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READ-AHEAD PACKAGE FOR
U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
SCENARIO-DYNAMICS WORKSHOP (13-15 JANUARY)
AT PELL CENTER, SALVE REGINA UNIVERSITY
Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project
Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, Director

Contents

• Description of  workshop schedule and instructions for preparation

• Short bios of participants and key project team members

• Breakdown of participants by key subject area (i.e., where we see all of you fitting into our big picture)

• Web sites you may want to check out before coming

• Additional administrative details (POC: Avon Teague; 401.841.1798; teaguea@nwc.navy.mil)

Description of workshop schedule and instructions

Wednesday afternoon orientation/reception (13 January)

12 noon through 2 pm
Check-in and buffet lunch at the Pell Center, Salve Regina University
A Salve Regina bus will depart from the Viking Hotel at approximately noon.  Please try to arrive early enough to be able to mingle with fellow participants for a bit prior to the orientation briefs.

2 pm
Welcoming remarks by Dr. Robert Wood, Dean, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College

2:05 pm
Presentation by Dr. Michael Harrington, Director of The MITRE Corporation's "Y2KP International" project, entitled, "International Issues Associated with the Year 2000 Problem."

3 pm
Presentation by Dr. Richard Landes, Director of Boston University's Center for Millennial Studies, on "Thinking About 'Millennial Mania' as a Baseline Case for Y2K scenarios."

3:45 pm
Break

4 pm
Workshop introduction by Dr. Tom Barnett.
Presentation will include:  1) an overview of the project; 2) an examination of the four Y2K scenarios developed in the December workshop (see slide below); and 3) an explanation of this workshop's eight sessions (detailed below)

EXPLANATORY REMARKS:

• "Run of the 'Mille'" refers to the Best Case Scenario in which Y2K turns out to be nothing more than a lengthy (i.e., stretching over most of 1999 and deep into 2000) series of discrete and episodic network failures, whereas the "systems" in the notional country prove themselves to be relatively robust. By systems, we mean not only network systems, but also economic, political, and social systems.  Although this is the null hypothesis regarding Y2K, we call it "Run of the 'Mille'" (referring to millennium) because the baseline case will therefore become the combination of whatever "millennial mania" occurs in conjunction with the date change and the inevitable hype and hoopla surrounding even a non-existent Y2K event.
• "Humans 1, Computers 0" refers to the Next Best Case Scenario is which Y2K turns out to be both widespread and sustained (meaning a broad, interrelated pattern of network failures whose onset is centered on or about 1 January 2000), but systems within any notional country nonetheless prove themselves to be relatively robust.  The scenario name derives from the Nietzschean notion that "that which does not kill us, makes us stronger," here meaning that humanity comes out on the far side of this experience with a renewed confidence regarding its ability to weather periods of significant instability caused by information technology.
• "Houston, We Have a Problem" refers to the Next Worst Case Scenario in which Y2K turns out to be a lengthy series of discrete and episodic network failures that nonetheless create numerous cascading failures throughout a notional country's systems which turn out to be far less robust than expected.   The scenario name derives from the famous statement offered by a NASA astronaut commander on the Apollo 13 mission to the moon regarding what at first appeared to be a rather small and isolated glitch in the ship's power system, but which later created a cascading set of failures that ultimately derailed the mission and almost caused a catastrophic loss of life.
• "Y2 KO!" refers to the Worst Case Scenario in which Y2K turns out to be both widespread and sustained and any notional country's systems turn out to be more vulnerable than realized.  The scenario name derives from the boxing term, "knockout," or "KO," here meaning that the country is damaged or discombobulated to the extent that it loses the capacity for normal functioning. This dire situation could be considered akin to what some define as a "failed state," such as Somalia or Haiti in the early 1990s, when US and/or UN military forces intervened in what were described as Complex Humanitarian Emergency missions.

