NewRuleSets.Project Summary Page

PROJECT SUMMARY

Please contact Project Director Tom Barnett regarding any questions.

Project Goals

Explore how globalization and the rise of the New Economy are generating new rule sets with regard to how nation-states and national economies interact with one another
Determine how these new rule sets alter the basic "rules of the road" in the international security environment
Link these changes in the international security environment to the U.S. Navy's current quest for a "transformation strategy," with special reference to how these changes may redefine the U.S. Navy's historic role as "security enabler" of America's commercial network ties with the world
Translate these changes in the international security environment into conceptual paradigms of use to strategic planners in the international financial community
Generally deepen the cross-cultural understanding both sides--the Pentagon and Wall Street--bring to the table during periods of overlapping geo-strategic and geo-economic instability.

Project Team Members

Private-Sector Advisors

Major Project Events

CONCLUDED

Asian Energy Futures Decision Event, 1 May 2000, World Trade Center One, New York City
Foreign Direct Investment Decision Event, 16 October 2000, World Trade Center One, New York City
Joint Workshop with the National Intelligence Council to review the results of project to date, 6 December 2000, The CNA Corporation Building, Alexandria, Virginia
Dr. Barnett's presentation, "Alternative Global Futures and Asian Security," presented to the naval symposium, MARITIME POWER--CHALLENGES IN THE 21ST CENTURY, on the occasion of the Government of India's first ever International Fleet Review, 16Feb01, Mumbai, India
Asian Environmental Solutions Decision Event, 4 June 2001, World Trade Center One, New York City

FUTURE PLANS

Food and Water Decision Event (forecast for Fall 2001)
Critical Assets of the New Economy Decision Event (forecast for Spring 2002).

Project Products

Each decision event will contribute to a "master brief" that we will deliver to interested parties as the project unfolds.

Click here to view the NRS Project Master Brief Slides

The following organizations have received the project summary brief in one form or another (in addition to all of the organizations whose representatives attended the events described below):

Center for Naval Analyses

Central Intelligence Agency

The Arlington Institute

Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy

U.S. Naval War College

Center for Strategic Studies

U.S. Agency for International Development

Cantor Fitzgerald

National Intelligence Council

Office of Net Assessment, Department of Defense

Office of Asst. Secy. of Defense (International Security Affairs)

eSpeed

Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University

Mahan Scholars, U.S. Naval War College

National Journal

Defense News

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

National Defense University (NDU)

N51, OPNAV

Indiana State University

MSNBC

Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College

Office of the Chief of Naval Operations

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Industrial College of the Armed Forces

School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University

"Rising India" Working Group, CSIS

Independent Market Services

CO2e.com

Environmental Defense

New England Retired Flags Conference, U.S. Naval War College

NDU Globalization and the Navy Symposium

U.S. Naval Institute

Wall Street Journal

Naval Warfare Development Command

Secretary of the Navy Gordon Englund

U.S. Naval War College's Current Strategy Forum

Naval War College Foundation.

Each event will likewise generate a stand-alone report that will be posted at this website and available in hard-copy format.

Asian Energy Futures Event Report

Foriegn Direct Investment Event Report

Asian Energy Futures Event
(01May00)

Read-Ahead Package

Road Show Brief

Event Report

This event was hosted by Cantor Fitzgerald/eSpeed at World Trade Center One, New York City.

We designed the Asian Energy Futures decision event with these major goals in mind:

Generate "new maps" of global energy market relationships based on a clearer understanding of the developmental challenges faced by major Asian economies over the coming decade
Delineate the key scenario variables and dynamics likely to emerge as Asia's energy needs balloon in the coming years, focusing on possible regional flashpoints
Construct comprehensive downstream scenarios capturing both the regional and global adjustments to Asia's energy expansion.

The Asian Energy Futures event basically explored, over four substantive sessions, a rough "influence net" model that we’ve constructed regarding the key dynamics of Asia's energy future and its impact on the global economy and security environment:

Concerning “The Choice,” we conducted one session called “You Make the Call! Participants were shown the current energy profile of the country(ies) in question (expressed as percentage breakdown by major category—namely, oil, natural gas, coal, and renewable), as well as the expected total energy requirement for 2020, and were asked to propose a new percentage breakdown for the 2020 timeframe. We did separate mini-sessions on Japan, India, China, the rest of Asia, and Asia as a whole.
Concerning “The Players,” we conducted a session called “The List” (based on the cable network VH-1's show of the same name). Participants were asked to nominate countries and/or non-state actors for the following "best awards": Best New Villain, Best New Ingénue, Best New Odd Couple, Best New Long-Distance Romance, Most Likely to Get Hitched, and Most Likely to Get Dumped (these categories are explained in detail in later slides).
Concerning “The Unfolding,” we conducted a session called “Scenario Flashpoints,” where participants wrote advisory emails to the leaders of countries involved in three crisis scenarios: oil blockade/sanction vignette, gas pipeline disruption vignette, and coal emissions/air pollution vignette.
Concerning “The Adjustment,” we conducted a session called “Headlines from the Future,” where participants named four long-term outcome scenarios for Asian energy developments, brainstormed likely headlines found along each pathway, and decided which Asian states are most likely to end up in each scenario.

