READ-AHEAD PACKAGE FOR
U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
Y2K CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT WORKSHOP (4 MARCH 99)
AT CNAC BOARDROOM, ALEXANDRIA VA

Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project
Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, Director
401.841.4053/barnettt@nwc.navy.mil

Contents

• Description of  workshop schedule and instructions for preparation

• Read-ahead materials

• List of participants and key project team members (with short bios collected to date)

• Web sites you may want to check out before coming

• Administrative details and directions to CNA

I. Description of workshop schedule and instructions
 
 

Thursday, 4 March 1999, CNAC Boardroom, 2nd Floor, 4401 Ford Avenue, Alexandria VA, 0800 to 1730

7:30 am
Check-in and continental breakfast at the CNAC Boardroom, The CNA Corporation; we will be collecting meal fee for both breakfast and buffet lunch ($12)

7:55 am
Welcoming remarks by VADM Arthur Cebrowski, President, U.S. Naval War College

8:00 am
Presentation by Dr. Michael Harrington, Director of The MITRE Corporation's "Y2KP International" project.

8:15 am
Presentation by Dr. Richard Landes, Director of Boston University's Center for Millennial Studies.

8:30 am
Presentation by Mr. John Osterholz, Director, Information Integration and Interoperability, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control, Communication and Intelligence (OASD C3I).

9:00 am
Project overview presentation by Dr. Thomas Barnett, Director, Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project, U.S. Naval War College (see "M-Curve" and "Scenario Dynamics" slides below for reference).
 
 

10:00 am
Break

10:15 am
Introduction to GroupSystems by Prof. Theo Gemelas (i.e., familiarizing everyone with their individual laptops and how they connect to the main server that runs the facilitation software).
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll run you through a short drill to make sure you know how to input material, review the input of others, comment on the input of others, keep a notepad for commentary, and cast votes.
 
 

10:30 am
Scenario phase orientation brief by Dr. Barnett (see Scenario Dynamics Grid above for reference)

10:45 am
GroupSystems session--Group feedback on "Policy Do's and Don'ts" for Mania and Countdown Phases (see read-ahead material below for preview of "Do's and Don'ts" by Scenario Phase)
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll ask you to offer commentary via your individual laptop regarding our list of policy "do's and don'ts" for these two phases.  These ideas were culled from the January scenario-dynamics workshop using regional experts.

11:00 am
Open discussion section on Mania and Countdown Phases--Key issues for Regional CINCs in Consequence Management Strategies

11:45 am
GroupSystems session--group feedback on draft list of mission-related issue-areas for Regional CINCS (to be presented at beginning of discussion session)
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll ask you to offer commentary via your individual laptop regarding our draft list of planning focal points for Regional CINCs as they look ahead to consequence management of the Y2K event and related experiences.  In effect, we'll be asking you to offer unsolicited advice to the CINC from whatever area of expertise you can offer.

12:00 noon
Buffet Lunch (covered by meal fee)
 
 

12:30 pm
Scenario phase orientation brief by Dr. Barnett

12:45 pm
GroupSystems session--Group feedback on "Policy Do's and Don'ts" for Onset and Unfolding Phases

1:00 pm
Open discussion section on Onset and Unfolding Phases--Key issues for Regional CINCs in Consequence Management Strategies

1:45 pm
GroupSystems session--group feedback on draft list of mission-related issue-areas for Regional CINCS

2:00 pm
Break
 
 

2:15 pm
Scenario phase orientation brief by Dr. Barnett

2:30 pm
GroupSystems session--Group feedback on "Policy Do's and Don'ts" for Peak and Exit Phases

2:45 pm
Open discussion section on Peak and Exit Phases--Key issues for Regional CINCs in Consequence Management Strategies

3:30 pm
GroupSystems session--group feedback on draft list of mission-related issue-areas for Regional CINCS

3:45 pm
Break
 
 

4:00 pm
GroupSystems session--Group Brainstorming on potential security wildcards and key "at-risk" countries by region

4:15 pm
Open discussion section on potential security wildcards and key "at-risk" countries by region

5:00 pm
Final comments by workshop participants

5:30 pm
Adjournment NLT

II. Read-Ahead Materials: Policy "Do’s and Don’ts" from GroupSystems inputs received at January Scenario-Dynamics Workshop

EXPLANATORY NOTE:  These ideas were culled from approximately two dozen regional experts who were asked to imagine themselves responding to an email from their "old friend," a close political adviser to the President of Country X (their choice), in which this friend asks them what kind of advice he or she could offer the leader regarding this phase of the Y2K experience.
 
