Notes
PREFACE: AN OPERATING THEORY OF THE WORLD
6 When Esquire magazine named me...finance and information technology.
Andrew Chaikivsky, "The Strategist," Esquire, December 2002, p. 163.
6 After I then published an article...and private sectors skyrocketed.
Thomas P. M. Barnett, "The Pentagon's New Map," Esquire, March 2003, pp. 174-79, 227-28.
Chapter 1 New Rule Sets
PLAYING JACK RYAN
16 In it, on page 19...expand cooperation with the Russian Navy
Thomas P. M. Barnett with Floyd D. Kennedy, contributor,
Redefining U.S.-Soviet Naval Ties in the 1990s: The Opportunity for Cooperative Engagement
(Alexandria, Va.: Center for Naval Analyses, 1991).
17 Only about half of the ideas...in the "Good" scenario.
I reviewed the state of U.S.-Russian naval cooperation in the mid-1990s,
eventually interviewing a number of Russian naval leaders in Moscow as part of the process.
For details, see Thomas P. M. Barnett with Henry H. Gaffney, Jr., and Floyd D. Kennedy, Jr.,
Future Visions of U.S.-Russian Naval Cooperation: What Is to Be Done?
(Alexandria, Va.: Center for Naval Analyses, 1996).
NEW RULES FOR A NEW ERA
21 I've long daydreamed...worst-case planning procedures.
No kidding, I've actually thought about this! See my Nine Issues Concerning USAID's New OPS System:
How Recent Institutional Experiences Within the U.S. Military Might Point to Some Useful Solutions
(Alexandria, Va.: Institute for Public Research, 1997).
24 I've been reading...eventually everything will happen.
One crucial exception in the intelligence community is the National Intelligence Council, or NIC.
Their analysis is the best in the business and the most balanced by far. In general,
the NIC attracts the best talent in the intelligence world.
31 But around 1980...heavyweight of that class China.
The best single World Bank publication on this story is by Paul Collier and David Dollar,
Globalization, Growth, and Poverty
(copublication of Oxford University Press and the World Bank, 2002).
32 While the world's population...cut in half.
Cited in Andrew S. Natsios, administrator, U.S. Agency for International Development,
in "Alleviating Poverty and Hunger in the 21st Century" (March 2002),
found online at usinfo.state.gov/journals/ites/0901/ijee/natsios.htm.
34 So, yeah, global nuclear war...new era of dominant threats.
Fareed Zakaria, The Future of Freedom: Liberal Democracy at Home and Abroad
(New York: W.W. Norton, 2003), pp. 15-16.
PRESENT AT THE CREATION
35 Present at the Creation.
I borrow this title from Dean Acheson's memoir of the immediate postwar era entitled
Present at the Creation: My Years in the State Department
(New York: W.W. Norton, 1969).
36 I wanted to become one of the "wise men."
The "wise men," as identified by Walter Isaacson and Evan Thomas in their book
The Wise Men: Six Friends and the World They Made (1986),
were Dean Acheson, Averell Harriman, George Kennan, John McCloy, Jr., Charles Bohlen, and Robert Lovettin.
As profiled by the authors, the six served as behind-the-scenes architects
of the Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan, and the strategy of containment.
39 The notion that...prior to the Cuban missile crisis.
As Lawrence Freedman points out,
it was known in official circles in the late 1950s as the "stable balance of terror."
See his The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy
(New York: St. Martin's Press, 1981), pp. 247-49.
41 Again, why this story...between America and Islam.
Michael Vlahos, "Enemy Mine," Tech Central Station, 29 July 2003,
found online at www.techcentralstation.com/1051/defensewrapper.jsp?PID=1051-350& CID=1051-072903A.
Updated URL: http://www.techcentralstation.com/072903A.html
43 The most frightening form..."the age of sacred terror."
See Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, The Age of Sacred Terror (New York: Random House, 2002).
44 The eight-year period...the total jumped to 27,608.
See annual State Department reports entitled, Patterns of Global Terrorism 2003 (p. 163),
found online at www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/;
and the DCI Counterterrorism Center's March 1998 report,
"International Terrorism in 1997: A Statistical View."
44 I won't even mention...predicting terrorist strikes.
See Reuters,
"U.S. Army Seeks Hollywood Theories: Directors, Writers Asked for Their Ideas on Terrorist Scenarios",
MSNBC, 9 October 2001,found online at www.msnbc/news/639928.asp;
and Bradley Graham and Vernon Loeb,
"Pentagon Drops Bid for Futures Market: Investors Could Bet on Terrorism, Coups,"
Washington Post, 30 July 2003.
44 We should do what...rule-set gaps as quickly as possible.
For a good example of this, see Kenneth D. Rose,
"Bunker Mentality: Stock Up. And Remember, We Got Past It Before," Washington Post, 16 February 2003;
and Nicholas Kulish, "Obscure U.S. Agency Seeks Novel Gizmos to Combat Terrorism:
Air-Conditioned Undershirt, Dishwasher-Safe Laptop Get Government Funding,"
Wall Street Journal, 4 March 2003.
45 There's a reason...babies from former socialist states.
Ten of the top twenty source countries for international adoptions in 2002
were former socialist bloc states
(China, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Belarus, Romania, and Poland).
Together they accounted for just over two-thirds (68 percent)
of all international adoptions (20,099) that year,
according to the Office of Visa Processing, U.S. Department of State.
45 As U.S. Trade Representative..."No future is inevitable."
Quoted in David Wessel, "War Poses Risks for Globalization Trend," Wall Street Journal, 20 March 2003.
A FUTURE WORTH CREATING
51 In his seminal 1999 volume...that mountaintop).
Thomas L. Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization
(New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1999).
51 At the other end..."fault line wars").
Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
(New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996).
52 His 2003 book...or even that they occupy the same world."
Robert Kagan, Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World Order
(New York: Knopf, 2003), p. 3.
53 So when I hear journalist...I get more than a little nervous.
Robert D. Kaplan, Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos
(New York: Random House, 2002).
53 Let's not kid ourselves...the military management of "empire."
For examples, see Robert D. Kaplan, "Supremacy by Stealth: Ten Rules for Managing the World,"
The Atlantic, July/August 2003, pp. 66-83;
Andrew J. Bacevich, American Empire: The Realities and Consequences of U.S. Diplomacy
(Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2002);
and Max Boot, The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of American Power
(New York: Basic Books, 2002).
55 So when China, India, and Brazil...that is a bad sign.
For example, see John Kifner,
"India Decides Not to Send Troops to Iraq Now: A Preference for Medical Aid; An Eye on Local Politics,"
New York Times, 15 July 2003.
55 According to the National Intelligence...India, China, Brazil, and Russia.
David F. Gordon, The Next Wave of HIV/AIDS: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India, and China
(National Intelligence Council Intelligence Community Assessment 2002-04D, September 2002),
found online at www.cia.gov/nic/pubs/index.htm.
Updated URL: http://www.cia.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_otherprod/HIVAIDS/ICA_HIVAIDS20092302.pdf
55 Not surprisingly...stem this rising tide without bankrupting themselves.
For details on the tenuous agreement finally reached on this subject,
see Scott Miller, "WTO Drug Pact Lifts Trade Talks," Wall Street Journal, 2 September 2003.
Chapter 2. The Rise of the "Lesser Includeds"
THE MANTHORPE CURVE
63 This group of "flags,"...strategic naval vision for the post-Cold War era.
The five members of the flag-level working group were
Rear Admiral E. B. "Ted" Baker,
Rear Admiral R. C. "Sweetpea" Allen,
Rear Admiral D. R. "Dave" Oliver,
Major General M. P. "Matt" Caulfield, and
Brigadier General C. E. "Chuck" Wilhelm.
The three-star cochairs were
Vice Admiral L. W. "Snuffy" Smith and Lieutenant General H. C. "Hank" Stackpole.
67 The chart featured two axes...threat, gauged from low to high.
The original chart was entitled "ASSUMPTIONS."
The vertical axis was labeled, "INTENTIONS/CAPABILITIES TO CHALLENGE U.S. NATIONAL INTERESTS,"
and the horizonal axis was labeled, "U.S. PLANNINGHORIZON"
(with the three tics being just as I have displayed in my re-creation: 1990, 2000, and 2010).
The exact label for the left-hand side of the curve was "GLOBAL(SOVIET) THREAT-COLLAPSE,"
and for the right-hand it was "GLOBAL THREAT-20 YR REVIVAL."
The Rest of the World line was labeled,
"ROW CHALLENGES-GRADUALLY INCREASING CAPABILITIES/LESS RESTRAINEDINTENTIONS."
It was the Pentagon standard at that time to put all bullets and labels in ALLCAPS!
72 Oliver had previously warned...with his bare teeth (which he did).
Admiral Oliver was not only a colorful figure and major strategic thinker within the Navy,
he also served as technical consultant to director John McTiernan
during the filming of the Paramount Studios film Hunt for Red October.
Oliver kept a framed movie poster, signed by the director, in his Pentagon office.
73 In 1992, the idea seemed sacrilegious...implemented by the Navy today.
Four Ohio-class SSBNs, or ballistic-missile submarines,
are currently being refitted as SSGNs, or guided-missile submarines.
Each submarine will feature the capacity to launch 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles
and deploy five dozen to six dozen Navy SEALs, or Special Operation forces.
For details on this experiment, see David Nagle,
"Giant Shadow Experiment Tests New SSGN Capabilities,"
Navy Newsstand: The Source for Navy News, 28 January 2003,
found online at www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=5559.
74 In the final version,...to use command of the seas."
That slide is found in Enclosure 2,
"The Strategic Concept of the Naval Service: A New Era—A New Course,"
in Thomas P. M. Barnett and Ferd V. Neider,
Center for Naval Analyses Memorandum for the Record 92-0527
(Final Report of the Naval Force Capabilities Planning Effort [Phases I & II]), 23 March 1992.
THE FRACTURING OF THE SECURITY MARKET
83 In my career, I have found...transnational terrorists).
I came across these three levels of perspective
first in Kenneth Waltz's seminal volume Man, the State and War: A Theoretical Analysis
(New York: Columbia University Press, 1954) and have employed it ever since.
84 Despite the fact that the Cold War...paradigm is one of my-army-against-your-army.
I have long called this tendency of the military to focus their gaze on the nation-state level
the "Willie Sutton effect," after the famous bandit who, when asked why he robbed banks, replied,
"Because that's where the money is." In other words,
nation-states have long served as the preeminent collection point (i.e., taxes)
for collective security efforts (militaries).
86 State-to-state arms transfers...backward states.
For the story on the ballooning global trade in small arms in the early 1990s,
see Lethal Commerce: The Global Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons,
Jeffrey Boutwell, Michael T. Klare, and Laura W. Reed, eds.
(Cambridge, Mass.: American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1995).