All of these participant brainstorming sessions were captured in the GroupSystems software program for our subsequent analysis.

The following individuals participated in this workshop:

Dr. David Baldwin, Columbia University
Mr. Jim Bishop, Caithness Energy
Mr. Jim Caverly, Department of Energy
VAdm. Arthur Cebrowski, USN, U.S. Naval War College
Dr. Alberto Coll, Center for Naval Warfare Studies
Capt. Dave Duffie, USN, Council on Foreign Relations
Dr. Dennis Eklof, Cambridge Energy Research Associates
Mr. Mike Feeley, Sino-American Development Corporation
Adm. William Flanagan, USN (ret.), Cantor Fitzgerald
Dr. Ellen Frost, Institute for International Economics/National Defense University
Mr. Doug Gardner, eSpeed
Dr. Philip Ginsberg, Cantor Fitzgerald
Dr. David Gordon, National Intelligence Council
Under Secretary of the Navy Jerry Hultin
Dr. David Jhirad, Department of Energy
Cdr. Mark Montgomery, USN, National Security Council
Mr. Roy Nercesian, Poten Partners
Dr. Minxin Pei, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Mr. Robert Randolph, U. S. Agency for International Development
Dr. Leif Rosenberger, U.S. Pacific Command
Amb. Paul Taylor, Center for Naval Warfare Studies
Dr. Katsuaki Terasawa, University of Mississippi
Mr. Neal Wolkoff, New York Mercantile Exchange
Mr. Lundy Wright, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.

Foreign Direct Investment Event:
"3 + x(Developing Asia) = Triad Squared?" (16Oct00)

Read-Ahead Package

Road Show Brief

Event Report

This event was hosted by Cantor Fitzgerald/eSpeed at World Trade Center One, New York City.

We designed the Foreign Direct Investment event with the following goals:

Generate a "relationship profile" delineating how both Asia and the West must adapt past practices to meet the coming challenges of Developing Asia's huge demand for foreign direct investment (FDI)*
Explore the key scenario variables and dynamics likely to emerge as Developing Asia's FDI requirements balloon in the coming years, focusing on the need for viable rule sets underpinned by a stable regional security environment
Determine which political-military instability scenarios present the greatest potential to ruin Developing Asia's FDI climate
Construct realistic downstream scenarios (covering the next 10 years) capturing Developing Asia's movement toward, or away from, a shared FDI rule set with the world's leading economies (i.e, the Triad of the U.S., EU and Japan "squared" to include a fourth leg—Developing Asia).

The Foreign Direct Investment event basically explored, over five substantive sessions, a rough "influence net" model that we constructed to describe the key dynamics of Developing Asia’s ability to attract outside investment and that flow’s long-term impact on the global economy and security environment:

Concerning "The Blend," we conducted two sessions. In the first session called "Where Asia Gets the Money," participants were asked to determine the likely global pool of FDI stock for the year 2010 and then, through a series of "drill down" votes, determine how much of the total global pool would likely end up in Developing Asia. In the second session called "Energy Case Study," we reviewed the findings from the Asian Energy Futures event and asked participants to brainstorm reasons why state governments in Developing Asia should play a lesser or larger role in developing the energy sector.
Concerning "The Players," we conducted one session called "Build Your Own Free Trade Zone." This voting process was based on the same logic of "connectivity" that fuels the popular movie trivia game known as Six Degree of Kevin Bacon, or The Kevin Bacon Game. In this effort, we asked participants to build three separate free trade zones, and then, by comparing the three groups, drew some conclusions about which Developing Asian states offer the greatest financial connectivity to the region as a whole.
Concerning "The Unfolding," we conducted two sessions. In the first session called "Pick Your Dream Investment Partner," we had participants brainstorm ideas about what makes Developing Asia more or less attractive as a target for FDI, as well as what makes the U.S., the European Union and Japan more or less attractive as Developing Asia’s sources of FDI. This session was based on the 1960s American television game show called The Dating Game. In the second session called "Scenario Flashpoint," we examined how a future collapse of the North Korean regime would impact the region’s overall FDI climate, with our participants writing advisory emails to various involved political leaders.
Concerning "The Adjustment," we conducted one session called "Rule Set Scenarios." In this voting process we asked the participants to name and populate—using "Headlines from the Future" —a quartet of long-term FDI climate scenarios for Developing Asia.

