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U.S. Naval War College[FINAL VERSION POSTED ON 28 DECEMBER 1999]
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Understanding What This Web Site Is All
About
What we present here is not the Decision Support Department's official prediction (we have none) of how Y2K will actually go down around the planet, but rather a reasonable worst-case analysis of what Y2K could look and feel like if it turned out to be a significant influence on the global security environment over the coming months. Visitors to this site will note that we present a complete range of possible scenarios--from quite benign to quite damaging. That we, as a military research organization, focus on the darker-side potential of Y2K should not be viewed by anyone as indicating an increased likelihood that Y2K will be severe or even significant. We're simply looking at darker scenarios because that's what the military essentially gets paid to worry about (i.e., low probability, high impact variables). Let us note, though, that our focus is on the world outside the United States, a country that we--like most experts--expect will come through the Y2K event reasonably well (the big question being, "How much more difficult is the Y2K experience for the rest of the world, and how much should the U.S. care?").
Why make this material available to the general public? We thought it only fair to share our findings since the material is unclassified. Now we know there will be some who will sift through our material (especially the individual inputs we received from our workshop participants) and highlight each and every expression of worst-case concerns in order to exclaim, Aha! I just knew the military really believes it will be horrible, and here's the proof! And frankly, there will always be those fear-mongers among us. But systematically examining a worst-case possibility should not be an exercise in fear, but one of discovery and learning.
If you learn something at this website about what Y2K may yet teach us about the nature of such potential system crises as we become increasingly interconnected and interdependent in a global, information-driven New Economy, then great, for in that case we've provided you the same service we set out to provide to U.S. Government decision makers--namely, opening up their thinking to the full range of possible dynamics, outcomes, and legacies connected to Y2K and the Millennium Date Change Event.
If, however, you insist on leaving here full of fear and anguish (e.g., The military obvious knows more than it's telling us!), then you miss the entire point of this exercise, which we basically liken to checking your blindspot before switching lanes while driving. The vast majority of the time you can switch lanes without turning your neck and checking the blindspot--and nothing will happen. But every so often, something will happen, and it could be bad. Our investigation into the potential negative global impact of Y2K is no different. The odds are low. We'll probably "get away with it" without bumping into any worst-case scenarios. Still, it's better to check out the worst possibilities and think them through beforehand, because knowledge is power.
So, if you want to fill up on fear, there are plenty of
other websites out there to feast on. But if you want to think through Y2K's
potential global downside in a systematic fashion, we think we've done a decent
job of imagining what it would look and feel like. And if there's any feedback
you'd like to offer us on this material, please do so by clicking here.
|
Final
Report |
Press Coverage of the Project
List of Presentations Given
Our summary brief was presented to the following individuals/entities (in addition to representatives from other organizations who attended one or more of our four workshops in 1998-1999):
Workshop
Products
| May Y2K Economic Security Workshop Read-Ahead For Participants | May Y2K Economic Security Workshop GroupSystems Inputs Collected From Participants |
| March Y2K Consequence Management Workshop Read-Ahead For Participants | March Y2K Consequence Management Workshop GroupSystems Inputs Collected From Participants |
| January Y2K Scenario-Dynamics Workshop Read-Ahead For Participants | January Y2K Scenario-Dynamics Workshop GroupSystems Inputs Collected From Participants |
| December Y2K Scenario-Building Workshop Read-Ahead For Participants | December Y2K Scenario-Building Workshop GroupSystems Inputs Collected From Participants |
How to contact Tom Barnett
Click here to email him directly
phone:
401.841.4053
email:
tom@thomaspmbarnett.com
Site's final update occurred on 28 December 1999