For analysis of its cost in lives, see the working paper entitled
"Global Trade in Small Arms: Health Effects and Interventions,"
jointly published by the International Physicians for the
Prevention of Nuclear War and the Small-Arms/Firearms Education and Research Network (SAFER-Net),
found online at www.guncontrol.ca/Content/Temp/IPPNW-Global_health_.PDF
86 According to the Small Arms Survey...of military small arms.
For more details, see their Small Arms Survey 2003
found online at www.smallarmssurvey.org/publications/yb_2003.htm.
86 Factor in the growth...their security needs in the post-Cold War era.
For example, in the United States alone, the private sector is estimated to spend
somewhere in the range of $50 billion to $60 billion annually on security,
according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York;
see Roy Harris, "What Price Security?," CFO Magazine, 1 July 2003,
found online at www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,9859%7C%7CM%7C626,00.html.
What could logically be added to that is all the spending by individuals
for home security systems, personal firearms, etc.
HOW 9/11 SAVED THE PENTAGON FROM ITSELF
98 I reunited with...the Transitioneers, Big Sticks, and Cold Worriers.
Thomas P. M. Barnett and Henry H. Gaffney, Jr.,
"It's Going to Be a Bumpy Ride," Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, January 1993, pp. 23-26.
The article was cited in 1998 in Proceedings' 100th-anniversary issue
as one of the best articles in the history of the journal.
98 By showing naval leaders...had to be made given budgetary constraints.
Thomas P. M. Barnett and Henry H. Gaffney, Jr.,
Reconciling Strategy and Forces Across an Uncertain Future: Three Alternative Visions
(Alexandria, Va.: Center for Naval Analyses, 1993).
102 These long overseas deployments...greater workload for the same pay.
For recent overviews on this growing issue, see Kevin Sullivan,
"'Weekend Warriors' No More: National Guard's Expanded Role in Iraq Means More Combat Time, Greater Risks,"
Washington Post, 19 July 2003; Christine Dugas,
"When Duty Calls, They Suffer: Self-Employed Reservists Can Return to Fiscal Devastation,"
USA Today, 17 April 2003;
and Steven Greenhouse, "Balancing Their Duty to Family and Nation: For Some, Overseas and Overextended,"
New York Times, 22 June 2003.
104 As Secretary of Defense...regarding a transformation that "cannot wait."
Donald H. Rumsfeld, "Beyond This War on Terrorism,"
Washington Post, 1 November 2001.
104 In effect, 9/11 signaled...long-term desires and near-term realities.
Bill Keller, "The Fighting Next Time:
Why Reformers Believe That Preparing the Military for Next-Generation Warfare Is Radical and Crucial
-and One More Casualty of 9/11," New York Times Magazine, 10 March 2002, pp. 32-36.
105 As Washington Post columnist...well-motivated boots on the ground.
David Ignatius, "Standoffish Soldiering," Washington Post, 5 August 2003.
105 As author Max Boot points out...two world wars in rapid succession.
Max Boot, Savage Wars of Peace, p. 351.
Chapter 3. DisconnectednessDefines Danger
HOW I LEARNED TO THINK HORIZONTALLY
112 For example, in my Ph.D. dissertation...foreign policy independence.
My dissertation, which was overseen by Professors Adam Ulam, Joseph Nye, and Houchang Chehabi,
was later published as Romanian and East German Policies in the Third World:
Comparing the Strategies of Ceausescu and Honecker (Westport, Conn.: Praeger Publishing, 1992).
118 Then the military would rapidly...virtually no warning time.
In reality, studies of such crisis responses indicates that "warning time" is substantial as a rule.
For details, see H. H. Gaffney,
Warning Time for U.S. Forces' Responses to Situations: A Selective Study
(Alexandria, Va.: Center for Strategic Studies, 2002).
119 Think about our secretaries of state...aid package in return.
For a good example of this, see Peter Baker,
"Iraq's Neighborhood Thick with U.S. Arms: Weapons and Technology Traded for Support,"
Washington Post, 5 February 2003.
MAPPING GLOBALIZATION'S FRONTIER
125 If you are one of...escape the mullahs' censorship.
Nazila Fathi, "Taboo Surfing: Click Here for Iran...," New York Times, 4 August 2002.
126 Barbie has become a doll on the run.
Associated Press, "Barbie Dolls Confiscated in Iran," 22 May 2002.
126 By the time the wave of violence...people lay dead in the streets.
Marc Lacey, "Fiery Zealotry Leaves Nigeria in Ashes Again," New York Times, 29 November 2002.
126 Soon after, the Miss World...from the Functioning Core of globalization.
Alan Cowell, "Religious Violence in Nigeria Drives Out Miss World Event,"
New York Times, 23 November 2002.
126 But most modernizing societies...boomlet among international investors.
Matt Krantz, "Internet Investors Go All the Way to China for Latest Boom,"
USA Today, 21 July 2003.
126 By that I mean deny...sites that criticize the Communist leadership.
Erik Eckholm, "...And Click Here for China," New York Times, 4 August 2002;
and Peter S. Goodman and Mike Musgrove,
"China Blocks Web Search Engines: Country Fears Doors to Commerce Also Open Weak Spots,"
Washington Post, 12 September 2002.
127 Then came President Vladimir Putin's...because it was now safe for it to do so.
James Brooke, "Russia's Economy Building on 3 Solid Years of Solid Growth,"
New York Times, 25 June 2003.
See also Gregory L. White, "Russia Wins Nod From Moody's:
Investment Grade: Rater's Two-Tick Revision on Foreign-Currency Debt Marks Dramatic Turnabout,"
Wall Street Journal, 9 October 2003.
128 Thus, the second-quarter capital inflow...outflow of almost $8 billion.
Figures cited in David Ignatius, "Loot Turned Legitimate," Washington Post, 4 November 2003.
128 It happened because the Soviet Union's first great technocratic...comrade China.
I first explored the notion of a rising technocracy in the Soviet Union
and its potential impact on political and economic reforms in a graduate paper I wrote for
Professor Loren Graham of M.I.T. in his "History of Russian and Soviet Science" class in 1986.
The paper, entitled "The Concept of Technocracy and the Soviet Politburo," earned me an A grade
and later citation in one of Prof. Graham's published articles
("Toward a New Era in U.S.-Soviet Relations," Issues in Science and Technology, Fall 1989, pp. 36-42)
as "recommended reading." Alas, I could not get my own article published because,
as one editor (Problems of Communism) told me,
the field of Soviet studies had already examined that issue during the Brezhnev era,
so there was no need to revisit the concept!
Obviously history turned out a little differrent in the Gorbachev era,
thus leaving us with no more "problems of communism."
129 In terms of economic freedom...the same in terms of its legal rule sets.
Erik Eckholm, "Petitioners Urge China to Enforce Legal Rights," New York Times, 2 June 2003;
Peter Wonacott, "Poisoned at Plant, Mr. Wu Became a Labor Crusader:
Legal Reforms in China Have Created an Army of Self-Taught Attorneys,"
Wall Street Journal, 21 July 2003;
and Chris Buckley, "Capitalists in Chinese Legislature Speak Out for Property Rights,"
New York Times, 12 March 2003.
131 As Dani Rodrik points out...protectionist economies until quite recently.
Dani Rodrik, "Globalization for Whom: Time to Change the Rules-and Focus on Poor Workers,"
Harvard Magazine, July-August 2002, p. 30.
132 Good evidence of a lack...or a recent state bankruptcy.
Using historical data, Jeffrey D. Sachs argues that
state financial failures are a very strong predictor of subsequent U.S. military interventions;
see his "The Strategic Significance of Global Inequality," Washington Quarterly, Summer 2001, pp. 187-98.
133 In Africa, this is known...Taylor being just the latest in a very long line.
Wil Haygood, "A Big Man Fails Another African Nation," Washington Post, 13 July 2003;
and Tim Weiner, "Ex-Leader Stole $100 Million from Liberia, Records Show,"
New York Times, 18 September 2003.
133 North Korea's Kim Jong Il...down the path toward hereditary succession.
Peter Carlson, "Sins of the Son:
Kim Jong Il's North Korea Is in Ruins, but Why Should That Spoil His Fun?"
Washington Post, 11 May 2003;
Steve Levine, "Odd Family Drama in Kazakhstan Dims Democratic Hopes,"
Wall Street Journal, 12 September 2002;
Susan B. Glasser, "Ailing Azerbaijani's Son Named Premier:
Stage Set for the Handover of Power; Democratic Opposition Denounces Move as 'Illegal,'"
Washington Post, 5 August 2003;
and Seth Mydans, "Free of Marx, but Now in the Grip of a Dynasty,"
New York Times, 15 October 2003.
133 Historically speaking, countries...least connected states in the world.
For an excellent summary, see Daphne Eviatar, "Striking It Poor: Oil as a Curse,"
New York Times, 7 June 2003.
134 In several sub-Saharan African...battles between various rebel factions.
Paul Collier, "The Market for Civil War," Foreign Policy, May-June 2003, pp. 38-45.
134 For example, lacking...retard integration into the global economy.
Ricardo Hausmann, "Prisoners of Geography,"
Foreign Policy, January-February 2001, pp. 45-53
134 It is estimated that...porous borders with Argentina, Brazil, and Bolivia.
Tony Smith, "Contraband Is Big Business in Paraguay," New York Times, 10 June 2003.
134 Under normal circumstances...loose rule set regarding shipping registries.
Marc Lifsher, "Landlocked Bolivia Is Making Waves on the High Seas," Wall Street Journal, 23 October 2002.
135 States that engage in smuggling...addition to selling counterfeit currencies.
Jay Solomon and Hae Won Choi,
"In North Korea, Secret Cash Hoard Props Up Regime:
Defectors, Intelligence Sources Say Division 39 Supplies Billions to Kim Jong Il:
Ginseng and Counterfeit Bills," Wall Street Journal, 14 July 2003;
and Doug Struck, "Heroin Trail Leads to North Korea," Washington Post, 12 May 2003.
135 A recent World Values Survey...divorce, abortion, and homosexuality.
Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris, "The True Clash of Civilizations,"
Foreign Policy, March-April 2003, pp. 63-70.
136 The men took over...women were struggling to find customers.
Simon Romero, "Weavers Go Dot-Com, and Elders Move In," New York Times, 28 March 2000.
136 Based on that sort of success...a global high-tech hub.
G. Pascal Zachary, "Searching for a Dial Tone in Africa:
Internet Makes Telephone Service Less Expensive and More Reliable,"
New York Times, 5 July 2003.
137 Since Iraq had simply been passed over...wireline industry was antiquated.
Yuki Noguchi, "With War, Satellite Industry Is Born Again," Washington Post, 17 April 2003.
137 Based on cell phone penetration...out of a total population of twenty million.
Chip Cummins, "Business Mobilizes for Iraq:
Kuwaiti Entrepreneurs Say Millions of Iraqis Will Want Cars, Cellphones, Refrigerators,"
Wall Street Journal, 24 March 2003.
MINDING THE GAP
138 A colleague of mine at CNA...presidential administrations (1977- 1991).
Adam Siegel, The Use of Naval Forces in the Post-War Era:
U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps Crisis Response Activity 1946-1989
(Alexandria, Va.: Center for Naval Analyses, 1991).