All of these participant brainstorming and voting sessions were captured by the GroupSystems software program for our subsequent analysis, along with our notes of the accompanying discussions.

The following individuals participated in the day-long workshop:

Mr. Mark Arens, U.S. Joint Forces Command
Dr. James Auer, Vanderbilt University
Mr. Guy Caruso, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mr. James Caverly, Department of Energy
VAdm. Arthur Cebrowski, USN, U.S. Naval War College
Mr. Thomas Cunningham, Emcor Group
Dr. Peter Dombrowski, Center for Naval Warfare Studies
Mr. Mike Feeley, Sino-American Development Corporation
Adm. William Flanagan, USN (ret.), Cantor Fitzgerald/eSpeed
Dr. Philip Ginsberg, Cantor Fitzgerald/eSpeed
Mr. Jeffrey Goetz, Poten and Partners
Dr. David Harries, Waterpeople Inc./Maccaferri Consulting
Mr. Russell Hayward, Dynamic Strategies Asia
Mr. Jeff Huang, Golden Calf Capital
Dr. Gary Hufbauer, Institute for International Economics
RAdm. Michael McDevitt, USN (ret.), Center for Strategic Studies/CNA
Mr. Edward McDougal, Lehman Brothers
RAdm. Barbara McGann, USN, U.S. Naval War College
Mr. Jim Miller, Hagler Bailly
Deputy Under Secretary of the Navy Charles Nemfakos
Dr. Minxin Pei, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Mr. John Pike, Zentrale Commerzbank AG
Dr. Jonathan Pollack, Center for Naval Warfare Studies
Mr. Lucian Pugliaresi, LPI Consulting Inc.
Ms. Smita Purushottam, Ministry of External Affairs (India)/Weatherhead Center
Dr. Leif Rosenberger, U.S. Pacific Command
Ms. Elisabeth Scheper, Netherlands Org. for Internat’l Cooperation/Weatherhead Center
Capt. Peter Swartz, USN (ret.), Center for Strategic Studies/CNA.

National Intelligence Council Workshop:
New Rule Sets in Asia on Energy & Investment? (06Dec00)

Event description

This next "mini-event" in the NRS series involved convening, in conjunction with the National Intelligence Council, a select audience of senior leaders from the intelligence and think tank communities to review and discuss the findings of the first two events in the project:

The Center for Strategic Studies hosted the event at the headquarters of The CNA Corporation in Alexandria VA.

Among those who participated in the day-long workshop are the following:

Dr. John Baskin, National Intelligence Council
Mr. James Caverly, Department of Energy
Dr. Bruce Elleman, Center for Naval Warfare Studies
Dr. Henry H. Gaffney, Jr., Center for Strategic Studies/CNA
MGen. John R. Landry, USA (ret.), National Intelligence Council
RAdm. Michael McDevitt, USN (ret.), Center for Strategic Studies/CNA
Dr. Robert Magner, Center for Strategic Studies/CNA
Mr. Clyde Owan, National Intelligence Council
Dr. Leif Rosenberger, U.S. Pacific Command.

Barnett presentation to Indian Navy:
Alternative Global Futures and Naval Security (16Feb01)

Special Report "Alternative Global Futures & Naval Security"

Dr. Barnett's article "India's 12 Steps to a World-Class Navy"

This symposium, "Maritime Power--Challenges in the 21st Century," was hosted by the Indian Navy's Western Naval Command, Mumbai, India, as part of India's first ever International Fleet Review (15-19 February 2001). The United States Navy was represented by

The Chiefs of Navy Staff/Naval Operations who attended the presentation were:

Australia: VADM David John Shackleton
Iraq: MGEN Yehya Taha Huesh
Israel: VADM Yedidia Shalom Ya'ari
Kenya: MGEN A.A. Rafrouf
Malaysia: VADM Dato Seri Abu Bakar Bin Abdul Jamal
Maldives: LTC Ahmed Jahir
Morocco: CMDE Mohammed Triki
New Zealand: RADM Peter McHaffie
Oman: HH RADM Sayyid Shihab Bin Tariq Al-Said
Qatar: Staff RADM Nasser Abdoullah Al-Noaimi
Russia: ADM of Fleet V.I. Kuroyedov
Singapore: RADM Lui Tuck Yew
South Africa: VADM Johan Frans Retief
Sri Lanka: VADM Daya Sandagiri
United Kingdom: ADM Sir Nigel Essenhigh
Venezuela: VADM Jorge Miguel Sierraalta Zavarce.

