Contents

I. Description of  decision event goals

II. General description of decision event format and conceptual approach

III. Detailed schedule and instructions for preparation

IV. List of scheduled participants (with links to online bios)

V. Web sites you may want to check out before coming

VI. Additional administrative details

VII. Short bios of all scheduled participants and NWC personnel

I. Decision Event Goals

• Generate "new maps" of global energy market relationships based on a clearer understanding of the developmental challenges faced by major Asian economies over the coming decade
  
  

• Delineate the key scenario variables and dynamics likely to emerge as Asia's energy needs balloon in the coming years, focusing on possible regional flashpoints
  
  

• Construct comprehensive downstream scenarios capturing both the regional and global adjustments to Asia's energy expansion.

II. Decision Event Format

• Approximately 30 participants drawn equally from the financial community, the political-military community, and the regional expert community
  
  

• Each session will involve both facilitated discussion by the group as a whole and individual participation in collective brainstorming tasks employing a decision software system known as GroupSystems (with each participant entering data anonymously via a dedicated laptop and all participants interacting asynchronously with one another's inputted ideas via a portable Local Area Network); overall we anticipate about 4 hours of group discussions and 3 hours of group brainstorming via laptops
  
  

• No papers are to be presented, and no preparation is required beyond perusing the final read-ahead package, which will be posted about a week before the event
  
  

• The three working sessions will involve a cumulative exploration of a rough "influence net" model that we are constructing regarding the key dynamics of Asia's energy future and its impact on the global economy and security environment.  The figure presented below represents--in a reduced fashion--an opening draft of an appropriate influence net.

Session I (New Maps) will focus on the inner most two circles (The Choice and The Players). 

Sessions II a + b (Scenario Dynamics) will focus on the middle two circles (The Players and The Unfolding). 

Session III (Downstream Scenarios) will focus on the outer most two circles (The Unfolding and The Adjustment).

III. Decision Event Schedule/Instructions

MONDAY, 01MAY00
WORLD TRADE CENTER ONE, NEW YORK CITY

0730
Check in at Windows on the World [Floor 107] and continental breakfast
Please present yourself to the security desk downstairs NLT 0730, identifying yourself as a guest of Cantor Fitzgerald at the "Asian Energy Futures" meeting at Windows on the World


0800   
Welcoming comments
--Dr. Lawrence Modisett, Director, Decision Strategies Department
--VADM Arthur Cebrowski, President of the U.S. Naval War College
--Hon. Jerry Hultin, Under Secretary of the Navy
--Adm. William Flanagan, Senior Managing Director, Cantor Fitzgerald

0810   
Introduction to GroupSystems: Start-up brainstorming exercise
--Prof. Bradd Hayes
You will be asked to participate in a short brainstorming exercise (here: give us the year of Asia's next financial crisis and offer a rationale for you choice) designed to familarize you with the basic tasks we'll ask you to perform within GroupSystems throughout the rest of the day--namely, entering in new ideas, commenting on the ideas of others, and voting.

0830
Project brief 
--Dr. Thomas Barnett, NewRuleSets.Project director
You will be asked to comment on a draft matrix of Key Scenario Dynamics for the future of energy developments in Asia.  The matrix is presented below.

Session I
0900   
Drawing "new maps" of global energy relationships:  playing "The List" game (based on the cable network VH-1's show of the same name)
You will be asked to nominate countries and/or non-state actors (e.g., international organizations, groups) for the following "best awards":

• Best New Villain
  Country/non-state actor most likely to prove disruptive to Asian energy developments

• Best New Ingenue
  Asian country/non-state actor most likely to seek U.S. security assistance/assurances due to emerging  energy developments

• Best New Odd Couple
  Most unusual/unexpected alliance of Asian countries/non-state actors due to emerging energy developments

• Best New  Long-Distance Romance
  Most significant alliance of Asian country/non-state actor with another from different region of the world (e.g., North America, South America, Europe, Mideast, or Africa)

• Most Likely to Get Hitched
  Countries most likely to achieve lasting economic alliance via energy pipelines

• Most Likely to Get Dumped
  Country most likely to have its energy imports disrupted 
  
  

0915   
Faciliated discussion of generated lists
You will be asked to debate the candidates submitted for the six categories, and during this discussion you can also offer specific commentary on each candidate via your laptop. 

