardly deliver stability in Baghdad, no matter what we offer them, but does anyone doubt they can thwart our own efforts to do the same? Will Democrats build bridges or walls?Scripps Howard News Service, November 26, 2006 Globalization is more domestic policy than foreign policy because, when America connects to the world outside, that outside world inevitably penetrates our communities, our workplaces, our homes. This recent election had a lot to do with modulating America's connectivity to the world, whether we're talking immigration, trade or Iraq. The question for ruling Democrats is: Will they build bridges or will they build walls? There are really two types of people in this world - those who believe there are two types of people in this world and those who do not. I fall into the former category. Loving Big BrotherScripps Howard News Service, November 19, 2006 George Orwell had it completely wrong: ubiquitous sensing technology won’t be the dictator’s tool for enslaving ordinary citizens. Rather, it’ll give open societies the capacity for serious resilience in an increasingly connected world where danger knows no boundaries. We’re standing on the edge of a technological revolution that will provide us with everything we need to defeat transnational terrorism in this so-called Long War, and no, it won’t be some secret “government project.” Instead, this revolution in capabilities will be driven primarily by the private sector’s response to the growing desire of average citizens for hyper-connected lives. Time for a new generational voice in politicsScripps Howard News Service, November 11, 2006 Whatever your political affiliation, you should be pulling for the Democrats' return to majority power in both houses of Congress. I offer no partisan plea. I'm just convinced that a split government would be better for President Bush, our troops overseas and the world. Let me tell you why. Morris Massey, an expert on conflict between generations, pioneered the argument that "what you are is where you were when ...," meaning all of us reach a point in life where we discover a world larger than ourselves. At that point, we become cognizant of the morals we've developed across our early years, and those morals - or worldview - tend to persist across our adult years. United we stood, but divided we'll stand tallerScripps Howard News Service, November 5, 2006 Whatever your political affiliation, you should be pulling for the Democrats' return to majority power in both houses of Congress. I offer no partisan plea. I'm just convinced that a split government would be better for President Bush, our troops overseas and the world. A recent Harvard/U.S. News & World Report poll revealed four striking attitudes prevalent among Americans. First, they believe it's incredibly important for the U.S. to remain a strong global leader. Second, they sense America has recently lost a great deal of the world's respect in that role. Third, a super-majority believes we're suffering from a leadership crisis. Finally, more than half lack pride in our nation's leaders. A bigger definition of 'us,' a better nation at heartScripps Howard News Service, October 29, 2006 Three years ago this week, my adopted daughter Vonne Mei was born deep in the interior of China. The very next morning she was left in a basket outside the gates of a provincial government building. Nine months following that fateful choice by her birth parents, Vonne Mei landed in Minnesota, my wife and I at her side, and immediately joined our United States. As America celebrates its 300 millionth citizen - quite possibly an immigrant - let me tell you how we came to this life-changing decision. Pre-emptive regime change: China's turnKnoxville News Sentinel, October 22, 2006 North Korea's Kim Jong Il rattled his nuclear saber one time too many with his recent underground testing of a crude device. Now he's really got a superpower mad, one that can seriously do something about it. No, I'm not talking about the United States. America's continuing military tie-down in Iraq rules out any substantial military action on our part. Given our performance post-Saddam, this news is clearly welcomed in both Pyongyang and Seoul, with the latter being scared witless at the prospect of paying any post-Kim reconstruction bill. Epidemiology meets Dr. NoKnoxville News Sentinel, October 15, 2006 As Iran and North Korea capture headlines, "loose nukes" dominate our definition of catastrophic threat for the foreseeable future, with the presumed holy grail of international terrorism being the suitcase bomb. While stipulating that here-and-now danger, let me help you look beyond "foreseeable." Security experts classify weapons of mass destruction in three major baskets: nuclear, biological and chemical. That's the NBC trio you hear so much about today, even though, in historical sequencing, it's more like C-N-B. Which way to the front in the Long War?Knoxville News Sentinel, October 8, 2006 The latest national intelligence estimate is hardly a stunner: Our continuing military intervention in Iraq has become a cause celebre for al-Qaida's global network, swelling its ranks. Democrats naturally seize this as clear proof of President Bush's strategic mistake in toppling Saddam Hussein. Is Iraq an unnecessary diversion in the Long War? My answer is no. Ensuring global security: no zero deductibleKnoxville News Sentinel, September 24, 2006 We don't live in a more dangerous world today. We just live in a security system that no longer offers zero-deductible insurance policies for global stability. America's zero-deductible mindset grew out of our long-term standoff with the Soviets, a strategic stability cemented by our dual decisions to pursue detente and abandon the Vietnam War's domino theory. It can be summarized as such: So long as nukes make great power war unthinkable, global stability is an existential reality that requires no regular blood premiums from America.
Five years in, remembering why we'll win So stipulated - regarding the war. And yet, this war's worldwide impact pales in comparison to ongoing changes triggered by globalization. We need to remember that larger context if we're ever going to recognize this struggle's successful conclusion.
Needed for Long War: strategic imagination Now all those tenuous advances appear overwhelmed by recent events. If the Big Bang ultimately fails, much of the blame will lie with the Bush administration and its unwillingness to change its tactics once it got the ball rolling. In short, this crowd knows when to say no but not when to say yes.The 'end times' are never-ending nowadays Knoxville News Sentinel, August 13, 2006 Now that Iraq's civil war is complimented by Israel's invasion of Lebanon, America's right-wing "end timers" are cranking out frightening, Armageddon-flavored visions by the barrel. Left behind? Not if you've been to bookstores lately. These superstitiously religious types are joined from the left by similarly hyperbolic descriptions of the world's impending environmental demise (great to see you again, Al Gore!). The middle ground? That would be Newt Gingrich and friends declaring the start of World War III. Resetting the rule set on this Long War Knoxville News Sentinel, July 30, 2006 Between the United Nations, G-8, Congress and the Supreme Court, it seems like everybody nowadays is working to rein in the Bush administration's conduct in this Long War. All these attempts at producing counterbalances - both legal and diplomatic - should be welcomed by the American people. Why? First off, legal and diplomatic reactions sure as heck beat military responses. Ever since the Cold War's end, so-called realists have predicted the world cannot long endure a sole military superpower. In other eras, such domination spawned arms races, hence the balance of power.