139 Competing think tanks...service-specific crisis responses.
Air Staff Historical Office, U.S. Air Force,
The United States Air Force and U.S. National Security: A Historical Perspective 1947-1990 (1991);
and Special Assistant for Model Validation of the Concepts Analysis Agency, U.S. Army,
Force Employment Study (1991).
139 When I began building this all-service database...to the end of the Cold War.
Thomas P. M. Barnett and Linda D. Lancaster, L.Cdr., USN,
Answering the 9?1-1 Call: U.S. Military and Naval Crisis Response Activity, 1977-1991
(Alexandria, Va.: Center for Naval Analyses, 1992).
143 If America seems to be acting...presence in Central and Southwest Asia.
For an example of this possible pathway, see Jeanne Whalen,
"Vying for Dominance in Georgia:
U.S.-Russian Frictions Surface Amid Delicate Alliance on Terror,"
Wall Street Journal, 8 October 2002.
146 And that is exactly what I thought...Gaffney at the Center for Naval Analyses.
For details on these trends, see W. Eugene Cobble, H. H. Gaffney, and Dimitry Gorenburg,
For the Record: All U.S. Forces' Responses to Situations, 1970-2000
(Alexandria, Va.: Center for Strategic Studies, June 2003).
TO LIVE AND DIE IN THE GAP
155 Hussein's regime was...much less identify the remains.
Eric Schmitt, "Wolfowitz Visits Mass Graveyards of Hussein's Victims and Promises Help in Hunting Killers:
Allied Investigators Have Discovered 62 Killing Fields," New York Times, 20 July 2003.
161 When the philosopher Thomas Hobbes...nasty, brutish, and short."
Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan, chap. 13, p. 62, in the original edition published in 1651.
162 In numerous African states, the poverty rates rise as high as 60 to 70 percent.
Data culled from the 2003 edition of the World Bank's World Development Indicators.
162 In contrast...close to two-thirds are located within the Core.
Freedom House's annual survey is found online at www.freedomhouse.org.
163 In contrast, nine out of every ten states...every four to six years.
The CIA's World Factbook is found online at www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook.
I am indebted to LCDR Thad J. Dobbert, U.S. Navy, for conducting this research.
163 However, if we are to look at the 50 states...but one (South Africa) lie within the Gap.
Demographic data culled from the CIA's World Factbook.
163 All of the countries in the world...thirty-five years old are located in the Core.
Demographic data culled from the CIA's World Factbook.
Life expectancy inside the Gap averages 61 years (averaging by country totals),
and inside the Core 74 years. The global average is 63 years.
163 It is a general rule...by young males under the age of thirty.
Criminal data supporting this observation,
both in terms of single-offender and multiple-offender victimizations,
can be culled from the U.S. Department of Justice's Bureau of Justice Statistics,
found online at www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs.
163 Right now the Middle East...rates combined with deaths from AIDS.
Data culled from U.S. Bureau of the Census and compiled by the National Intelligence Council.
164 No matter what list of "current conflicts"...squarely inside the Gap.
See the conflict databases posted at www.cidcm.umd.edu, www.globalsecurity.org, and www.fas.org.
164 Virtually all originate in the Gap...actually makes it into the Core.
Data culled from United Nations databases, found online at www.un.org.
I am indebted to CDR Alan L. Boyer for conducting this research.
164 In the recent long-running war in the Congo...recruiting child soldiers.
Cited in Somini Sengupta, "Innocence of Youth Is Victim of Congo War,"
New York Times, 23 June 2003;
see also Emily Wax,
"Toting AK-47s Instead of Book Bags: Liberia Faces Challenge of Disarming Children,"
Washington Post, 25 August 2003.
165 Of the sixteen current United Nations peacekeeping...fall inside the Gap.
Data culled from United Nations Web site (www.un.org). As of October 2003,
the sixteen missions were to Afghanistan, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, East Timor,
Ethiopia-Eritrea, Georgia, India-Pakistan, Iraq-Kuwait, Israel-Egypt, Israel-Syria,
Ivory Coast, Kosovo, Lebanon, Liberia, Middle East, Sierra Leone, and Western Sahara.
165 Of the eighteen countries...from unexploded bombs, all lie within the Gap.
Data obtained from U.S. Department of State, Humanitarian Demining Program.
The countries listed are Afghanistan, Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cambodia,
Chad, Croatia, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Iran, Iraq, Laos, Mozambique, Myanmar,
Somalia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe.
165 Of the three dozen groups...31 operate primarily inside the Gap.
Information gathered from U.S. State Department's annual report,
Patterns of Global Terrorism 2002, found online at www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2002/.
The 31 groups are Abu Nidal, Abu Sayyaf Group (Philippines), Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade (West Bank),
Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya (Egypt), Armed Islamic Group (Algeria), Asbat al-Ansar (Lebanon),
Communist Party of Philippines/New People's Army, Hamas (West Bank), Harakat ul-Mujahidin (Pakistan),
Hizballah (Lebanon), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Jaish-e-Mohammed (Pakistan),
Jemaah Islamiya (Southeast Asia) , Al-Jihad (Egypt), Kahane Chai (Israel),
Kurdistan Workers' Party (Turkey), Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (Pakistan),
Lashkar I Jhangvi (Pakistan), Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (Sri Lanka),
Mujahedin-eKhalq Organization (Iran), National Liberation Army-Colombia,
The Palestine Islamic Jihad, Palestine Liberation Front,
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine,
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, Al-Qaida,
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front (Turkey),
the Salafist Group for Call and Combat (Algeria), Sendero Luminoso (Peru),
United Self-Defense Forces/Group of Colombia.
165 Likewise, 19 of the 23..."major drug producers" are found inside the Gap.
Information gathered from U.S. State Department's
"Fact Sheet: President's Report on Illicit Drug Producing Countries,"
found online at www.usinfo.state.gov/regional/ar/mexico/bushdrug25.htm.
The nineteen states are Afghanistan, the Bahamas, Boliva, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador,
Guatemala, Haiti, Jamaica, Laos, Nigeria, Myanmar, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Thailand,
Venezuela, and Vietnam. The four Core states listed are Brazil, China, India, and Mexico
Updated URL: http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/ar/islands/certdrug25.htm
165 Not surprisingly, 20 of Harris's...China being the exception.
John R. Harris, "Redrawing the Pentagon's New Map," 9 April 2003,
found online at www.virtualtravelog.net/entries/000020.html.
The twenty Gap countries listed as "reluctantly connected" include:
Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Congo, Egypt, El Salvador, Ghana, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon,
Morocco, Mozambique, Peru, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam, and Yemen.
DIFFERENT WORLDS, DIFFERENT RULE SETS
170 George W. Bush is making...road ahead is both long and challenging.
For an example of this skepticism regarding the Bush Administration's proposal
for a free-trade area encompassing the Middle East, see Paul Blustein,
"Bush's Trade Carrot Brings High Hopes, Hearty Skepticism," Washington Post, 10 May 2003.
176 In many ways, that is the...all the way back to the Clinton Administration.
See Serge Schmemann, "U.S. Links Peacekeeing to Immunity from New Court," New York Times, 19 June 2002;
and Glenn Kessler, "War Crimes Court Fears Not New:
U.S. Accused of Giving Up Chance to Ease Clinton Era Concerns," Washington Post, 2 July 2002.
176 Over seventy countries have already signed...all of them are Gap states.
The 68 Gap states that have signed the so-called Article 98 Agreements as of October 2003 include
Afghanistan, Albania, Antigua and Barbuda, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bolivia,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Chad, Colombia,
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, East Timor, Egypt, El Salvador,
Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Gambia, Georgia, Guinea, Honduras, Israel, Ivory Coast, Kazakhstan,
Kuwait, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius,
Micronesia, Morocco, Mozambique, Nauru, Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palau, Panama,
Philippines, Romania, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Solomon Islands,
Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Tonga, Tunisia, Tuvalu, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Zambia.
The two Core states that have signed are India and Mongolia.
WHY I HATE THE "ARC OF INSTABILITY"
180 Now, the reporter who wrote... particular plans for permanent bases."
Nathan Hodge, "Pentagon Strategist: Central Asia Bases Are Long-Term," Defense Week, 19 August 2002.
182 Jaffe went on to say...what it buys and where it puts forces."
Greg Jaffe, "Pentagon Prepares to Scatter Soldiers in Remote Corners,"
Wall Street Journal, 27 May 2003.
182 Now, the story caused...strategy changes described in the article.
National Public Radio's On Point, "The New American Way of War," airdate 10 June 2003.
183 In October of 2003, U.S. News...the World's Most Dangerous Places."
See the "Special Report" by Mark Mazzetti,
"Pax Americana: Dispatched to Distant Outposts, U.S. Forces Confront the Perils of an Unruly World,"
U.S. News & World Report, 6 October 2003.
183 First, the arc concept is old...the Horn of Africa up into Afghanistan.
National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski is credited with coining the phrase "arc of crisis"
to describe the Middle East and South Asia.
184 So it's no surprise today...looks suspiciously like an encircling strategy.
As Chu Shulong, a military analyst at Tsinghua University, argues,
"These developments give [Chinese hard-liners] stronger evidence to argue that the war in Afghanistan
is part of a plot, a strategic ploy, aimed at encircling China."
Quoted in John Pomfret, "China Sees Interests Tied to U.S.: Change Made Clear in Wake of Sept. 11,"
Washington Post, 2 February 2002.
184 When the German daily Die Zeit...comes wearing a military outfit."
Thomas Assheuer, "Der Babysitter kommt im Kampfanzug," Die Zeit, 22 May 2003.
186 Now, I know the Bush Administration...Africa being a "bridge too far."
Eric Schmitt, "Pentagon Seeking New Access Pacts for Africa Bases," New York Times, 5 July 2003;
and Mike Allen and Bradley Graham, "Bush Emphasizes Humanitarian Role in Liberia,"
Washington Post, 7 August 2003.
187 As Daniel Pipes repeats...moderate Islam is the solution."
Daniel Pipes and Graham Fuller, "Combating the Ideology of Radical Islam,"
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 10 April 2003.
|188 Since security tends...through security at JFK Airport in New York City
For an example of this growing concern within the Organization of American States, see Associated Press,
"Islands Fear Becoming a Route for Travelers with Terror Plans," New York Times, 9 January 2003.
188 This is what gets...rebels across its far-flung archipelago.
Larry Rohter, "Brazil Employs Tools of Spying to Guard Itself," New York Times, 27 July 2002;
Robert Block, "Spreading Influence: In South Africa, Mounting Evidence of al Qaeda Links:
Officials Cite Smuggling Cases and a Deadly Bombing; 'Perfect Place to Regroup,'"
Wall Street Journal, 10 December 2002;
Karen DeYoung, "Powell Says U.S. to Resume Training Indonesia's Forces," Washington Post, 3 August 2002.