1000   
Wrap-up voting on each list
You will be asked to vote for your favorite entry in each of the six categories.  

1015   
Coffee break

Session II (A)
1030   
Exploring key scenario dynamics in Asia's energy future: "You make the call!" (predicting shifts in percentage shares of energy categories for specific Asian countries and the region as a whole as we move from 2000 toward the 2020 timeframe)
You will be shown the current energy profile of the country(ies) in question (expressed as percentage breakdown by major category--namely, oil, natural gas, coal, and renewable), as well as the expected total energy requirement for 2020, and you will be asked to proposed a new percentage breakdown for the 2020 timeframe.

•  You make the call: Asia 

• You make the call: Japan

• Facilitated discussion

• You make the call: India

• Facilitated discussion

• You make the call: China

• Facilitated discussion

• You make the call: Rest of Asia (ROA)

• Facilitated discussion

• Roll-up presentation of "calls" offered for China, India/South Asia, and ROA

• Brainstorming session: key roadblocks in Asia's energy future.

1200   
Lunch

Session II (B)
1300   
Gaming key scenario flashpoints in Asia's energy future: Emails to a friend in need of advice as the crisis looms
You will be presented with 3 scenario vignettes involving various energy sector developments in Asia in the 2010-2020 timeframe.  In each instance, you will be asked to respond to one or more frantic email requests for advice from an old friend who currently serves as a top policy adviser to the President/Prime Minister of Country X.  In your email responses, you should offer the following sort of advice:

• Your definition of what's really at risk in this situation

• Your sense of some action that the political leader must take immediately

• Your sense of some action that the political leader must clearly avoid taking.

We will spend approximately 40 minutes each on three scenario flashpoints:

• Mini-brief on Flashpoint Oil: gist of the scenario is a geo-political situation created by China's significant long-term direct investment in Iran's oil production facilities; flashpoint is China's tankers showing up at a U.S. naval blockade in the Persian Gulf, demanding access to "their oil" 

• Email Session: you can respond to emails from top policy advisers representing the leaders of the United States, China, and/or Iran 

• Facilitated discussion of Flashpoint Oil

• Mini-brief on Flashpoint Natural Gas: gist of the scenario is a geo-financial situation created by development of natural gas pipeline grid that greatly interlinks Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Bangladesh and involves Western private-sector financing to an unprecedented degree for the region as a whole; flashpoint is nuclear forces alert in Pakistan triggered by a border clash with India in the Kashmir region and Islamabad's subsequent threat to cut off of all transiting pipelines 

• Email Session: you can respond to emails from top policy advisers representing the leaders of the United States, India, and/or Pakistan

• Facilitated discussion of Flashpoint Natural Gas

• Mini-brief on Flashpoint Coal: gist of the scenario is a geo-environmental situation created by angry withdrawal by India and China from "Son of Kyoto" agreement on CO2 emission limits; flashpoint is announcement of joint effort to dramatically increase mining and production of coal resources in defiance of impending economic sanctions by U.S. Congress  and Japanese Diet

• Email Session: you can respond to emails from top policy advisers representing the leaders of the United States, China, and/or Japan

• Facilitated discussion of Flashpoint Coal

1500   
Break

Session III
1515   
Building long-term outcome scenarios for Asia's energy future: Headlines from the Future
You will be presented with 4 long-term outcome scenarios for Asian energy developments, based on two simple questions:

• Will the region's growing energy requirements be achieved by a reliance more on traditional state-based strategies (e.g., energy-as-security paradigm featuring strategic diplomacy and resource management) or more progressive market-based strategies (e.g., energy-as-commodity paradigm featuring transparent capital markets and independent energy industries)?
  
  

• Will the region's growing energy requirements be achieved by a reliance more on high-carbon content energies of the past (e.g., more coal and oil) or low-carbon content energies of the future (e.g., natural gas, hydrogen, nuclear, renewable)?

These two questions generate four possible outcomes, as depicted below:

This session will be distributed across the following schedule:

• GroupSystems brainstorming session where you'll be asked to generate newspaper headlines we'd be likely to see in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal in the 2020 timeframe across each of the four outcome scenarios

• Facilitated discussion of four outcome scenarios

• GroupSystems brainstorming session where you'll be asked to choose which Asian countries are likely to end up in which outcome scenarios

• Further facilitated discussion of four outcome scenarios, with special attention on the role the U.S. Government can play in enabling best-case outcomes

• Final GroupSystems brainstorming/voting session where you'll be asked to nominate names for each outcome scenario and vote on which is best.
  
  

1700   
Final comments and wrap-up
Every participant will be given a final chance to offer commentary on the day's events.