5:15 pm
Introduction to GroupSystems by Prof. Hank Kamradt (i.e., familiarizing everyone with their individual laptops and how they connect to the main server that runs the facilitation software).
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll run you through a short drill to make sure you know how to input material, review the input of others, comment on the input of others, keep a notepad for commentary, and cast votes.

5:45 pm
Reception with full bar

6:30 pm
Sit-down dinner
If his schedule permits, Vice Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski, President of the Naval War College, will make some additional welcoming remarks.

Thursday workshop sessions (14 January)

8 am
Continental breakfast served
A Salve Regina bus will depart from the Viking Hotel at approximately 7:45

8:30 am
Workshop Session I: The "Y2K Mania" Phase
INSTRUCTIONS: In contrast to the December workshop, when we sought to populate a series of alternative scenarios, in this workshop we'd like to work off a singular scenario and explore its unfolding dynamics over the course of an extended timeline (roughly mid-1999 through the first several weeks/months of 2000). The composite scenario that we'll use here can be considered to contain some elements from all four of the alternative scenarios elucidated above, but with special emphasis on the Next Best ("Humans 1, Computers 0") and Next Worst ("Houston, We Have a Problem") Scenarios.  In short, we consider this composite scenario to be significantly stressing for a notional country, albeit not catastrophic.

The six phases of this composite scenario are as follows:

• Mania phase that runs from probably sometime around late summer until early December of 1999
• Countdown phase that stretches from early December until  New Year's Eve 1999.
• Onset phase that encompasses the first several days of January 2000
• Unfolding phase that extends from early January to some point a few weeks beyond that
• Peak phase that occurs sometime in the first  or second quarter of 2000
• Exit Point phase that occurs sometime later in the first or second quarter of 2000.

This first 75-minute session will set the pattern for the remaining five Thursday sessions, and will be organized in the following fashion:

• Dr. Barnett will give a brief (five minutes) overview of the scenario phase to refresh your memory (a synopsis of each scenario phase appears in the table below)
• Participants will be asked to join a GroupSystems activity in which they receive an urgent email from a close policy adviser to the country's leader (you pick an actual country if you like or keep it notional, however, we'd like our regional experts to provide inputs reflective of their regional perspectives).  In this email, the policy adviser will ask you for two immediate responses regarding: 1) your immediate impressions of the situation at hand; and 2) your advice on what the country's leadership needs to look out for during this immediate point in the overall Y2K event. Once you respond to this email (we will cut off inputs at approximately 5 minutes), you will be free to read the responses of others for another five minutes.
• We will then open up the floor to an open discussion (40 minutes) of the issues involved in this scenario phase, moderated by Dr. Barnett
• At the close of the session, you will receive another urgent email from your friend, the close policy adviser to the country's leader.  In this email he will ask you two additional questions:  1) what is the best step the leader could take to deal with the current situation? and 2) what must the leader most avoid in the current situation?  Again, we will provide you with approximately five minutes to input your answer and an additional five minutes to review and/or comment on those of others.
• We will then break for approximately 10 minutes before starting the next session

9:45 am
Workshop Session II: The "Y2K Countdown" Phase (see slide and table above)

11:00 am
Workshop Session III: The "Y2K Onset" Phase (see slide and table above)

12:15 pm
Lunch served
Mind-stretching GroupSystems activity for those who care to join in

1 pm
Workshop Session IV: The "Y2K Unfolding" Phase (see slide and table above)

2:15 pm
Workshop Session V: The "Y2K Peak" Phase (see slide and table above)

3:30 pm
Workshop Session VI: The "Y2K Exit Point" Phase (see slide and table above)

4:45 pm
End of Day "Hot Wash" Segment: Survey Questions
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll ask you three questions via your laptops, providing you a total of 15 minutes to input your answers and review those of others:

• What was the most surprising thing you heard today?
• What was the most disturbing thing you heard today?
• What was the most important thing you heard today?

5 pm
Final Comments
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll go around the room and give everyone a minute to offer any last comment for the day

Approx. 5:30 pm
Adjournment
INSTRUCTIONS:  Find a nice Newport restaurant and have a nice meal with one or more of your fellow participants.