188 Other countries where the Pentagon...Djibouti, Pakistan, and India.
For details see Arms Trade Oversight Project,
"Changes in U.S. Arms Transfers Policy Since September 11, 2001,"
found online at www.clw.org/atop/911_list.html;
see also James Hookway and Christopher Cooper, "U.S. to Send 3,000 Troops to Aid Philippines,"
Wall Street Journal, 21 February 2003;
Steven R. Weisman, "U.S. to Sell Military Gear to Algeria to Help It Fight Militants,"
New York Times, 10 December 2002;
Michael R. Gordon, "Millions for Defense, Barely a Penny for Djibouti," New York Times, 1 December 2002;
and Celia W. Dugger, "Wider Military Ties with India Offer U.S. Diplomatic Leverage,"
New York Times, 10 June 2002.
189 A transnational terrorist organization...increasingly-Southeast Asia.
Douglas Farah, "Al Qaeda Gold Moved to Sudan," Washington Post, 3 September 2002;
Douglas Farah, "Report Says African Harbored Al Qaeda," Washington Post, 29 December 2002;
Raymond Bonner, "Philippine Camps Are Training Al Qaeda's Allies, Officials Say,"
New York Times, 31 May 2003;
Ellen Nkashima, "Terrorists Find Easy Passage into Thailand:
Experts Say Lax Border Controls Are Opportunity for Al Qaeda, Regional Militants,"
Washington Post, 27 January 2003;
Ed Blanche, "Colombia Gun-Running Scandal Links Shady Israelis, Al-Qaeda,"
The Daily Star On Line, 13 August 2003,
found online at www.dailystar.com.lb/13_08_03/art22.asp
[updated link: http://www.lebanonwire.com/0308/03081319DS.asp;]
Linda Robinson, "Terror Close to Home:
In Oil-Rich Venezuela, a Volatile Leader Befriends Bad Actors from the Mideast, Colombia, and Cuba,"
U.S. News & World Report, 6 October 2003;
Timothy L. O'Brien, "U.S. Officials Focus on Dubai as Terrorists Financial Center,"
New York Times, 5 October 2003;
Zachary Abuza, "The Forgotten Front: Southeast Asia Is Now More Important to al Qaeda Than Ever,"
Wall Street Journal, 3 October 2003;
Timothy L. O'Brien, "U.S. Officials Focus on Dubai as Terrorist Financial Center,"
New York Times, 5 October 2003;
and Timothy L. O'Brien, "South American Area Is Cited as Haven of Terrorist Training,"
New York Times, 7 October 2003.
Chapter 4. The Core and the Gap
THE MILITARY-MARKET LINK
196 If anything, it had merely resumed...the world wake up from history."
From the song "Right Here, Right Now," by Jesus Jones,
from the album entitled Doubt (Nettwerk Records, 1991).
199 Being so Catholic...sort of a Ten Commandments for globalization.
A version of this Decalogue appeared in my "Asia: The Military-Market Link,"
Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, January 2002, pp. 53-56.
200 Our best estimates on coal...enough for the next two centuries.
Data culled from the Department of Energy's International Energy Outlook, 2003.
For a good treatment of what he calls "The Chimera of Resource Scarcity,"
see Jerry Taylor, Sustainable Development: A Dubious Solution in Search of a Problem,
Cato Institute "Policy Analysis" No. 449 (26 August 2002), pp. 6-14.
200 Big increases in income...other, less material factors kick in.
Survey data presented by Don Peck and Ross Douthat, "Does Money Buy Happiness?"
The Atlantic Monthly, January-February 2003, pp. 42-43.
201 As Fareed Zakaria has noted...no such state has ever collapsed.
Updating (by adjusting for inflation) the pioneering work
by political scientists Adam Przeworski and Fernando Limongi,
Zakaria summarizes their arguments in his Future of Freedom, pp. 69-70.
For the original article, see Przeworski and Limongi, "Modernization: Theories and Facts,"
World Politics (January 1997), pp. 155-83.
201 The same will be true...for oil in coming years quite dramatically.
According to the Energy Information Agency's 2003 International Energy Outlook,
oil demand among developing economies will come close to doubling between 2001 and 2025,
or from 27.9 million barrels per day to 50.7, while global oil demand will rise just over 50 percent.
202 As DOE warns...plans may prove feasible and others not."
Quoted from the chapter on "Electricity" in the 2003 International Energy Outlook.
A 2003 report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
estimates that the world as a whole will need to make $16 trillion worth of investments by 2030
to maintain and expand its energy infrastructure as global demand for energy grows.
OECD estimates that 60 percent of those investments will focus on electricity.
For details, see the International Energy Agency's World Energy Investment Outlook-2003,
found online at www.worldenergyoutlook.org/weo/pubs/gio2003.asp.
202 For example, while official developmental aid...four to one.
Data drawn from the UN Conference on Trade and Development's (UNCTAD)
World Investment Report (1999 and 2002 editions),
and from OECD databases found online at www.oecd.org.
OECD aid flows to developing economies at the end of the Cold War
averaged in the $55 billion to $60 billion range,
while global FDI to emerging markets stood in the $25 billion to $35 billion range.
At the turn of the century, FDI flows topped $200 billion,
while ODA had decreased slightly to the range of $50 billion to $55 billion.
203 Not surprisingly, Singapore...as a percentage of GDP in the world.
For example, in 2000, Singapore's inward stock of FDI as a percentage of GDP stood at 104 percent,
compared with a global average of 20 percent.
Its outward stock percentage was also outsized at 58 percent,
compared with the global average of 20 percent.
Data drawn from UNCTAD's World Investment Report, 2002.
203 "Right now we're just pushing concepts into rules."
Andreas Kluth, "In Praise of Rules: A Survey of Asian Business," The Economist, 7 April 2001, p. 1.
203 The country came to a standstill...less well off in the process.
According to a Heritage Foundation report,
civil unrest following the disputed December 2001 presidential election
"virtually froze economic activity in Madagascar's capital city of Antananarivo for the first half of 2002."
As the IMF later noted, the political crisis "entailed substantial economic costs,"
but that once foreign investor confidence was restored,
the future outlook brightened considerably.
For more details on this story, see the Heritage Foundation's entry for Madagascar
in its online 2003 Index of Economic Freedom,
found online at www.heritage.org/research/features/index/2003/index.html;
and the International Monetary Fund's Public Information Notice No. 03/07 entitled,
"IMF Concludes 2002 Article IV Consultation with Madagascar,"
found online at www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2003/pn0307.htm.
204 According to polling expert...whether they think it's succeeding."
Quoted in William Schneider, "In War, the Mission Matters," National Journal, 19 October 2002.
204 On the eve of the war with Iraq...continuing threat to his own people.
According to a Time/CNN poll three weeks before the war, 83 percent of Americans said
"the most compelling reason to disarm Hussein is that he has wantonly killed his own citizens.
"It was the top reason cited, with second place (at 72 percent) going to the cause of
"eliminating weapons of mass destruction."
Cited in Jim Hoagland, "Clarity: The Best Weapon," Washington Post, 1 June 2003.
205 Osama bin Laden understood this connection...and the Pentagon for his targets.
I first explored this concept in Thomas P. M. Barnett, "Globalization Gets Tested,"
Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, October 2001, p. 57.
THE FLOW OF PEOPLE, OR HOW I LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND
LOVE THE POPULATION BOMB
206 The UN calculates PSRs by national populations.
For details, see the UN Population Division's Populating Ageing 2002 "wall chart,"
found online at www.un.org/population/publications.
206 My wife, Vonne, and I are...poorer, interior provinces of China.
Not surprisingly, the United States adopts more foreign-born children than the rest of the world combined.
For details, see Jeff D. Opdyke,
"Adoption's New Geography: Changes in Global Rules Make Process Even Tougher, Costlier;
Bolivia, Brazil May Open Up," Wall Street Journal, 14 October 2003.
208 Right now, the best "medium"...nine billion by the year 2050.
The population projection data presented here, unless otherwise specified, can be found
in the UN Population Division's World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (26 February 2003),
found online at www.un.org/esa/population/publications.
See also the division's World Population 2002 "wall chart" for details.
209 The Census Bureau predicts...from Central and South America.
Jennifer Cheeseman Day, "National Population Projections," U.S. Census Bureau,
found online at www.census.gov/population/www/pop-profile/natproj.html.
210 Because we're a relatively young nation...their peaks almost a decade ago.
All replacement migration data are culled from the UN Population Division's
Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Population? (March 2000),
found online at www.un.org/esa/population/publications/migration/migration.htm.
212 Instead of paying more...service outside of their day jobs.
Mike Mills, "In the Modem World, White-Collar Jobs Go Overseas,"
Washington Post, 17 September 1996.
212 It's not just the back office-type...Nishara working in Bangalore.
Mark Landler, "Hi, I'm in Bangalore (But I Dare Not Tell)," Washington Post, 21 March 2001.
212 It is often said that Indian...write half the world's software.
According to Gartner,
India now accounts for 60 percent of the offshore information-technology services market,
as cited by Reuters, "Linux, Microsoft Face Off in India," 11 August 2003,
found online at news.com.com/2100-1016_3-5062158.html.
212 Factor in the multiplier effect...their domestic market demand.
This multiplier effect comes from Susan Martin of Georgetown University,
as cited in "Making the Most of an Exodus," The Economist, 23 February 2002, p. 42.
212 The rest are rich Gulf states...the most Core-like states in the Gap.
David Diamond, "One Nation, Overseas," Wired, June 2002, p. 143.
213 The difference in wage-earning...nursing shortage in the Philippines.
Cris Prystay, "U.S. Solution Is Philippine Dilemma:
As Recruiters Snap Up More Nurses, Hospitals in Manila Are Scrambling,"
Wall Street Journal, 18 July 2002;
and Saritha Rai, "Indian Nurses Sought to Staff U.S. Hospitals:
Exams Cover Medicine and U.S. Culture," New York Times, 10 February 2003.
213 As the Philippines' secretary of labor...they'll come to us."
Wayne Arnold, "The Postwar Invasion of Iraq: Philippines Likely to Supply Many Workers to Rebuild,"
New York Times, 9 April 2003.
213 Wired magazine has described...so far-flung it boggles the mind."
Diamond, "One Nation, Overseas," pp. 140, 142.
213 Latin American workers toiling...foreign aid from the Core.
"Making the Most of an Exodus," The Economist, 23 February 2002, p. 41.
213 Conversely, any restrictions placed...can ever hope to achieve.
For details of new antiterrorist rules that threaten the ability of immigrants
to send remittances out of the United States, see Susan Sachs,
"Immigrants Facing Strict New Controls on Cash Sent Home," New York Times, 12 November 2002.
THE FLOW OF ENERGY, OR WHOSE BLOOD FOR WHOSE
OIL?
216 As Nicholas Kristof..."What did you do during the African Holocaust?"
Nicholas D. Kristof, "What Did You Do During the African Holocaust?" New York Times, 27 May 2003.
216 According to Scott Atran...you are more likely to back a radical policy."
Don Van Natta, "The Terror Industry Finds Its Ultimate Weapon," New York Times, 24 August 2003.