1730   
Adjourn; cocktails

IV. Workshop Participants

The table below lists the workshop participants.  Short bios for some appear directly below on this page.  More complete bios are accessed via the provided links within the table.

V. Useful Background Links

Subject Matter

• Dept. of Energy's Energy Information Administration Home Page: http://www.eia.doe.gov/

• Dept. of State's Regions/Country Information Page: http://www.state.gov/www/regions.html

• Dept. of Commerce's International Trade Administration Page: http://www.ita.doc.gov/

• The White House's China Trade Relations Working Group Page: http://www.chinapntr.gov/

• Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Internat'l Activities Page: http://www.epa.gov/oiamount/

• International Energy Agency's Home Page: http://www.iea.org/homechoi.htm

• Asian Development Bank's Home Page: http://www.adb.org/

Hosts

• U.S. Naval War College (NWC): http://www.nwc.navy.mil/

• NWC's Center for Naval Warfare Studies: http://www.nwc.navy.mil/cnws/

• NWC's Decision Strategies Department: http://www.nwc.navy.mil/dsd/

• Cantor Fitzgerald Home Page: http://www.cantor.com/

• eSpeed Home Page: http://www.espeed.com/

• Windows on the World Home Page: http://www.windowsontheworld.com/

VI. Administrative Details

• For administrative questions regarding the project or this decision event, please contact Ms. Lynda Miller (phone: 401.841.1798; fax: 401.841.1901).  If for any reason she cannot be reached in a timely fashion, please contact Project Director Thomas Barnett (phone: 202.841.1798; fax: same).
  
  
• For two map views of the World Trade Center's location in Manhattan (identified by the number 1 in a black circle), see below:

  

  

VI. Short Bios of Select Participants 

David Baldwin
Prof. Baldwin is the Ira D. Wallach Professor of World Order Studies and Political Science at Columbia University.  He is the author of Economic Statecraft: Paradoxes of Power and the editor of East-West Trade and the Atlantic Alliance. Prior to joining Columbia, he serves as professor at Dartmouth College.  Dr. Baldwin won the Kammerer Award from the American Political Science in 1986.  He holds an MA and PhD from Princeton University.

Thomas Barnett
Dr. Barnett is Professor and Senior Strategic Researcher at the Decision Strategies Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies.  Prior to joining the College, he served as Project Director for The CNA Corporation of Alexandria, Virginia, where he managed the USAID account.  His most recent work, "Life After DODth or: How the Evernet Changes Everything," appears in the May 2000 issue of the U.S. Naval Institute's Proceedings.  He has a BA in Russian Literature and U.S. Foreign Policy from the University of Wisconsin, and an MA in Eurasian Studies and a PhD in Government from Harvard University.

Commander Carl Carlson, USN
Commander Carl G. Carlson has served the Naval War College, Newport, RI since December 1998 as the Assistant Director of the Decision Strategies Department. Prior, he was the Light Airborne Multi-purpose System surface combat system project team leader, and the surface combatant remote mine-hunting SQQ-89 ship integration coordinator on the staff of the Program Manager for Surface ASW Combat Systems in the Program Executive Office for Undersea Warfare. Cdr. Carlson has a BS in Systems Engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy, a MS in Operations Research from the Naval Post Graduate School, and a MA in Strategic Studies from the Naval War College. 

James Caverly
Jim Caverly is currently in the Deputy Director for National Security, Office of Science and Technology Policy at the Department of Energy (DOE) . He has been with the Department and its predecessor agencies for over 20 years, working on a broad range of energy related issues including energy security, domestic energy supply, nuclear safeguards and security, energy emergency response, and national security. He is a graduate of the University of Notre Dame and the Naval War College and served for three years as the DOE Chair on the faculty of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF).

Vice Admiral Arthur Cebrowski, USN
Vice Admiral Cebrowski became the 47th President, Naval War College in July 1998.  He had previously served as Director, Navy Space, Information Warfare, Command and Control.  Vice Admiral Cebrowski has commanded Fighter Squadron 41 and Carrier Air Wing EIGHT, both embarked in USS NIMITZ.  He later commanded the assault ship USS GUAM.  During Operation Desert Storm, he commanded the aircraft carrier USS MIDWAY.  Following promotion to flag rank, he became Commander, Carrier Group SIX and Commander, AMERICA Battle Group.  In addition to combat deployments to Vietnam and the Persian Gulf, he has deployed in support of United Nations operations in Iraq, Somalia and Bosnia.  Vice Admiral Cebrowski holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics from Villanova University and a Master of Science Degree in Computer Systems Management from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.