Friday workshop sessions (15 January)

8 am
Continental breakfast served
A Salve Regina bus will depart from the Viking Hotel at approximately 7:45

8:25 am
Workshop Session VII: Y2K Fallout
INSTRUCTIONS: We'll begin with a GroupSystems segment during which you'll receive yet another urgent email from your friend, the top policy adviser to the country's leader, asking for your impressions as to the likely domestic and international political fallout he or she will face in the coming months as a result of the just-concluded "Y2K time of troubles."  We will provide you with a total of 20 minutes to craft your response and to review and/or comment on those of others.  Following that segment, we'll open up the floor for discussion for 40 minutes.  A five-minute break will ensue prior to the start-up of the next session.

9:30 am
Workshop Session VIII: The Role of U.S. Leadership During the Y2K Event
INSTRUCTIONS: We'll begin with a GroupSystems segment during which we'll ask you to brainstorm together to create a list of possible actions/initiatives/missions the U.S. Government (both military and civilian) might pursue over the course of 1999 and as part of an international coalition that collectively seeks to manage consequences into the year 2000.  We will provide you with a total of 15 minutes to craft your response and to review and/or comment on those of others.  Following that segment, we'll open up the floor for discussion for 40 minutes.  A five-minute break will ensue prior to the start-up of the next session.

10:30 am
Workshop Session IX: "You Make the Call!"
INSTRUCTIONS: We'll begin with a GroupSystems segment during which we'll ask each of you to offer your best guess opinion as to how the Y2K Event will unfold in each of the following five world regions:

• Latin America
• Europe + Russia
• South, Central, and Southwest Asia
• East Asia
• Sub-Saharan Africa

You may offer a summary judgment for as many of the five regions as you care to.  You will have approximately 20 minutes to process your inputs and review those of others.  We will then open the floor to a series of short discussions covering each region in turn.  We will end the discussion at approximately noon.

12 noon
Lunch will be served and we'll open up the floor for final comments by everyone in turn.

1 pm
Adjournment

 Short bios of participants and key project team members

Workshop Participants

Robert Bosnak
A native of the Netherlands, Dr. Bosnak currently conducts a private practice as a psychoanalyst in Cambridge, Mass. He has authored a number of books and articles on dreams and apocalyptic visions, and has organized three international conferences on the theme of apocalyptic expectations and politics in Newport and Moscow.  As Director of Programs at The Newport Institute, Dr. Bosnak has convened several work-shops on the theme of xenophobia around the turn of the millenium.  He has a JD in Law and Criminology from the University of Leiden, Netherlands, as well as a diploma in Analytical Psychology from the C.G. Jung Institute of Zurich.

Mark T. Dudman
Mr. Dudman is the Director of Software Development at Comverse Network Systems of North Andover, Massachusetts.  His responsibilities include the management of two business units that develop telephony software for international clients.  Products from these units have been delivered to telephone networks in Australia, China, India, Japan, Mexico, and North America.  For the past two years, Mr. Dudman's primary focus has been product deliveries to the Japanese market.  His strong technical background began with a BS from the Rochester Institute of Technology, and has led to architecting software systems in the defense, computer integrated manufacturing, medical, and computer telephone industries.

Julia B. Gippenreiter
Dr. Gippenreiter is a Full Professor of Psychology at Moscow State University, where she has held a teaching position continuously since 1954.  She has held temporary and visiting positions at learning institutions around the world, and has produced numerous training workshops, seminars and television shows on a wide variety of psychological subjects.  Prof. Gippenreiter is well known for her scholarly writings on the subject of the effect of Stalinist repression on the social lives of Russian families.  Her most recent publication is a book entitled, How to Communicate with Children.  Dr. Gippenreiter is a member of the Russian National Association of Psychology.  She has a BA, MA and PhD in Psychology from Moscow State University.