 

• Try to show people different scenarios and show that not only the US is going to suffer from this. Enhance the preparedness of the population.
• Government must ensure basic commodities like water, electricity, pensions, etc. will be delivered.
• Heads of State in the Persian Gulf need to make sure all aspects of exporting oil, from the pumping stations to the electronic payments for the oil, are functioning. State oil companies (ARAMCO, INOC, ADNOC, etc.) must know (and show they know) how important this is.
• Prevail on broadcasters and newspapers not to sensationalize this issue, because that could easily spark panic hoarding and pressure on the banking system. "Don't fear fear itself"; don't just repress panic, but try to ID and address legitimate causes for concern. Work to educate the press. They will have the biggest immediate impact on how the event will be perceived. Television and radio should be prepared to understand what is likely to happen during the event, and what is normal from a statistical perspective.
• Need to get technical talent into Russia to help solve embedded chip problem in nuclear plants.
• Look for entities that might use the Y2K event as cover for C4IW offensive ops.
• Advanced industrial countries should develop a global strategy and coalition to address all of the different facets of Y2K, including major infrastructure reactions, prevention of technological disasters (including catastrophic malfunctioning of systems, chemical plants, nuclear power plants, pipelines, hazardous material sites, etc.).
• Pull together a team of leaders from public and private sector to discuss issues and to develop pro-active plans to address possible consequences. Stress strengths and opportunities, but be honest about weaknesses and threats.
• Look at infrastructure to see what financial problems can occur with the flow of hard currency. Central banks could prepare inventories of notes and currency, and have contingency plans, to instill confidence that we would not lack money at least in time of crisis.
• It is essential that nations follow the pragmatic, proactive, crisis oriented approach like the one that Canada has to address the likely impacts of Y2K. Examine lessons learned as a result of natural disasters. Preparing as if for a natural disaster or major storm would create a sense of security that everything had been done that could be done to withstand a mid range scenario characterized by power outages and brownout lasting one to two weeks.
• Keep the public informed on the progress that is being made.
• Begin humanitarian response training for military and security forces in the event that there are disruptions of basic services.
• Avoid unnecessary encounters between militaries, particularly those with "antiquated hi-tech" equipment.
• Avoid making specific ethnic or national groups look responsible for the Y2K problem. Use a metaphor system of natural disasters instead of blame. Avoid "persecutory" language at each instance. Avoid isolating groups in the context of Y2K.
• Avoid personal actions by government ministers that might add to public panic--e.g., ministers hoarding food, buying large amounts of gold, buying generators.
• Don't create surprise economic controls.
• Be totally honest with the people concerning the government's understanding of the challenges of Y2K and what the government is doing to address them. Include efforts to facilitating emergency preparedness and contingency planning and implementation in all infrastructure sectors.
• To ensure that the potential for Y2K triggered Bhopal-type and Chernobyl-type disasters are kept to the barest minimum, mobilize tiger teams and send them to locations where problems seem likely.

• The churches are an excellent source for outreach to the poor and citizens in rural areas. Churches would make excellent decentralized distribution nodes. Develop a plan to incorporate them.
• Those nations at the forefront of Y2K mobilization, preparedness, and mobilization efforts (Canada, Sweden, Australia) should share their understanding of the problem and of corrective initiatives that can be taken. Forums and vehicles for such exchanges need to be provided at the global level. These efforts would need to be geared to the stage of economic development and state of Y2K readiness of the country.
• Unmask any and all pranks and tricks as just that, rather than allowing the public to believe that the system is failing.
• Coordinate with tanker insurers (such as Lloyd's) to make sure tanker availability will not be in short supply due to high insurance premiums.
• Watch for groups who might take advantage of the situation by causing even greater disruptions than necessary in order to warrant a greater public outcry.
• Develop covert intelligence operations to enhance or create otherwise nonexistent Y2K problems abroad to help our nation's competitive position.
• Prepare and mobilize military and police for non-violent crowd control.
• Develop and publish a contingency energy power rationing schedule, so business and public can prepare.
• Have the fuel priority system ready.
• Make sure your country has adequate supplies of food and fuel if imports are cut off.
• Speak directly to all ethnic groups to facilitate cooperation and let them know they are not left out.
• Continue to provide information to public. Indicate the nature of contingency plans that have been developed. Discuss cooperation and collaboration at local, regional and national levels.
• Ensure that the basic services (water, electricity, etc.) are being delivered. Ensure that the public has at least minimum supplies (stockpiles) of food, water, and medical supplies, and that all have access to portable radios (to the extent possible, solar operated or hand cranked variety).
• Concentrate on confidence building measures especially in the financial and national security sectors.
• Have plans in readiness for emergency response, management, and recovery from any major radiological, chemical, or hazardous material disaster.
• Take open visible measures to provide security, such as patrols on cities, on the streets . . . perhaps provide food, and regular announcements on media.
• Do not overreact with force but avoid appearing that you--the government--have lost control of the situation.
• Avoid dampening the spirit of celebration. Ensure that celebration events are as protected as possible from terrorist attacks.
• Make sure we government types don't compound the problem , or create an OTHERWISE NON-EXISTENT PROBLEM, by ill considered inappropriate moves.
• Don't keep secrets.
• Watch out for religious groups who are using this event as a way to attack modernity and want us to fail--these include fundamentalists from all sources.
• Watch for getting caught by sneak attacks by adversaries who think every one abroad will be distracted by Y2K chaos.
• Be absolutely honest in communications so that the trust that will be needed will be there if and when a major problem occurs