Alberto Coll
Alberto R. Coll is Dean of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies at the US Naval War College.  Dr. Coll was born in Havana, Cuba. He came to the United States in 1968 and in 1977, he received a B.A, with Honors in History from Princeton University, and later earned a J.D. and a Ph.D. in government and foreign affairs from the University of Virginia, with "highest distinction" in international politics and theory.  In 1982 he joined the Government Department at Georgetown University, where he taught international relations, law and organization. In 1986 he accepted an appointment to the Naval War College and subsequently was asked to occupy the College's oldest chair, the Charles H. Stockton Chair.  From 1990 to 1993, Dr. Coll served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict.  From 1993 to 1999, he served as Professor of Strategy and Policy at the U.S. Naval War College.

Capt. Dave Duffie
Captain Duffie reported to the US Naval Academy in June 1971. Following graduation with a BS in Systems Engineering, his First assignment was USS Narwhal from January 1977 to July 1980. He served as engineer officer on USS Henry Clay from July 1980 to July 1983, and then as Director, Officer Department at Nuclear Power School until July 1985. Captain Duffie served as executive officer of the USS Louisville from August 1985 to November 1987. He was then assigned to the Bureau of Personnel in Washington, DC until November 1989. Captain Duffie had command of USS Helena from August 1990 to July 1992. He then reported to the COMSUBPAC staff from July 1992 to July 1994. He attended the National War College, where he received a Master of Science Degree in National Security Strategy in June 1995. He then served on the Joint Staff at the Pentagon. He is currently a Navy Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Dennis Eklof
Dr. Eklof currently serves as Senior Director of Cambridge Energy Research Associates.  His expertise includes: Asian economics, energy markets and strategies, policy developments, energy supply and demand trends; long-range energy infrastructure requirements; downstream trends and strategies, including petroleum refining, energy pricing dynamics, trading, and oil price risk management; and strategic planning, competitive energy strategies, and interfuel competition.  Previously, he has served as: Vice President and General Manager of Energy and Chemicals Group, Data Resources, Inc. (DRI); Energy Group Vice President, Systems and Technology, McGraw-Hill; and Manager of Marketing, Western Oceanic Inc., an international offshore drilling contractor.  He holds a BS and PhD from Johns Hopkins University.

Admiral William Flanagan, USN (ret.)
"Bud" Flanagan is a Senior Managing Director at Cantor Fitzgerald LP, the world's largest broker of U.S. Government securities, Eurobonds, and sovereign debt.  The admiral's portfolio focuses on emerging markets, particularly those brought about by government deregulation and privatization.  He served in the U.S. Navy for 29 years, his final position being Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Atlantic Fleet from 1994-96, with geographic responsibilities for the entire Western Hemisphere and all of West Europe.  Adm. Flanagan is a graduate of the Massachusetts Maritime Academy, and holds a BS in Maritime Transport and an MA in Political Science from American University.

Ellen Frost
Ellen L. Frost, a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington DC, is currently co-chairing a major study for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps on the impact of globalization on national security and maritime strategy.  From February 1993 to June 1995, Dr. Frost was Counselor to the U.S. Trade Representative.  During the 1980s she worked in the private sector, serving as Corporate Director for International Affairs in the Washington office of United Technologies Corporation (1988-91) and as Director for U.S.-Japan Relations in the Washington office of Westinghouse Electric Corporation (1981-88). From 1977 to 1981, Dr. Frost was Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Economic and Technology Affairs at the Department of Defense. Her government experience also includes positions within the U.S. Treasury Department (1974-77), the U.S. Senate (1972-74), and the Department of State (1963).  Dr. Frost holds a Ph.D. degree from the Department of Government at Harvard University, awarded in 1972; an M.A. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy; and a B.A. from Radcliffe College.

Philip Ginsberg
Dr. Ginsberg is a Senior Vice President at Cantor Fitzgerald, the world's largest broker of U.S. Government securities, Eurobonds, and sovereign debt.  He is also Vice President of the Cantor Fitzgerald Foundation and Director of Cantor Fitzgerald International.  Prior to this, Dr. Ginsberg served as a consultant to both industry and government, and held academic postings at the University of Washington, Rutgers University, and Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.  He also founded the Llorex Corporation, which specialized in financial information products.  He has a BA in Mathematics from Cornell University, and an MA and PhD in Economics from Purdue University.