218 Worse still, eight of the largest eleven...economic rule sets is not occurring.
Charlene Barshefsky, "The Middle East Belongs in the World Economy," New York Times, 22 February 2003.
218 The value of U.S. imports...from the entire Arab League.
Barshefsky, "Middle East Belongs."
218 It is estimated that Muslim countries...trillion dollars in personal savings.
Phillip Day and S. Jayasankaran,
"Learning Islamic Finance: Banks Consult Muslim Experts in Bid to Tap Growing Market,"
Wall Street Journal, 12 March 2003.
218 After all, Muslims long ago...reclassify interest payments as "rent."
CNN, "Financing Alternatives Devisee for Muslim Home Buyers," CNN.com, 2 August 2003,
found online at www.cnn.com/2003/US/Northeast/08/02/muslim.mortgages.ap/.
219 Strict Muslim scholars...debt acceptable to Islamic religious law.
Day and Jayasankaran, "Islamic Finance."
219 As Fareed Zakaria...institutions that generate national wealth."
Zakaria, Future of Freedom, p. 75.
219 In 2001 the planet burned...40 percent of that total was supplied by oil.
All data presented here is culled from the Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration's
International Energy Outlook 2003, found online at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.
221 Six OPEC members located...excess productive capacity in the system.
"Conventional" oil reserves basically refers to readily accessible or fluid oil,
versus oil trapped in shale rock or tar sand, which Canada possesses in abundance.
For details, see the Department of Energy's "Persian Gulf Oil and Gas Exports Fact Sheet" (April 2003),
found online at www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/pgulf.html.
221 As one DOE security expert once told me...down on the other end, too."
I attribute that remark to James Caverly, now at the Department of Homeland Security.
223 I mean, we're right on the verge of the hydrogen age!
For a well-balanced look at the challenge of moving toward a fuel-cell auto fleet, see Jeffrey Ball,
"Hydrogen Fuel May Be Clean, but Getting It Here Looks Messy," Wall Street Journal, 7 March 2003.
223 I want fuel cells because...and that's got to be good for America!
Frank Swoboda, "Engines of Change: GM's Work on Fuel-Cell Cars Could Cause Major Design Shift,"
Washington Post, 8 January 2002.
THE FLOW OF MONEY, OR WHY WE WON'T BE GOING TO
WAR WITH CHINA
226 The Defense Department may...deep into planning the next Cold War.
For a good review of this phenomenon, see Thomas E. Ricks,
"For Pentagon, Asia Moving to Forefront," Washington Post, 26 May 2000.
226 Every Pentagon review was saying...counter China's military power.
For a good example, see Michael R. Gordon,
"Pentagon Review Puts Emphasis on Long-Range Arms in Pacific," New York Times, 17 May 2001.
228 In our workshop, participants...to at least 40 to 45 percent.
Thomas P. M. Barnett et al.,
Foreign Direct Investment: 3+x(Asia)=Triad Squared?: Decision Event Report II of the NewRuleSets.Project,
Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Naval War College, 9 April 2001,
found online at www.nwc.navy.mil/newrulesets/FDIreport.htm.
229 Let's talk some numbers.
All data culled or calculated from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD),
World Investment Report 2003.
THE FLOW OF SECURITY, OR HOW AMERICA MUST KEEP
GLOBALIZATION IN BALANCE
232 But when I ascended...and gave my usual brief.
Thomas P. M. Barnett, Alternative Global Futures and Naval Security:
A Briefing and Associated Essays Presented at the Indian Navy's International Fleet Review 2001,
Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Naval War College, March 2001;
found online at www.nwc.navy.mil/newrulesets/AltGlobalFutures&NavalSecurity.htm.
233 Contrary to my colleagues' fears...their extremely intelligent counterpoints.
This exchange became the basis for a later article;
see Thomas P. M. Barnett, "India's 12 Steps to a World-Class Navy,"
Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, July 2001, pp. 41-45.
236 Thomas Friedman...and I think he's absolutely right.
Thomas L. Friedman, "India, Pakistan and GE," New York Times, 11 August 2002.
237 These two officials conducted...move beyond the moment of insecurity.
For details of this story, see Glenn Kessler,
"A Defining Moment in Islamabad: U.S.-Brokered 'Yes' Pulled India, Pakistan from Brink of War,"
Washington Post, 22 June 2002.
238 But look what happens...jumps fourfold, to 66,930 days.
See Cobble, Gaffney, and Gorenburg, For the Record, "Appendix II: Further Discussion of Days:
The Expansion in Combined Service Response Days in the 1990s: What Does It Represent?"
As a consultant to the CNA Corporation,
I generated the original "cumulative days" data and wrote the first draft of this section.
239 Of the thirty-seven major conflicts...per capita GDP totals of less than $2,936.
Twenty-one conflicts occurred in one or more countries described as "low-income" ($736 or less)
by the World Bank (Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Cambodia, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo,
East Timor, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Georgia, Haiti, Indonesia, Liberia, Mozambique, Myanmar,
Pakistan-India, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tajikistan, and Yemen);
thirteen involved one or more "lower-mid-income" ($736 to $2,935) states
(Algeria, Chechnya/Russia, China-Taiwan, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Iraq, Kurds/Turkey,
Nagorno-Karabakh/Russia, Peru, Peru-Ecuador, Sri Lanka, and the former Yugoslavia).
The total list of 37 conflicts (to include Lebanon-Israel, Northern Ireland/United Kingdom,
and Chiapas/Mexico) was generated for the author by Henry H. Gaffney, Jr., of the CNA Corporation.
The per capita GDP categories are taken from the World Bank's annual publication,
World Development Indicators 2003.
241 Historically, the global economy has expanded...more risks to achieve them.
Michael Pettis, "Will Globalization Go Bankrupt?," Foreign Policy, September- October 2001, pp. 52-59.
241 The Party is also bribing the military...search for an enemy worth creating.
A wonderful example of how little things have changed in the Pentagon
comes in the January 2004 Air Force "tabletop war game" in Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama.
The war game was designed to test future "transformational" force options.
The "secret" scenario involved, according to a colonel who plotted it,
"a near-peer who is not directly agitated by us, or us by them.
But there is a third-party action that takes effect that creates movement and forces actions
on the side of the near-peer that we eventually have to respond to, by nature of a third party.
"The scenario takes place in Asia in 2020. Not knowing the secret myself, I'm going to take a wild guess
and say this game focused on China and Taiwan. But that's just my opinion.
For the full coverage, see Elaine M. Grossman,
"New Tech vs. Asian Threat Scenario: Air Force War Game Tests Options for Directed Energy, UAVs,"
Inside the Pentagon, 15 January 2004, pp. 3-4.
242 India, as UN diplomat Shashi Tharoor...future of the world."
Shashi Tharoor, India: From Midnight to the Millennium (New York: HarperCollins, 1998), p. 3.
Tharoor actually quotes British historian E. P. Thompson with this phrase.
243 So far, human connectivity...slowed or been redirected since 9/11.
For just a few from among numerous stories on this, see Scott Neuman et al.,
"Already Battered by Terror, Tourism Gets Double Blow," Wall Street Journal, 8 April 2003;
Thomas B. Edsall, "Attacks Alter Politics, Shift Focus of Immigration Debate,"
Washington Post, 15 October 2001;
Howard Schneider, "Ties Weakened That Bound U.S. to Arab World:
Education, Tourism and Trade Hurt by Sept. 11, Mideast Strife," Washington Post, 8 July 2002;
Nurith C. Aizenman and Edward Walsh, "Immigrants Fear Deportation After Registration:
Number of Mideast, Muslim Men Expelled Rises Sharply," Washington Post, 28 July 2003;
Keith B. Richburg, "Security Curtain Raised Along EU's New Eastern Front," Washington Post, 31 July 2003;
Edward Walsh, "Effects of 9/11 Reduce Flow of Refugees to U.S.," Washington Post, 21 August 2002;
and Joel Millman and Carlta Vitzthum, "Changing Tide: Europe Becomes New Destination for Latino Workers:
With the U.S. Cracking Down, Jobs and Porous Borders Beckon Across the Atlantic,"
Wall Street Journal, 12 September 2003.
243 Clearly, few informed observers...rebuilding/occupation process.
Neil King, Jr., "Bush Has an Audacious Plan to Rebuild Iraq Within a Year,"
Wall Street Journal, 17 March 2003;
and David E. Sanger and James Dao,
"U.S. Is Completing Plan to Promote a Democratic Iraq: An 18-Month Occupation,"
New York Times, 6 January 2003.
243 This is a full-body transformation...the Middle East as a whole.
Condoleezza Rice, "Transforming the Middle East," Washington Post, 7 August 2003.
244 Over the longer run, an East Asian...and South Korea's won.
For an overview of such speculation regarding global currencies of the future,
see Robert L. Bartley, "World Money at the Palazzo Mundell," Wall Street Journal, 30 June 2003.
244 The share of total investment...share rarely rose above 5 percent.
Daniel Altman, "First, the War; Now, Investor Consequences," New York Times, 30 April 2003.
Chapter 5. The New Ordering Principle
248 As I later wrote of Emily, "she is the girl that lived."
My wife and I kept a diary of our daughter's medical treatments called
"The Emily Updates: A Year in the Life of a Three-Year-Old Struggling with Cancer."
The unpublished manuscript is still used for educational purposes at Georgetown University Hospital.
OVERTAKEN BY EVENTS
251 In fact, we spent almost no time...International Security Dimension Project."
Materials relating to all aspects of the project, including the final report,
can be found online at www.nwc.navy.mi/y2k.
253 Then an article was posted...muckraking journalist Jack Anderson.
Jack Anderson and Jan Moller, "The Government's Secret Y2K Plans," Deseret News, 3 May 1999,
found online at www.deseretnews.com.
254 In the end, plots to attack...were likewise discovered and derailed.
For good coverage of this trial and the associated plot,
go to PBS.org and the coverage provided by Frontline,
found online at www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/trail/.
256 It was not just Vice President...sent away to "undisclosed locations."
Barton Gellman and Susan Schmidt,
"Shadow Government Is at Work in Secret:
After Attacks, Bush Ordered 100 Officials to Bunkers Away from Capital to Ensure Federal Survival,"
Washington Post, 1 March 2002.
256 Americans did buy more guns.
Al Baker, "Steep Rise in Gun Sales Reflects Post-Attack Fears," New York Times, 16 December 2001;
Al Baker, "Fed Feeds a New Bull Market in Private Security Services," New York Times, 27 October 2001;
Michael McCarthy, "Fear Industry Booms as Uneasy Citizens Seek Safety," USA Today, 8 August 2002;
and Barnaby J. Feder, "A Surge in Demand to Use Biometrics," New York Times, 17 December 2002.
256 Many people could not sleep...medication at significantly higher rates.
Linda Carroll,
"Sleepless Nation: What Can You Do to Put Terrorism Fears and Anthrax Anxiety to Rest at Night?,"
MSNBC.com, 24 October 2001, found online at www.msnbc.com/news/646055.asp;
MSNBC News Services, "Six in 10 Take Bioterror Precautions:
Poll Suggest Anthrax Worries Affect Most Americans," MSNBC.com, 8 November 2001,
found online at www.msnbc.com/news/654679.asp;
Abigail Trafford, "Terror Attacks the Mentally Ill," Washington Post, 23 October 2001;
and Tamar Levin, "Bioterrorism and Anxiety Are Swelling Prescriptions," New York Times, 1 November 2001.
