Defense Information And Electronics Report
July 2, 1999
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War College Academics Model Possible Scenarios For Year 2000 Phenomena

By RICHARD HILL

While no one can predict exactly what the beginning of the new millennium will bring to the world, a group of professors at the Naval War College in Newport, RI, are constructing models as to what various countries can expect throughout the year 2000 and the months leading up to it.

The thought behind the project is that the United States will likely have to respond to some crises that have Jan. 1, 2000, at its root -- whether they be computer related or a function of religious or secular hysteria -- so there needs to be some idea as to what could be expected.

A briefing on the project prepared by the research team asks: "Can Y2K engender enough local crisis situations of significance to the U.S. to represent a stressing of our DOD-led response capabilities?"

The effort, according to one of three members on the project team, is not dealing solely with the ubiquitous "Y2K" problem as it relates to the computer glitches that are expected to occur on and around Jan. 1, 2000. Rather it explores a host of phenomena that may come together to make the first year of the next millennium (or the last year of the present millennium, depending on who's asked) one for the archives of battiness.

"The full millennial Y2K issue is a little bit odd, a little bit different," said Henry Kamradt, a senior strategic researcher at the college and a project team member. "Dates with lots of zeros have always had significance to people, particularly people who have an orientation toward looking for things."

The project was conceived because, Kamradt said, there was a dearth of work being done on the study of the global ramifications of the Year 2000, especially how it will relate to the U.S. government and the Defense Department.

"There are a lot of agencies in the government that are compiling lists of what they think are going to break in various countries. We're not going to do that. There's nothing we could add to that," Kamradt said. "But we could add a big-picture flavor to throw over all that information. We're trying to create a dynamics grid of how Year 2000 could unfold," he said, emphasizing that the models the team came up with are more than likely worst-case scenarios that may not live up to the authors' visions.

Unlike many modeling scenarios that are created, the Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project used brain storming sessions with experts to construct its scenarios. Beginning in December, the team held a series of meetings in which it invited the foremost minds on international studies, cyber systems and various other disciplines to hash over the possible dynamics of Year 2000.

The group came up with four models it named after predominant weather phenomena to describe the possible outcomes.

"Tornadoes" were for areas expected to experience a higher-than-average number of computer network failures, but still a relatively benign set of circumstances.

"Hurricanes" mean an area that would also experience higher-than-average failures, but also a "cascade" of residual failures resulting from the initial outages. This model sees the failures in a relatively tight cluster of networks that "wreak significant havoc within the affected sectors of society."

A "Flood" area refers to widespread and sustained Y2K-induced network failures that begin on or about Jan. 1, but whose after affects unfold slowly over the next several months. This model envisions the onset of Y2K as "a deluge of minor failures that accumulate over time across a whole nation's economic system, ultimately disabling the most vulnerable segment."

This model sees Y2K as an interrelated sequence of failures that does not have a significant impact on the overall functioning of a society.

Finally, the "Ice Storm" scenario refers to widespread and sustained period of Y2K-induced failures that sees Year 2000 as "an all-at-once assault that causes serious disruptions throughout the nation's economic system, ultimately disabling most, if not all, essential network infrastructure." The failures, according to the model, would unfold with great rapidity.

A final report on the project is due at the end of July, at which time researchers will release specific information about which countries can expect to be in which scenario.

Kamradt did allow that there is what he called the "Golden" sector, which is made up of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia which should have the least problems with Year 2000 ramifications.

Certain countries in Asia and the Middle East can expect more than modest problems, he said, while other countries which are below the information technology radar also will be affected because of the outgrowth of problems from vulnerable nations.