David Gordon
Dr. Gordon was appointed National Intelligence Officer for Economics and Global Issues in May 1998.  Before joining the National Intelligence Council, he was Senior Fellow and Director of U.S. Policy Program at the Overseas Development Council.  From 1993 to 1995, he was a senior professional staff member on the House International Relations Committee.  From late 1991 to 1993, he worked as an international economics consultant for Abt Associates.  Between 1989 and 1991, he served as the regional economic policy and governance advisor for eastern and southern Africa for the U.S. Agency for International Development, based in Nairobi, Kenya.  In the 1980s, Dr. Gordon pursued an academic career with a joint appointment at the University of Michigan and Michigan State University.  Dr. Gordon is a graduate of Bowdoin College and undertook graduate studies in both political science and economics at the University of Michigan, where he received his PhD in 1981.

Bradd Hayes
Professor Bradd C. Hayes is a Senior Strategic Researcher in the Decision Strategies Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies, US Naval War College. He has been a member of the faculty since August 1992, previously serving as Assistant Director of the Strategic Research Department. Prior to that, he was the Strategy and Policy Officer for the Commander in Chief, US Naval Forces Europe. Previous appointments included command of Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron Six aboard USS Enterprise, followed by a tour as a Federal Executive Fellow with the RAND Corporation, culminating with the publication of a RAND Note entitled, Naval Rules of Engagement: Management Tools for Crisis.

Gregg Hoffman
Prof. Hoffman currently serves in the U.S. Naval War College's Decision Strategies Department, where he helped design and set up the original Decision Strategies Center.  Since the beginning of operations in October 1995, he's been responsible for DSD technical operations, including LANs, display capabilities, and VTC; instrumental in designing and equipping new DSC in McCarty Little Hall.  Prior Experience: 23 years in USN, Interior Communications Chief /Surface Warfare (Ret.), served at United States Naval War College as multimedia coordinator (92-96), commissioned the lead ship in the class, USS Wasp (LHD-1) serving as leading chief of Electrical Division of the Engineering Department (88-92), and served at Presidential Retreat Camp David as the Classified Maintenance Chief of electronic security (83-88).

Jerry Hultin
The Honorable Jerry MacArthur Hultin was sworn in as the 27th Under Secretary of the Navy on November 13th, 1997 after nomination by President Clinton and confirmation by the United States Senate. Mr. Hultin has been a business consultant and attorney in Ohio and Washington, D.C., for the past 25 years, specializing in strategic growth and financial matters for both large and small corporations and state agencies. Born in Lansing, Michigan, Mr. Hultin attended Ohio State University, graduating in 1964 with a Bachelor of Arts degree and a commission in the Navy. He served in destroyers from 1964-1966, making two deployments to the Western Pacific in support of U.S. forces in Vietnam. On shore duty, Mr. Hultin served at the Pacific Fleet Drone Anti-Submarine Helicopter (DASH) Training Command at San Clemente Island, California. Following completion of his active duty service, Mr. Hultin attended Yale Law School, graduating in 1972.

David Jhirad
Dr. David J. Jhirad is the Senior Advisor for Multilateral and Bilateral Affairs at the US Department of Energy. He served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Energy Policy, Trade and Investment in the Office of Policy and International Affairs over the period 1995-1999. Dr. Jhirad also serves as the Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the lead U.S. representative to the Energy Working Group, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Prior to assuming his position in the Clinton Administration, Dr. Jhirad served as Senior Energy Advisor in the U.S. Agency for International Development in Washington, D.C.  He holds a Ph.D in Applied Physics from Harvard University, (1972) where he won the Bowdoin Prize for excellence in research. He also holds B.A. and M.A. degrees in Physics and Applied Mathematics from Cambridge University, and a B.Sc.(Hons) degree in Physics from Delhi University.

Lawrence E. Modisett
Dr. Modisett is Director of the Decision Strategies Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies.  In this capacity he oversees and participates in a wide variety of national security studies.  Dr. Modisett's fields of expertise include international affairs, national security issues, and Russia and Eastern Europe.  His prior government service includes a 19-year career as Analyst and Manager at the Central Intelligence Agency, and a three-year stint in the U.S. Information Agency as a member of the Foreign Service.  He has a BA in English from Ohio Wesleyan University, and an MS in Foreign Service and a PhD in History from Georgetown University.