256 Civil rights groups reported...Muslims in both America and Europe.
Darryl Fears, "Hate Crimes Against Arabs Surge, FBI Finds," Washington Post, 26 November 2002;
Craig S. Smith, "Racism Up After 9/11, European Monitor Says," New York Times, 11 December 2002;
and Mary Beth Sheridan, "Muslims in U.S. Feel Targeted by Anti-Terror Business Policies,"
Washington Post, 9 July 2003.
256 Governments all over the world...(Russia's struggle with Chechnya's rebels).
For examples of this phenomenon, see Craig S. Smith,
"China, in Harsh Crackdown, Executes Muslim Separatists," New York Times, 16 December 2001;
Tim Golden, "Buoyed by World's Focus on Terror, Spain Cracks Down in Basque Region,"
New York Times, 29 August 2002;
"For Whom the Liberty Bell Tolls: Almost Everywhere, Governments Have Taken September 11th
as an Opportunity to Restrict Their Citizens' Freedom," The Economist, 31 August 2002;
Associated Press, "One Effect of 9/11: Less Privacy (New Surveillance Laws Passed Worldwide, Report Says),"
MSNBC.com, found online at www.msnbc.com/news/802878.asp;
Michael Wines, "War on Terror Casts Chechen Conflict in New Light:
Ties Are Seen Between Rebels and Foreign Extremists, Bolstering Claims by Russia,"
New York Times, 9 December 2001;
and Serge Schmemann, "Antiterror Actions Can Be Too Harsh," New York Times, 12 January 2002.
256 Insurance companies suddenly...from just in time to just in case.
Dean Starkman, "Moody's Downgrades Securities on Lack of Terrorism Insurance,"
Wall Street Journal, 30 September 2002;
Jackie Spinner, "Firms Rejecting Terror Coverage:
Insurers Say Few Companies Feel Risk, Accepts Costs," Washington Post, 25 February 2003;
Christopher Oster, "War Would Test Statute Governing Terror Insurance,"
Wall Street Journal, 18 March 2003;
Richard Karpinski, "Web Supply Chains Revised," InternetWeek.com, 28 September 2001,
found online at www.internetweek.com/newslead01/lead092801.htm;
"9/11 Insurance Crisis Could Cause Major Property Foreclosures Across the United States,"
Business Facilities: The Location Advisor, May 2002,
found online at www.facilitycity.com/busfac/bf_02_05_statenews.asp.
256 All that remains now...un-American activities in the age of global terrorism.
Adam Liptak, Neil A. Lewis, and Benjamin Wesier,
"After Sept. 11, a Legal Battle on the Limits of Civil Liberty," New York Times, 4 August 2002.
257 There will be other 9/11s until...defense establishment around it.
As far as the Core as a whole is concerned, progress on this front is slow.
For an example of a critical assessment of the Core's ability to withstand future bioterrorism,
see Shankar Vedantam, "WHO Assails Wealth Nations on Bioterror: Coordination of Defenses Poor in Simulation;
U.S. Support for Agency Questioned," Washington Post, 5 November 2003.
THE RISE OF SYSTEM PERTURBATIONS
259 They had backup facilities...business Thursday morning, September 13.
For the details behind this story, see Tom Barbash,
On Top of the World: Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, and 9/11: A Story of Loss and Renewal
(New York: HarperCollins, 2003), pp. 29-44.
260 When the United States took down...afforded unprecedented prominence.
For details, see Thom Shanker, "Conduct of War Is Redefined by Success of Special Forces,"
New York Times, 21 January 2002.
261 When the Arab world saw Marines...world was turned upside down.
For a description of this phenomenon, see Neil MacFarquhar,
"Humiliation and Rage Stalk the Arab World," New York Times, 13 April 2003.
262 This is what Thomas Homer-Dixon calls "complex terrorism."
Thomas Homer-Dixon, "The Rise of Complex Terrorism," Foreign Policy, January-February 2002, pp. 52-62.
263 One baby in China...all the follow-on cases he generated.
Donald G. McNeil, Jr., and Lawrence K. Altman, "How One Person Can Fuel an Epidemic,"
New York Times, 15 April 2003.
263 It is quite possible that just one...China's sizzling GDP growth for the year.
For the story of the physician who is believed to have triggered many of the cases in Hong Kong,
see Ellen Nakashima, "SARS Signals Missed in Hong Kong:
Physician's Visit May Have Led to Most Known Cases," Washington Post, 20 May 2003.
263 China tried its usual...want to avoid even more bans on travel!"
For details, see Rob Stein, "WHO Tells Travelers to Avoid Hong Kong, China:
U.N. Group Takes Unprecedented Step to Stem Epidemic," Washington Post, 3 April 2003.
263 Political leaders in China...SARS cases would be punished most severely.
See John Pomfret, "Underreporting, Secrecy Fuel SARS in Beijing, WHO Says,"
Washington Post, 17 April 2003;
Peter Wonacott, Norihiko Shirouzu, and Jon E. Hilsenrath,
"Foreign Firms Face Setbacks as SARS Cases Mount in China," Wall Street Journal, 23 May 2003;
and John Pomfret, "China Orders End to SARS Coverup: Belated Campaign Against Disease Begins,"
Washington Post, 19 April 2003.
264 A Chinese news media outlet...senior party corruption anytime soon.
For details, see Geoffrey York, "SARS Crisis Emboldens China's Media," The Globe & Mail, 14 June 2002;
and John Pomfret, "China's Crisis Has a Political Edge:
Leaders Use SARS to Challenge Recalcitrant Parts of Government," Washington Post, 27 April 2003.
265 But because 9/11 begat anthrax mania...launching the Doha Round.
For some great coverage of this fascinating story line, see Louis Uchitelle,
"Globalization Marches On, as U.S. Eases Up on the Reins," New York Times, 17 December 2001;
"Dealing with Anthrax: Patent Problems Pending:
The Rich World Should Apply the Same Rules to Drugs in Poor Countries as at Home,"
The Economist, 27 October 2001;
"World Trade Organization: A Deal at Doha?:
The Launch of a Round of Global Trade Talks Is Close, If Politicians Compromise,"
The Economist, 3 November 2001;
and Joseph Kahn, "Nations Back Freer Trade, Hoping to Aid Global Growth," New York Times, 15 November 2001.
266 At that point, the Core's...said in effect, "Over our dead bodies!"
Tom Hamburger, "U.S. Flip on Patents Shows Drug Makers' Growing Clout:
Political Donors Get Help in Reversing Policy on Poor Nations' Access to Cheaper Medicine,"
Wall Street Journal, 6 February 2003.
266 So, needless to say...as they crank out AIDS cocktail drugs cut-rate.
Geoff Winestock and Neil King, Jr.,
"Patent Restraints on AIDS Drugs to Be Eased for Developing World," Wall Street Journal, 25 June 2002.
266 More progress on many such fronts...quite frankly-too Gap-oriented.
Andrew Pollack, "Drug Makers Wrestle with World's New Rules:
A Delicate Balance: Patriotism vs. Business," New York Times, 21 October 2001.
THE GREATER INCLUSIVE
268 The signs are all around...assassinations of terrorist targets upon sighting.
David Johnston and David E. Sanger,
"Yemen Killing Based on Rules Set Out by Bush," Washington Post, 6 November 2002.
268 The Justice Department...priorities before 9/11, and a new one afterward.
Adam Clymer, "How Sept. 11 Changed Goals of Justice Dept.:
Fighting Terror Didn't Lead Ashcroft's List," New York Times, 28 February 2002.
268 That changes not just the...cops get left holding the bag on everything else.
Susan Schmidt, "Counterterrorism, Cybercrime Are Focus of FBI's Overhaul,"
Washington Post, 4 December 2001;
and Gary Fields and John R. Wilke, "The Ex-Files: FBI's New Focus Places Big Burden on Local Police:
With Terror Its Top Priority, Bureau Pulls Resources from Core Crime Fighting:
Little Time for Bank Heists," Wall Street Journal, 20 June 2003.
268 When the Attorney General says...that is a new rule set.
Dan Eggen, "Neighborhood Watch Enlisted in Terror War:
Citizens Urged to Step Up in $2 Million Expansion," Washington Post, 7 March 2002.
268 When three out of every four mayors...screaming out for a new rule set.
Jodi Wilgoren, "At One of 1,000 Front Lines in U.S., Local Officials Try to Plan for War,"
New York Times, 19 June 2002.
268 When the FBI Director opens a new office in Beijing, that is a new rule set.
Elisabeth Rosenthal, "The F.B.I.: Ashcroft Says U.S. Will Place Agents in China,"
Washington Post, 25 October 2002.
268 When the Coast Guard revamps...that is a new rule set.
Edward Walsh, "For Coast Guard, Priorities Shifted on September 11:
Focus Is on Defense Against Terrorism,"
Washington Post, 26 November 2001;
and William Booth, "Where Seas Meet Shore, Scenarios for Terrorists:
Nation's Vulnerable Ports Revamp Defenses," Washington Post, 3 June 2002.
268 When Washington, D.C., gets sensors...scream out "WE ARE HERE!"
Spencer S. Hsu, "In Wind, a Reply to Terror: Region Gets First Fallout Sensors,"
Washington Post, 2 June 2003;
Philip Shenon, "Missile Threat Is Bringing Stricter Rules for Airports,"
New York Times, 30 March 2003;
James Dao, "With Rise in Foreign Aid, Plans for a New Way to Give It,"
New York Times, 3 February 2003;
Jessica T. Mathews, "September 11, One Year Later: A World of Change,"
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Policy Brief Special Edition), August 2002;
| Dana Priest and Dan Eggen, "Bush Aides Consider Domestic Spy Agency:
Concerns on FBI's Performance Spur Debate of Options," Washington Post, 16 November 2002;
and Dana Priest, "CIA Is Expanding Domestic Operations: More Offices, More Agents with FBI,"
Washington Post, 23 October 2002.
272 Within a short time...within eight to nine minutes-all at the push of a button.
For details, see David A. Fulghum, "Huge Promise, Nagging Concerns,"
Aviation Week & Space Technology, 18 August 2003.
274 It turns out this particular go-fast...big numbers only that time of year.
But since al Qaeda-linked terrorists have posed as fishermen in the past,
there is no simple way to discount any ship our Navy comes across.
For an example, see Marc Lacey, "Kenya Terrorists Posed as Fishermen, Report Says,"
New York Times, 6 November 2003.
THE BIG BANG AS STRATEGY
281 Of course, there are always plenty...nutty views to only the fringe types.
For some great examples of conspiracy theories, see Josh Tyrangiel,
"Did You Hear About...The Search for Answers and a Blizzard of Information
Have Made WTC Rumors as Ubiquitous as Flags," Time, 8 October 2001;
and Kevin Sack, "Apocalyptic Theology Revitalized by Attacks:
Calling 9/11 a Harbinger of the End Times," New York Times, 23 November 2001.