Asian Environmental Solutions
(04Jun01)

Read-Ahead Package

This event was hosted by Cantor Fitzgerald/eSpeed at World Trade Center One, New York City.

We designed the Asian Environmental Solutions event with the following goals:

Generate a downstream "decent world" profile delineating how the world--in concert with Asia--develops workable environmental regimes to deal with the region's rapid economic development and the resulting environmental stress
Explore the key scenario variables (e.g., energy, direct investment) and dynamics (e.g., resource competition, political conflicts) likely to emerge in Asia's environmental future
Determine which scenarios of political-military instability present the greatest potential to derail Asia's future environmental solutions
Construct realistic downstream scenarios (covering the next 10-20 years) capturing Asia's movement toward, or away from, a shared environmental rule set with the rest of the world's leading economies.

The Asian Environmental Solutions event involved eight substantive sessions:

CO2day, CO2morrow: Participants were asked to make a series of votes to determine how many Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent (MMTC) will be produced by Developing Asia in the year 2020.
Survivor in Asia--Output, Outgrow, Outwear: Participants were presented with 7 major threats to ecosystem viability in Asia and 6 policy challenges. After discussing each policy challenge, participants "voted off" one of the ecological threats as being the least desired "survivor" in Asia's inevitable march toward future economic development.
Headlines from the Future: Presented with a broad, stressing environmental scenario for Asia as a whole, participants were asked to brainstorm likely headlines from the 2010-2020 timeframe, arraying them across local, national, and international "sections."
Our Environment in Jeopardy!: Participants were presented with three environmental issues and asked to "price" them by determining how various "answers" to key policy questions would be arrayed--or valued--on a Jeopardy game board.
Emails to the Commanders-in-Chief: Participants were presented with a distinct crisis scenario involving environmental stress triggers and asked to write private advisory emails to presidents/premiers/prime ministers from the involved great powers, telling them why they should consider this crisis a national security issue.
And the 2010 Nobel Environmental Prize goes to ...: Participants were presented with a sequential brainstorming activity in which theydetailed how Individual (or Group) X of Country Y was recognized for his/her/their Achievement Z in successfully bringing the global community together over the issue of global warming in the first decade of the 21st century.
Naming Names: Participants were presented with an x-y axis that outlines four possible outcome scenarios for Asian environmental solutions circa 2020 and asked to nominate scenario titles for each.
The Elevator Pitch: Participants were given the opportunity for a final, brief comment in response to a scenario (i.e., you are confronted with the rare opportunity to tell President George W. Bush exactly what you think he needs to remember about the environment.

All of these participant brainstorming and voting sessions were captured by the GroupSystems software program for our subsequent analysis, along with our notes of the accompanying discussions.

The following individuals participated in the day-long workshop:

Mr. Carlton Bartels, CO2e.com
Mr. James Caverly, Department of Energy
VAdm. Arthur Cebrowski, USN, U.S. Naval War College
Dr. Bruce Elleman, U.S. Naval War College
Mr. Mike Feeley, Sino-American Development Corporation
Adm. William Flanagan, USN (ret.), Cantor Fitzgerald/eSpeed
Mr. Mitsuyasu Furukuwa, Mitsui & Co., Ltd.
Dr. Jim Giblin, U.S. Naval War College
Dr. Philip Ginsberg, Cantor Fitzgerald/eSpeed
Dr. David Gordon, National Intelligence Council
Mr. Salman Haidar, fmr Foreign Secretary, Government of India
Ms. Jeanine Hull, Strategic Energy Advisors
Dr. Nancy Kete, World Resources Institute
Ms. Maureen Koetz, Nuclear Energy Institute
Mr. Boyd Montgomery, UNOCAL
Deputy Under Secretary of the Navy Charles Nemfakos
Mr. William Nitze, GEMSTAR Group
Mr. Douglas Paal, Asia Pacific Policy Center
Dr. RK Pachauri, TATA Energy Research Institute
Dr. Minxin Pei, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Mr. John Peterson, The Arlington Institute
Dr. Leif Rosenberger, U.S. Pacific Command
Mr. Stephen Schlaikjer, Department of Navy
Dr. Katsuaki Terasawa, University of Mississippi
Mr. Kaichiro Yonezawa, Mitsui & Co., Ltd.
Maj. Dakota Wood, USMC, Office of Net Assessment.