Commander Mark Montgomery, USN
Mark Montgomery is a Director for Transnational Threats at the National Security Council, where he serves in the office of the National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection and Counter-Terrorism. Cdr. Montgomery is a surface warfare officer in the United States Navy.  From 1988 to 1998 he served in a number of shipboard assignments, including USS BAINBRIDGE (CGN 25), USS LEFTWICH (DD 984) as Operations Officer, USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT (CVN 71), as Reactor Electrical Assistant, and most recently as Executive Officer on the USS ELLIOT (DD 967). Cdr. Montgomery graduated from the University of Pennsylvania receiving B.A. and M.A. degrees in History and Political Science. He was commissioned in the United States Navy through the NROTC program. He subsequently attended Oxford University, where he earned a Master’s in Modern History. 

Minxin Pei
Minxin Pei’s research covers a wide range of subjects: Chinese politics, economic reform, East Asian politics, U.S. relations with East Asian countries, and democratization in developing countries. He has published extensively on these topics. Before joining the Endowment, Minxin Pei was a faculty member in the Politics Department at Princeton University and had received numerous prestigious awards and fellowships, including the Olin Faculty Fellowship, the National Fellowship at Hoover Institution, the Robert S. MacNamara Fellowship of the World Bank, and the LaPorte Preceptorship at Princeton University. He holds a doctorate in political science from Harvard University. His current research project is the politics of legal reform in China.

Robert Randolph
Robert C. Randolph was sworn in as assistant administrator for Asia and the Near East of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) on Oct. 29, 1998. Randolph came to USAID from Seattle, Wash., where he served as an international mediator and arbitrator for the Washington Arbitration & Mediation Services.  From 1994 to 1997, Randolph was Washington State special trade representative. Before working for the state, Randolph was an attorney for the Hendricks & Lewis law firm in Seattle from 1992 to 1994.  Randolph served as managing director of a Singapore-based public company, Chloride Eastern Industries, LTD, from 1988 to 1991. He was law partner and managing director for MacDonald Hoague & Bayless in Seattle from 1975 to 1988 and a law clerk for the U.S. District Court in Richmond, Va.from 1974 to 1975.  Mr. Randolph received his bachelor's degree in English with high honors from the Virginia Military Institute. As a Rhodes Scholar, he earned a second bachelor's degree and a master's degree from Magdalen College, Oxford University. Randolph received his J.D. degree cum laude from Harvard Law School.

Leif Rosenberger
Dr. Rosenberger is the Economic Advisor to Admiral Blair, Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Pacific Command. In addition, he supports the J2 and JICPAC as the Command’s chief economic intelligence analyst.  Before coming to CINCPAC in 1998, Dr. Rosenberger was Professor of Economics for 10 years at the US Army War College. Dr. Rosenberger has also worked in the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College. In addition, he was a Soviet foreign policy/Asian analyst at CIA and a defense economist at DIA. Dr. Rosenberger is a 1989 graduate of the US Army War College, where he was a winner of the student writing award. He holds a Ph.D. from Claremont Graduate School, a Masters from Boston University and a BA from Harvard University, where he was the only two-sport, six letter winning athlete to graduate with honors in 1972. 

Paul Taylor
Ambassador Taylor joined the Decision Strategies Department in June 1998 after a career in the United States Foreign Service and four years as an international business executive. From 1992 to 1994, he was Professor and International Affairs Adviser to the President of the Naval War College.  From 1988 to 1992, he served as U.S. Ambassador to the Dominican Republic. Previous assignments include Deputy Assistant Secretary of State responsible for relations with Mexico and economic relations with Latin America and the Caribbean. Prior to that, he was assigned for periods of two to four years each in Ecuador, Thailand, Brazil, Spain and Guatemala. He served for two years on the staff of the Peace Corps in Washington and in Ecuador and was on active duty as a commissioned officer in the U.S. Navy, 1960-1963. He studied economics at Harvard, where he received an MPA in 1967, and politics at Princeton leading to an AB magna cum laude in 1960. 

Katsuaki Terasawa
Dr. Katsuaki L. Terasawa joined the Croft Institute and faculty of the School of Business Administration in 1998. He currently teaches global economic issues, international trade and open macroeconomics. His research interests include East Asian security and economics as well as global environmental issues. He has taught economics at California Institute of Technology, UCLA and the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, where he was Director of the Military Economic Strategy Center for Asia. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Kansas in 1972. Outside the academic realm, he served as a senior economist and as a manager at NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab (renewable energy system project), a senior staff member at Caltech's Environmental Quality Lab (Los Angeles basin air pollution abatement project) and a senior economist at the RAND Corporation (government procurement project; U.S.-Japan Relations Center). Dr. Terasawa also serves as associate director of the Croft Institute on a half-time basis.