281 But then you get the Prime Minister...for very cynical purposes.
Recently retired Mahathir Mohamad, the longtime Prime Minister of Malaysia,
made this controversial statement in a speech
opening the summit of the fifty-seven-nation Organization of the Islamic Conference in Kuala Lumpur;
for details, see Alan Sipress, "Malaysian Calls on Muslims to Resist Jewish Influence,"
Washington Post, 17 October 2003.
283 Nonetheless, conspiracy theories abound...staged the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
For details, see Ian Johnson, "Conspiracy Theories About Sept. 11 Get Hearing in Germany:
Distrust of U.S. Fuels Stories About Source of Attacks;
Videos, Hot-Selling Books," Wall Street Journal, 29 September 2003.
284 It is a task we face throughout the Gap...and a deficit of security.
The magnificent inaugural report from the UN Development Programme entitled
Arab Human Developmen\t Report 2002 notes that,
"Out of seven world regions, the Arab countries had the lowest freedom score in the late 1990s."
The report cites the "three deficits" as defining the Arab world's lack of development:
"the freedom deficit; the women's empowerment deficit; and the human capabilities/knowledge deficit
relative to income"; cited from p. 27.
285 As a 2002 UN report noted...even lower than Sub-Saharan Africa."
Arab Human Development Report 2002, p. 29.
285 Recent opinion polls...people wish to emigrate to other countries-half!
Arab Human Development Report 2002, p. 30;
see also Afshin Molavi, "Iranian Youths Seeking to Escape:
Bleak Prospects Lead Some Toward Border; Others to Drugs," Washington Post, 7 September 2003.
Not surprisingly, the second Arab Human Development Report (2003)
highlighted the Bush Administration's tightening of visa restrictions
as a major hindrance to social progress in the Arab world.
Arab students studying in the United States dropped by roughly one-third in 9/11's aftermath.
285 The bin Ladens of that region...moving away from all that Westoxification.
For the origins and use of this term, see "The Curse of Westoxification: And the Roots of Discontent,"
The Economist, 18 January 2003.
291 These disenfranchised urban youth...recruits for terrorist groups.
Craig S. Smith, "Saudi Idlers Attract Radicals and Worry Royals," New York Times, 17 December 2002.
291 As Paul Wolfowitz has said...that this effort once made so much sense.
Paul Wolfowitz, "Support Our Troops," Wall Street Journal, 2 September 2002.
293 Israel's population agrees to this wall...from a youth-bulging Palestine.
For details on the long-term population-growth issues that complicate
any Israel-Palestinian peace agreement, see Guy Chazan,
"An Old Heresy Haunts Israel: What If the Palestinians Reject a State of Their Own?"
Wall Street Journal, 21 July 2003.
Chapter 6. The Global Transaction Strategy
298 It is merely to serve as globalization's bodyguard...throughout the Gap.
I first explored this concept in Thomas P. M. Barnett and Henry H. Gaffney, Jr.,
"Globalization Gets a Bodyguard," Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, November 2001, pp. 50-53.
THE ESSENTIAL TRANSACTION
304 Besides strengthening its ability...arms, money, and intellectual property.
Moises Naim explores the last five flows (drugs, people, arms, money and intellectual property)
in his "The Five Wars of Globalization," Foreign Policy, January-February 2003, pp. 28-37.
305 Historical data demonstrate...reduce your attractiveness to foreign investors.
For example, see OECD Economic Outlook No. 7, June 2003.
306 Even South Korea...suffers from its proximity to its evil twin.
James Brooke, "Unwanted Attention for Korea: Worry Over the North Hurts the South's Economy,"
New York Times, 15 April 2003.
311 The same can be said for Japan...sports the world's largest bond market.
Phred Dvorak and Todd Zaun, "Japan's Bond Market: Too Big?" Wall Street Journal, 16 July 2003.
311 As the recent Core-wide...(U.S., EU, Japan) now rise and fall together.
Joseph Kahn, "The World's Economies Slide Together into Recession," New York Times, 25 November 2001.
311 One day China suffers SARS...and a collapse in tourism.
Renowned expert on the Chinese economy Andy Xie of Morgan Stanley was quoted early in the crisis
as saying, "The economy has come to a standstill."
Cited in Keith Bradsher, "Outbreak of Disease Forces Steep Plunge in Chinese Economy,"
New York Times, 28 April 2003.
311 The Chinese leadership...despite all those canceled business trips.
Peter Wonacott and Karby Leggett, "Despite SARS, China's Economy Bounces Back,"
Wall Street Journal, 14 July 2003.
Interestingly enough, Morgan Stanley withdrew its forecasts of lower GDP for China for the year
once the crisis was seen as abating due to the government's positive response.
312 As Krugman argues...but it's not an experiment anyone wants to try."
Paul Krugman, "The China Syndrome," New York Times, 5 September 2003.
314 In fact, we do well to encourage specialization...and peacekeeping.
For the best example of a country whose military is embracing that sort of specialization,
see Matthew Brzezinski, "Who's Afraid of Norway?:
She May Look Like G.I. Jane, but Defense Minister Kristin Krohn Devold Has Made Her Country's Military
the Model for Small Nations That Want a Meaningful Role in World Affairs,"
New York Times Magazine, 24 August 2003, pp. 24-28.
THE SYSTEM ADMINISTRATOR
315 He wanted a copy of an article I had written immediately following Y2K.
Thomas P. M. Barnett, "Life After DoDth or: How the Evernet Changes Everything,"
Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, May 2000, pp. 48-53.
317 The Coast Guard is essentially lost...tasks the U.S. Navy is keen to avoid.
For a good description of this, see John Mintz and Vernon Loeb,
"Coast Guard Fights to Retain War Role:
'Slack-Jawed' over Criticism from Rumsfeld, Service Cites Its Battle Capabilities,"
Washington Post, 31 August 2003.
318 But this time, many were used...military installations around the world.
For a good overview of what eventually unfolded, see Thom Shanker and Eric Schmitt,
"Reserve Call-Up for an Iraqi War May Equal 1991's:
To Guard Against Terror: Activation of Around 265,000 Would Help Protect Sites in U.S. and Overseas,"
New York Times, 28 October 2002.
318 Then came the hard part...manage the transition and eager as hell to leave.
See Steven Lee Myers, "Anxious and Weary of War, G.I.'s Face a New Iraq Mission,"
New York Times, 15 June 2003.
318 The warrior force was...into an occupation force.
Some of the best immediate coverage of this turn of events is found in Rajiv Chandrasekaran,
"Inexperienced Hands Guide Iraq Rebuilding," Washington Post, 25 June 2003;
William Booth, "Ad-Libbing Iraq's Infrastructure:
U.S. Troops Face Daily Scramble in 'Bringing Order to Chaos,'" Washington Post, 21 May 2003;
and David Luhnow, "Amid Shortages, New U.S. Agency Tries to Run Iraq:
Miscues on Advance Planning Draw Fire, but Electricity and Police Patrols Are Up,"
Wall Street Journal, 5 June 2003.
For a Bush Administration reply to such criticism, see Donald H. Rumsfeld,
"Beyond Nation-Building," Washington Post, 25 September 2003.
319 "Military operations other than war"...country's entire defense budget.
The President's request of 7 September 2003
included approximately $65 billion for defense and intelligence requirements
related to the occupation of Iraq. By comparison, the highest credible estimates of Chinese defense spending
are in the $60 billion to $70 billion range, or severalfold above the official Chinese figure
of approximately $15 billion.
319 Outside of Vietnam...way below .500, and that has to end.
A Carnegie Endowment study on U.S. nation-building efforts following invasions across the twentieth century
estimated that in only four of sixteen cases did the U.S. effort leave behind
a functioning democracy ten years later.
See Minxin Pei and Sara Kasper, Lessons from the Past:
The American Record of Nation Building,
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Policy Brief No. 24, May 2003.
320 The Leviathan's speed of command...to mount coherent defenses.
My earliest descriptions of the Leviathan force are found in my article
"The Seven Deadly Sins of Network-Centric Warfare,"
Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, January 1999, pp. 36-39.
321 These groups...in any postwar or disaster environment but safe as well.
This was not the case in the early months of the U.S. military occupation of postwar Iraq.
For details, see Ian Fisher and Elizabeth Becker,
"The Reconstruction: Aid Workers Leaving Iraq, Fearing They Are Targets,"
New York Times, 12 October 2003.
321 The Sys Admin's decision loops...live with each other over the long haul.
For an excellent overview of this troubled relationship, see Adam Siegel,
"Civil-Military Marriage Counseling: Can This Union Be Saved?" Special Warfare, December 2002, pp. 28-34.
321 All the broken windows will be fixed...after we "bring the boys home."
The best single exploration of this subject is by Bradd C. Hayes and Jeffrey I. Sands,
Doing Windows: Non-Traditional Military Responses to Complex Emergencies
(Washington, D.C.: National Defense University, 1997).
As a side note, the Defense Department continues to rethink the use of certain ammunition
so as to diminish the postconflict dangers not only to civilians but also to its own troops.
For a good example, see Michael M. Phillips and Greg Jaffe,
"Pentagon Rethinks Use of Cluster Bombs:
Thousands of Unexploded Bomblets Impede Military Movement, Kill Civilians,"
Wall Street Journal, 25 August 2003.
321 It will remain a secret society...military operations within the homeland.
The Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 basically prohibits U.S. military forces
from acting as a domestic police force, except when allowed by Congress.
322 Moreover, as the world's largest...a moneymaker for developing nations.
UN peacekeeping missions pay approximately $1,100 per soldier per month to governments supplying troops.
According to Michael Sheehan, former UN Assistant Secretary General for Peacekeeping,
"The cash flow has a huge impact on budgets, so there is enormous incentive to be involved."
For details, see Alix M. Freedman, "First World Nations in Effect Pay Those of Third to Handle Missions:
U.N. Peacekeeping Allowance Can Add Up to Real Money for Developing Countries,"
Wall Street Journal, 1 October 2003.
323 The Sys Admin force will be civil affairs-oriented...international protocols?
For an example of what the U.S. military was missing in its approach to occupying postwar Iraq,
see Christopher Cooper, "As U.S. Tries to Bring Order to Iraq, Need for Military Policy Is Rising,"
Wall Street Journal, 21 August 2003.
325 Nuclear weapons will not be sanitized...sources of existential deterrence.
For some background on this issue and the current efforts within the Defense Department
to rethink the utility of nuclear weapons, see Michael R. Gordon,
"Nuclear Arms: For Deterrence or Fighting?" New York Times, 11 March 2002;
and Walter Pincus, "Future of U.S. Nuclear Arsenal Debated:
Arms Control Experts Worry Pentagon's Restructuring Plan Means More Weapons,"
Washington Post, 4 May 2003.