Paula Gordon
Dr. Gordon is a Visiting Research Professor and Director of Special Projects in the Research Program in Social and Organizational Learning at George Washington University (GWU).  In addition, she serves as an independent consultant and contractor and as an Adjunct Professor of Management Science in GWU's School of Business and Public Management.  Prof. Gordon's PhD in Public Administration is from American University and her BA and MA degrees are from the University of California at Berkeley.  She has also completed course work in a second PhD in Educational Policy Planning and Administration at Berkeley.  She has served in a variety of roles in the U.S. Government, dating back to the early 1970s, and once ran for a U.S. Congressional seat in the San Francisco Bay area.

Gabriel Gutierrez
Mr. Gutierrez, a native of Chile, is currently consulting with the UN Economic Commission for Latin America.  For this institution he has built economic development scenarios since 1991.  He has also worked extensively on economic prospect analysis for OLADE, the Latin American Energy Organization, since 1988, building a global economic model.  In 1997-98, he also performed research for the UN Development Program on the effects of economic globalization at the local level.  Mr. Gutierrez has worked in the past for IDEA, Inc. on US Agency for International Development projects in Latin America and Africa, and also enjoyed a 13-year stint with IBM.  He has a Lic. in Economics and a Commercial Engineering degree from Catholic University, Chile.

George Honadle
Dr. Honadle is a consultant specializing in institutional issues related to sustainable economic development.  He has worked in 27 countries with such organizations as the United Nations, the World Bank, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the African and Asian Development Banks, the World Wildlife Fund, the U.S. Congress' Office of Technology Assessment, and the Peace Corps.  Dr. Honadle has taught at four universities in the U.S. and has lectured at 30 institutes and universities in eight countries.  He was appointed by the Governor of Minnesota to the Minnesota Roundtable on Sustainable Development.  Dr. Honadle's third book, tentatively titled Linking People, Policy and Nature: The Context Hypothesis, will be published later this year.

Michael B. Harrington (speaker)
Dr. Harrington currently serves as Principal Information Technology Economist at the Economic and Decision Analysis Center of The MITRE Corporation's Washington C3 Center.  Dr. Harrington has played a principal technical and/or managerial role in research projects conducted for a variety of federal agencies.  At this time, Dr. Harrington leads a project that involves examining the efforts in key countries and infrastructural sectors to carry out Y2K remediation programs, assessing the probable impact on US interests of possible failures in these efforts.  He has an MS (Econometrics) and PhD. (Systems Analysis) in Public Management from the University of California at Irvine.

Paul B. Kourtz
Mr. Kourtz is currently a Senior Analyst specializing in telecommunications technologies and the Year 2000 Problem for the U.S. Office of Transnational Issues.  His career in technical analysis spans more than three decades, during which time Mr. Kourtz has been involved in the design and deployment of technical collection systems, and the analysis of naval and space weapons systems, electronic warfare systems, dual-use technologies, and Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I).  He has also served as a representative to the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization.

Richard A. Landes
Prof. Landes holds a position in the Department of History at Boston University, and has served as Director of the Center for Millennial Studies since he founded it in 1996.  He has written widely on the subject of medieval history, millennial and apocalyptic movements, and the coming millennial event.  At the Center for Millennial Studies, he has organized and led a number of conferences on the Year 2000, including one of the first on Y2K.  Dr. Landes has also made a number of national media appearances related to these subjects.  He has a BA in Social Studies from Harvard University, a diploma from the Ecole Normale Superieure, and an MA and PhD in History from Princeton University.

Jennifer A. Lee
Ms. Lee grew up in a military family and spend much of her youth stationed overseas, as well as in the U.S.  After graduating from Rhodes College with a BA in Spanish and Economics, she moved to the Washington DC area where she worked for Mack McLarty, former Counselor to the President of the United States and Special Envoy for Latin America.  Ms. Lee received her MS in Foreign Service from Georgetown University.  She recently joined the U.S. State Department and has been assigned to the Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs on Latin America, focusing her attention on Columbia.

