Press coverage appearing in Defense News Quarterly Report : 

Divergent Groups View U.S. Security in New Way: Unique Exercise Assesses Impact Of Global Issues   
[4 December 2000] 

By ROBERT HOLZER, Defense News Staff Writer

NEWPORT, R.I.--Analysts with the Naval War College here have developed a new type of 21st century war game that brings divergent groups of experts together to assess global issues that will affect U.S. national security in coming decades.

Called NewRuleSets.Project, the effort is envisioned as a two-year effort by the Decision Strategies Department at the college to hold five workshops assessing an economic topic deemed to hold future national security implications, officials said.

"We like to emphasize that it is a different approach to explaining issues--it is much more than a war game," said Lawrence Modisett, chairman of the Decision Strategies Department.

Two workshops, one on the future of energy in Asia and the other on the implications of direct foreign investment in nations' economies, have been held to date, officials said.  The findings of these workshops are considered so important that they will be presented to the National Intelligence Council in Washington during a special session Dec. 6, officials here said.

The council is composed of experts from throughout the intelligence community who have detailed knowledge on geographic regions and thematic international issues, such as weapons proliferation.

"The more people who see the brief, the more the interest [in the project] seems to grow," said Modisett.

What makes the NewRuleSets.Project so different, and enables alternative conclusions to be reached, lies in the diverse set of participants who play in each game [see box below], college officials said.

"It is essential that these two worlds--
military and financial--come to better
understand their interrelationships
across the global economy."
                                                                        Thomas Barnett
                                                            Project director

For example, in the Asian energy game there were representatives from Wall Street investment firms, executives from energy companies, military officers and regional experts.  This rich mix of expertise produces the differing slant on the issues under discussion, officials said.

"That is the most unusual thing--drawing together a group of disparate officials and keeping them at the table," said Rear Adm. Michael McDevitt, director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, Va., and a participant in one of the exercises.  "It is an intriguing way to get at the issue of predicting the future."

The Naval War College conducts the exercises in collaboration with the New York-based bond brokerage firm of Cantor Fitzgerald, which recruits participants from the financial world and supplies the meeting room in the World Trade Center building, officials said.

The exercises more clearly demonstrate the increasing link between economic security and national security, exercise developers said, even though the topics might not, as first look, appear so related.

"In the end, the military and financial markets are in the same business: the effective processing of risk," said Thomas Barnett, the project's director.  "As such, it is essential that these two worlds--military and financial--come to better understand their interrelationships across the global economy."

In the Asian energy exercise, for example, the most salient point to emerge from the day-long discussion is that environmental security, as a byproduct of the search by Asian nations to use energy differently, could emerge as a serious issue in the 21st century, according to Barnett.

"In short, the subject of environmental stress will become part and parcel of international security debates in the 21st century, and Asian economic growth will drive much of this discussion," Barnett said.

Other energy issues unearthed during the exercise are that the choices that China and India make in terms of the type of energy they seek to emphasize will have enormous implications for the region, world economic impact and ultimately U.S. national security policy, Barnett said.  Moreover, U.S. dependence on oil from the Persian Gulf will continue to wane while it increased for nations in Asia.

This means that U.S. protection of oil coming from the gulf region will transform into a global economic issue rather than than a national economic issues as is now the case, Barnett said.

"We like to emphasize that is is
a different approach to explaining
issues--it is much more than a
war game."
                                                                        Lawrence Modisett
                                                           Naval War College
                                        Decision Strategies Deparment

Issues such as trade and energy "don't seem to hold the same weight as 10 or 15 years ago, and how the military factors into these is increasingly significant," he said.  Bringing participants from many backgrounds allows the link between national security and economic issues to emerge and be addressed.

In addition to the events held on Asian energy and direct foreign investment, other exercises are being planned to assess international security implications that might arise from such topics as infrastructure protection, food and water, and demographics and the environment, Barnett said.

The NewRuleSets.Project "does seem to light a lot of fire under people.  This creates a dialogue that many people think is painfully lacking," he said.

The Players NewRuleSets.Project challenges the traditional way of doing war games, bringing together participants from diverse fields.  The U.S. Naval War College, Newport, R.I., recently held an exercise to assess Asian energy futures and their impact on U.S. national security.  The participating groups were: FOREIGN POLICY National Intelligence Council National Security Council U.S. Agency for International Development MILITARY Center for Naval Warfare Studies Undersecretary of the Navy U.S. Naval War College U.S. Pacific Command ENERGY U.S. Department of Energy Caithness Energy Cambridge Energy Research Associates FINANCIAL Cantor Fitzgerald eSpeed Morgan Stanley Dean Witter New York Mercantile Exchange Poten Partners Sino-American Development Corp. RESEARCH Council on Foreign Relations Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Institute for International Economics National Defense University Columbia University University of Mississippi Source: NewRuleSets.Project DEFENSE NEWS/Nathaniel Levine

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