THE AMERICAN WAY OF WAR
327 In January 1998..."Network-Centric Warfare: Its Origins and Future."
Arthur K. Cebrowski, Vice Admiral, U.S. Navy, and John J. Gartska,
"Network-Centric Warfare: Its Origins and Future,"
Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, January 1998, pp. 28-35.
327 So much so that my first act...where Art's article had been published.
Barnett, "The Seven Deadly Sins," Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, January 1999.
332 When Art Cebrowski and I...war on terrorism will be won.
Arthur K. Cebrowski and Thomas P. M. Barnett, "The American Way of War,"
Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, January 2003, pp. 42-43.
333 Here is how I choose to define them:
This section is based on a list of such rules ("The Top 100 Rules of the New American Way of War")
that I published with Henry H. Gaffney, Jr., in the British Army Review (Spring 2003), pp. 40-45.
I acknowledge this list is, at times, more prescriptive than descriptive.
Chapter 7. The Myths We Make (I Will Now Dispel)
THE MYTH OF GLOBAL CHAOS
347 Apparently, despite all this conflict...at the end of the Cold War.
For World Bank figures, see most recent edition of World Development Indicators.
347 According to the University of Maryland's...since the early 1960s."
Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr, Peace and Conflicts 2003:
A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy
(College Park, Md.: University of Maryland, 2003),
found online at www.cidcm.umd.edu/peace_and_conflict_2003.asp, p. 12. This annual report is hands down the best of its kind.
348 That would be us-the United States.
Data compiled by SIPRI.
For details, see Web site of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute at www.sipri.se/.
348 So busy, yes, but all over the planet? Not exactly.
Data drawn from Cobble et al., For the Record, p. 33 and Appendix 1.
348 When measured as a percent...20 percent of the time in the 1990s.
Cobble et al., For the Record, pp. 40-41.
349 Today, the total is...the lowest numbers since 1960.
Marshall and Gurr, Peace and Conflict 2003, p. 30.
THE MYTH OF AMERICA AS GLOBOCOP
351 For example, Colombia is a dangerous...who gets to control particular regions.
For a description, see Scott Wilson, "Venezuela Becomes Embroiled in Columbian War:
Reports of Bombed Villages on Northeastern Frontier Point to Military Support for Guerillas,"
Washington Post, 10 April 2003.
352 Add it all up...of 191 states currently belonging to the United Nations.
Marshall and Gurr, Peace and Conflict 2003, pp. 9-11.
353 This theory of crime prevention...emboldened and commit more crimes.
For one of the earliest and best descriptions of this crime-prevention strategy,
see James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling, "Broken Windows: The Police and Neighborhood Safety,"
The Atlantic Monthly, March 1982, pp. 29-38.
THE MYTH OF AMERICAN EMPIRE
357 So there are those who speak of...to ensure order and stability."
Stephen Peter Rosen, "The Future of War and the American Military:
Demography, Technology and the Politics of Modern Empire,"
Harvard Magazine, May-June 2002, pp. 29-39.
359 Most nationalism around the world...linked to current grievances.
Minxin Pei, "The Paradoxes of American Nationalism," Foreign Policy, May-June 2003, pp. 31-37.
359 Perhaps the worst definitions...and desires to become stronger.
The most thoughtful version of this frequent argument comes from Robert Jervis,
"The Compulsive Empire," Foreign Policy, July-August 2003, pp. 83-87.
359 Somehow, the fact that America...peacekeepers after the fact.
For a glorious example of how these sorts of data calculations can be pursued to absurd conclusions,
see the Center for Global Development and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's
"Commitment to Development Index" in Foreign Policy, May-June 2003, pp. 56-66.
361 We topple the extremist regime...and the Taliban finds it perverse.
Erik Eckholm, "In Kandahar, a Top School Reopens, and Girls Are Welcome,"
New York Times, 23 December 2001;
Carlotta Gall, "Long in Dark, Afghan Women Say to Read Is Finally to See,"
New York Times, 22 September 2002;
and Pamela Constable, "Afghan Women Take Radio Liberties:
Tiny Station Transmitting Message of Support to a Largely Illiterate Female Populace,"
Washington Post, 3 November 2003.
362 But clearly, the most radical change...Donnelly so aptly describes it.
Thomas Donnelly and Vance Serchuk,
"Toward a Global Cavalry: Overseas Rebasing and Defense Transformation,"
American Enterprise Institute Online, 20 June 2003,
found online at www.aei.org/publications..
362 This radical repositioning of U.S. military bases...Core-Gap divide.
For a good overview of how the distribution of U.S. military bases around the world
has changed since the end of the Cold War, see Bruce Falconer,
"The World in Numbers: U.S. Military Logistics," The Atlantic Monthly, May 2003, pp. 50-51.
363 Concerns over American "empire"...Kennedy at the end of the Cold War.
Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers:
Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1987).
364 If America offers a convincing case...defined by the Gap's elimination.
The "unipolar moment" concept originates with Charles Krauthammer,
"The Unipolar Moment," Foreign Affairs, Winter 1990/91, pp. 23-33.
Chapter 8. Hope Without Guarantees
368 I know not everyone... "hope without guarantees."
J.R.R. Tolkien used this phrase when describing his treatment
of the character "Gandalf" (Lord of the Rings) in a letter
to Michael Straight, New Republic editor, January 1956,
found online at www.tolkienonline.com.
369 We will accomplish this best by being explicit...we enter the Gap.
I first explored this concept in Thomas P. M. Barnett,
"The 'Core' and 'Gap': Defining Rules in a Dangerous World," Providence Journal, 7 November 2002.
370 As Art Cebrowski likes to say...combat is bigger than shooting."
Quoted in John T. Bennett, "Cebrowski Calls for New Training Methods for Combat, Postwar Ops,"
Inside the Pentagon, 11 September 2003.
373 Full of regional area experts...then doing its best to fulfill that prophecy.
True to form, the State Department "foresaw" all the difficulties of the postwar occupation of Iraq,
and just as true to form, the Defense Department ignored their concerns because
State always tells Defense that what they are trying to achieve is virtually impossible.
For details on this case, see Eric Schmitt and Joel Brinkley,
"State Dept. Study Foresaw Trouble Now Plaguing Iraq:
Some Say Pentagon First Ignored Warnings on Security, Utilities and Civil Rule,"
New York Times, 19 October 2003.
374 Here I agree with Newt Gingrich...complete overhaul and now.
See Newt Gingrich, "Rogue State Department," Foreign Policy, July-August 2003, pp. 42-48.
374 The model of this approach...peacekeeping forces were locally derived.
For a good overview, see Alex de Waal, "S.O.S. Africa," Wall Street Journal, 6 August 2003.
374 Here, the best example comes from Chad...economic development.
Roger Thurow and Susan Warren,
"In War on Poverty, Chad's Pipeline Plays Unusual Role:
To Unlock Buried Wealth, Nation Gives Up Control over Spending Its Cash,"
Wall Street Journal, 24 June 2003.
374 Finally, the Core's foreign aid...connectivity throughout the Gap.
For examples of this general trend, see David Barboza,
"Development of Biotech Crops Is Booming in Asia," New York Times, 21 February 2003;
and Justin Gillis, "To Feed Hungry Africans, Firms Plant Seeds of Science,"
Washington Post, 11 March 2003.
375 These approaches, when combined...redirecting that time toward education.
For a good example, see Roger Thurow,
"Makeshift 'Cuisinart' Makes a Lot Possible in Impoverished Mali:
It Can Do Work in a Flash, Leaving Time for Literacy and Entrepreneurship,"
Wall Street Journal, 26 July 2002.
375 This organization would focus...once bad leadership has been removed.
Sebastian Mallaby, "The Lesson in MacArthur," Washington Post, 21 October 2002.
376 The fact that UN Secretary General...before the decade ends.
Annan broached the subject in his annual report to the General Assembly, delivered 8 September 2003;
see Felicity Barringer, "Annan Wants Security Council to Grow to Better Reflect World,"
New York Times, 9 September 2003.
377 The outlines of the great compromise...and foreign direct investment.
Some commentators, like Thomas Friedman,
go so far as to say that the U.S. government's continued subsidization of U.S. farmers
indirectly fuels terrorism around the world;
see his "Connect the Dots," New York Times, 25 September 2003.
378 This group was led by China, India...all key pillars of the New Core.
For details, see Steven Pearlstein, "Trade and Trade-Offs," Washington Post, 10 September 2003;
Elizabeth Becker, "Coming U.S. Vote Figures in Walkout at Trade Talks:
American Farm Provisions Are a Key Issue," New York Times, 16 September 2003;
Pascal Lamy, "Post-Cancun Primer: My WTO 'Q & A,'" Wall Street Journal, 23 September 2003;
and Larry Rohter, "New Global Trade Lineup: Haves, Have-Nots, Have-Somes,"
New York Times, 2 November 2003.
378 When the United States needed to sell...or well over $100 billion.
Details come from Floyd Norris, "Foreigners May Not Have Liked This War, But They Financed It,"
New York Times, 12 September 2003;
and Peter S. Goodman, "U.S. Debt to Asia Swelling: Japan, China Lead Buyers of Treasuries,"
Washington Post, 13 September 2003.
379 He has treated his own people...countryside in the late 1990s.
For descriptions, see Carl Gersham, "North Korea's Human Catastrophe,"
Washington Post, 17 April 2003;
Robert Windrem, "Death, Terror in N. Korea Gulag," MSNBC, 15 January 2003,
found online at www.msnbc.com/news/859191.asp;
Doug Struck, "Opening a Window on North Korea's Horrors:
Defectors Haunted by Guilt for the Loved Ones Left Behind,"
Washington Post, 4 October, 2003;
and Peter Maass, "The Last Emperor Kim Jong Il," New York Times Magazine, 19 October 2003, pp. 36-47.
380 If that is not enough, then Iran...and al Qaeda in particular.
For details on the Iranian government's "Jerusalem Force,"
which trains, arms, and collaborates with foreign terrorist groups in the region, including al Qaeda,
see Dana Priest and Douglas Farah, "Iranian Force Has Long Ties to Al Qaeda,"
Washington Post, 14 October 2003.
380 Once this happens...rebel groups within that failed state.
For a description of the most recent American effort to effect a "Colombianization"
of the war effort there, see Scott Wilson, "U.S. Makes Plans to Give War Back to Colombia:
Involvement Will Decline After Hunt Ends for Americans," Washington Post, 9 March 2003.
380 The shift to natural gas alone..."trust fund" model of nondevelopment.
For examples of how the Saudis are rethinking foreign investment with regard to natural gas,
see Heather Timmons, "Saudis Trying to Drum Up Investment in Gas Fields," New York Times, 22 July 2003.
381 U.S. pressure in this regard...and non-Muslims with great suspicion."
Zakaria, Future of Freedom, p. 145.
381 The biggest danger China faces...a collapse of its financial system.
For details, see Kathy Chen, "Surge in Lending in China Stokes Economic Worries:
Spending Investment Sprees Point to Overheating; Bad Debts Are on the Rise,"
Wall Street Journal, 3 October 2003.
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