Douglas MacIntyre
Mr. MacIntyre is an international oil market analyst with the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent data and analytical section of the U.S. Department of Energy.  He is responsible for EIA's short-term oil market forecast, which currently goes through the year 2000.  Mr. MacIntyre has been quoted on the world oil market in various newspapers, including the Wall Street Journal.  He has co-authored an article on OPEC oil revenues published in the September 21 edition of the Oil and Gas Journal.  Mr. MacIntyre has a BS in Management Science from the University of Maryland at College Park and an MS in National Resource Strategy from the Industrial College of the Armed Forces at the National Defense University.

Sipho Veli Mahlangu
Mr. Mahlangu currently serves as Risk Analyst in the National Year 2000 Decision Support Center of the Republic of South Africa, where, as Project Leader in the Risk Analysis Department, he recently completed two studies on the impact of Y2K on the delivery of electricity and water in South Africa.  Past positions include Lecturer at the East Rand College of Education and Technikon Free State, and Analyst Programmer at Transnet (Datavaia) in Johannesburg.  He has a BS from the University of Fort Hare, as well as a BS and MS in Computational and Applied Mathematics from the University of the Witwatersrand.  Mr. Mahlangu is currently a PhD candidate in Risk Analysis, specializing in chaos theory, at the University of the Witwatersrand.

Angus McCrone
Mr. McCrone is presently self-employed as an economic writer and consultant.  His four main clients are the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), the London Evening Standard, the Sunday Business, and the CGU, one of the United Kingdom's leading institutional investment houses.  Mr. McCrone's work for the CEBR has included a study of "millennium effects" on the British economy, published this month.  In the past he has either worked and/or written for the Sunday Telegraph, The Scotsman, Computing, and Pieda Consultants of Edinburgh.  Mr. McCrone has an MA in Modern History and Economics from St. Andrews University, and an MS in Economic History from the London School of Economics.

John H. Noer
Dr. Noer currently serves as Project Director in the Information Operations and Warfare Team of the Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria Virginia. His current research includes: a review of world shipping movements through key choke points; an analysis of the force structure needs of the U.S. Coast Guard; a study of strategic warfare in Asia in the 21st century; and various field exercises and system tests at sea.  Dr. Noer is the author of Chokepoints: Maritime Economic Concerns in Southeast Asia, which combined original research on merchant shipping with an analysis of the impact of sea lane disruption on the world economy. He received his Ph.D. from the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago, where he also attended college and received an MBA.

J. Kathy Parker
Dr. Parker specializes in social ecology, strategic planning, and information technology culture in developing country settings.  A long-time consultant to the U.S. Agency for International Development, she has more than two decades of field experience in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as well as significant recent experience in Eastern Europe and Russia.  Dr. Parker has published widely on development issues, and has held academic postings at a number of universities.  She has a BA in Sociology and History from Trinity University, an MS in Park Administration from Texas Tech University, and an MA and PhD in Forestry and Environmental Studies from Yale University.

Daniel Pipes
Dr. Pipes is Editor of the Middle East Quarterly and Senior Lecturer at the University of Pennsylvania.  He has also taught at the University of Chicago, Harvard University, and the U.S. Naval War College.  Dr. Pipes previously served in the U.S. Departments of State and Defense, as well as Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.  He has appeared frequently on U.S. television, and has testified before several U.S. Senate and House committees.  Dr. Pipes has written ten books, most of which focus on the Middle East.  His last volume, Conspiracy: How the Paranoid Style Flourishes, and Where It Comes From (1997) establishes the importance of conspiracy theories in modern European and American politics.  He has a BA and PhD in History from Harvard University.

Tony Pryor
Office of Sustainable Development, Africa Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development.  No bio available at this time.