What America should have
learned from Balkan wars The U.S.-led military interventions into Bosnia and Kosovo evoke few memories back here in the States. Remember the anti-war movement? The acrid public debates?
China's U.S.-like time machine How so? Putting aside all the cultural differences, traveling to China is like surveying - in real-time fashion - the past dozen decades of America's social and economic history. It's all there: from our 1890s robber baron capitalism to today's high-tech post-industrialism, with a slew of social revolutions tossed in.
Time is on our side in the Long War Knoxville News Sentinel, June 18, 2006 The conventional wisdom on Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's timely death says it's a significant step forward in the global war on terrorism but that sectarian violence will continue unabated in Iraq. Depressed? Don't be. Progress in the Long War against radical Islamic jihadists isn't about less violence. Rather, it's about speeding the killing to its logical conclusion in any one battlefield to shift the fight to its next logical stand. After the Middle East, the next theater of combat lies to the south, meaning the war's geography shifts to Sub-Saharan Africa in coming decades.
Is security coming to a border
far from you? Recently, the U.S. Senate confirmed Ralph Basham as new commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) in a little-noticed vote that is nonetheless of enormous importance for the future conduct of the global war on terrorism. Winning this long war is all about spreading our networks, legal rule sets and transparency. By extending America's trade connectivity, we shrink those areas of the developing world that are effectively disconnected from the global economy, and by doing that, we reduce the operating domain of transnational terrorists who thrive best in poorly governed regions. Post-presidency for Bush already here Knoxville News Sentinel, May 21, 2006 The Bush post-presidency began earlier than any other leader since Richard Nixon, whose second term was curtailed by impeachment hearings. No, George Bush won't be leaving office early, and he won't even be subjected to the same political humiliations as Bill Clinton on his way out. But make no mistake, Bush's lame-duck period has arrived with a vengeance - at least internationally.
Development-in-a-box would be
answer in Iraq Let me tell you something you probably already suspect: Iraq won't be the last time America tries to rapidly resurrect a shattered society following some national trauma. Whether it's regime change, civil war, natural disaster or state failure, our military's overseas crisis responses have grown both more frequent and dramatically longer in the past two decades. So the real question is, do you want America to get better at doing
this? Soft-kill option best choice for Iran Knoxville News Sentinel, April 23, 2006 Iran is getting the bomb. The only question is, What does the U.S. get out of this? Because, if we get nothing in return, then we've missed a strategic opportunity to make things better in the Middle East. I know that admitting this strikes many as defeatist, but let's not delude ourselves. Realistic war planners on our side say that, unless America goes nuclear on Iran in any strike to take out its nuclear facilities, we'll do little more than delay the inevitable...
WWCD: What would Churchill do? Feel insecure about global security? No need Knoxville News Sentinel, March 26, 2006 We have never lived in a more peaceful world than we do today — never. I know that statement goes against everything you've been told by the mass media, and I realize it contradicts the amazing climate of fear that's gripped this country since 9/11. But it's absolutely true. Our world today is more crowded than it's ever been, and yet we've never had a smaller percentage of humanity either engaging in or preparing for mass violence. We're not entering an age of perpetual war, as some would have it. Instead, we're moving into the century that will feature more peace than any before it... Reflections: I miss Lady
Liberty I've worked in national security since the end of the Cold War, and I've got to say: I miss the old Statue of Liberty. You know her, the one that used to welcome "your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free." That's the monument I grew up with, and she symbolized America's open door. Old Lady Liberty's got a new job now representing national fear, and it saddens me deeply to see her image perverted that way... China should not be ignored in global economy Knoxville News Sentinel, February 26, 2006 While it seems like America's foreign policy debates are dominated by current events in Iraq, Iran and North Korea, if you really want to start an argument in Washington right now, "rising China" is your best bet. Why? That's where you'll find the most divided opinions. On one side stand congressional protectionists and defense-industrial hawks who are convinced that China's burgeoning trade and military power spell inevitable conflict, if not over Taiwan today then over Persian Gulf oil and African minerals tomorrow. That's why our Navy is moving ships from the Atlantic to the Pacific: Pentagon hardliners argue that, if we don't show a strong hand today, China will inevitably grow more aggressive in its frantic search for raw materials. On the other side stands America's high-tech industry, including a slew of multinational corporations coyly hiding just how much of their profits are derived from outsourcing manufacturing or, more to the point, final assembly jobs to China... Wanted: A department for all else Knoxville News Sentinel, February 12, 2006 America has spent the post-Cold War era buying one military while operating another. We continue to buy a Big War force that's optimized to defeat other traditional militaries, and yet more and more we find ourselves waging lengthy postwar operations. So when are we going to start buying the Big Peace force? Let me offer a challenging proposition: America won't adequately fund that manpower-intensive peace-waging force until we build it a bureaucratic home, functionally located between the current departments of war (Defense) and peace (State). I'll call it the Department of Everything Else because I'm not sure about everything it will entail (e.g., nation-building, disaster relief, counter-insurgency). I just know it'll fill the same basic space that our old, pre-World War II Department of Everything Else (Department of Navy) once did and that it'll definitely include the Marines... |