Jeffrey W. Schneider
Mr. Schneider was born into an Air Force family and spent most of his youth traveling to different parts of the country.  Upon graduation from Penn State in 1973 with a degree in Foreign Relations, he spent four years in the Navy as a Communications Officer and Navigator in destroyers and amphibious ships.  After active duty, Mr. Schneider entered Vanderbilt University, where he received an MA in Russian History.   He joined the State Department in 1983, working in Soviet nuclear and energy issues until 1995, when he transferred to the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs to concentrate on South Asia and India.  Mr. Schneider received a BA in Economics from the University of Maryland and will receive an additional MA in Economics from Virginia Tech this May.

Paul S. Triolo
Mr. Triolo brings both technical and humanities experience to analysis of the Y2K problem.  He graduated from Penn State in 1982 with a degree in Electrical Engineering.  After working in industry, he returned to school and received an MA in International Relations from Catholic University. Mr. Triolo, who speaks and reads Chinese, worked in China as an English teacher before and during the Tiananmen events of 1989.  Since joining the U.S. State Department in 1991, he has focused on Asia and China.  During his most recent overseas tour, he served in the U.S. Embassy in Beijing from 1995-97 in the Economics Section.  Since his return to Washington, he has continued to follow developments in China's IT sector in the Department's Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs.

Mitzi Wertheim
Ms. Wertheim is a seasoned organizational change manager for large-scale government and industry organizations, as well as not-for-profit organizations.  She specializes in developing effective organizational responses to challenges and opportunities presented by rapid technologcial, market, and cultural developments.  Ms. Wertheim learned and exercised these skills in a series of senior executive assignments in private industry (e.g., IBM and SRA International), and in the Department of Defense (Department of Navy, Office of the Secretary of Defense).  Before that, she held responsible positions with the Cafritz Foundation and the Peace Corps in Washington DC.  She is now with The CNA Corporation, a Defense Department think tank located in Alexandria Virginia.
 
 
 

Year 2000 Internat'l Security Dimension Project Members

Thomas P.M. Barnett
Dr. Barnett is Professor and Senior Strategic Researcher at the Decision Support Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies.  He currently directs the Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project.  Prior to joining the College, he served as Project Director for The CNA Corporation of Alexandria, Virginia, where he managed the U.S. Agency for International Development account.  His most recent work, "The Seven Deadly Sins of Network-Centric Warfare," appeared in the January 1999 issue of the U.S. Naval Institute's Proceedings.  He has a BA in Russian Literature and U.S. Foreign Policy from the University of Wisconsin, and an MA in Eurasian Studies and a PhD in Government from Harvard University.

Henry D. Kamradt
Mr. Kamradt serves as Professor and Senior Strategic Researcher at the Decision Support Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies.  He is currently directing and participating in a number of projects concerning the future of network-centric warfare, to include the subject areas of sensor architecture and technological surprises.  Prof. Kamradt's areas of expertise include anti-submarine and surface warfare, as well as naval intelligence.  Prior to joining the College, he worked as a Senior Analyst for Sonalysts, Inc., and later founded and directed his own consulting firm.  Prof. Kamradt also served in the U.S. Navy from 1977 through 1984.  He has a BA from Duke University.

Lawrence E. Modisett
Dr. Modisett is Director of the Decision Support Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies.  In this capacity he oversees and participates in a wide variety of national security studies.  Dr. Modisett's fields of expertise include international affairs, national security issues, and Russia and Eastern Europe.  His prior government service includes a 19-year career as Analyst and Manager at the Central Intelligence Agency, and a three-year stint in the U.S. Information Agency as a member of the Foreign Service.  He has a BA in English from Ohio Wesleyan University, and an MS in Foreign Service and a PhD in History from Georgetown University.

Breakdown of participants by key subject area

 Web sites you may want to check out before coming

•  U.S. Naval War College

• Center for Millennial Studies

• Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network

• Washington DC Year 2000 Group

• World Bank's Year 2000 links page

• The Mitre Corporation's Y2K page

• Washington State's Y2K links page

• The New York Times's Millennium Bug index page

• David Isenberg's web site

• The Cassandra Project

• "Risks to the Public in Computers and Related Systems" Archive Site