• Determine if the Navy should be at sea or in port for the Dec 30 1999 early Jan 2000 time period. Do we want to be out of sight, or ready to act, hunkered down in homeports, or out providing "reassurance" with port calls?
• The Russian nuke plants may go into melt down because they won't have power to cool off the plants that are having embedded chip problems. We should expect a number of meltdowns.
• Discourage people from congregating in dangerously large numbers at traditional new year venues--e.g. Trafalgar Square in London or Princes Street in Edinburgh. Those venues struggle to cope on a normal New Year's eve, and could see horrendous overcrowding with injuries this time.
• Beware of covert IT warfare ops by the enemy under the cover of the Y2K problem.
• Don't go on vacation now. Don't call in sick. Don't stop communicating.
• Don't let isolated problems be blown into mass problems, unless they really are. Set up a rumor response team, which tries to address rumors in country, or outside the country within a few hours. Put problems in perspective as much as possible.
• Make sure people are clothed, fed, and are sheltered. Accomplishing these basic goals will enable you to focus on more complex problems.
• Have contingency teams ready to operate as 2000 begins . . . managers, computer programmers, lawyers, and insurance specialists.
• Shut down any system, chemical manufacturing plant, nuclear power plant, etc. which is not Y2K compliant and which could have major impacts on life, health, safety, and the sustainability of the environment.
• Disseminate crisis relocation plans in the event there is a need to evacuate a given locale. Urge people to keep tuned to their radios as a means of getting a clear understanding of what is actually happening and what actions are needed.
• Don't let concentrations of distressed or impoverished people collect around a few relief distribution points. These people will be at risk. Distribute aid widely, bring it to the people, and don't let folks migrate in search of food or whatever.
• Be responsive but not over reactive. Begin the triage, if necessary. Sit tight and analyze the incoming data. It will take a few days to know what to do. At this moment all reactions are going to be based on gut responses that may be wrong. Wait.
• Don't support any rumors that are not accurately substantiated. Err more on the side of underreporting than of overreporting.
• Let sectors and organizations work our their own problems.
• Stay in close contact with as many leaders as you can. Have--as much as possible--a free exchange of data.
• Not only encourage calm, but appear in public, find out what people are thinking, and promise that, as soon as things settle even a little, rules will be in place, some new, some old, but all humane. People who try to settle scores need to understand that they will be held accountable. Punish anyone egregiously spreading panic or doom mongering, particularly if it's part of a scam or an attempt to garner political clout.
• If there have been catastrophic failures of some nuclear power plants there may be strong pressure to shut other nuclear plants down. This could create additional demands on the remaining power grid.
• Don't confuse non-Y2K problems with Y2K problems. Do not let localized problems be depicted as national or grand scale problems--educate reporters and others about the issue.
• Don’t get cocky…it ain’t over till the fat lady sings. Some aspects of the problem may not become apparent until later in January.
• Avoid both the heavy hand and the appearance of it.
• Ensure that those with "moral authority" do not lose it because of being ill-informed or being used for purposes that may serve the short-term political needs of the current government.
• Avoid using the military for any but the most dire emergencies, where saving citizen's lives is necessary. We may have to allow some areas that are hit with riots to be destroyed. We can promise the victims that rebuilding them will be our top priority afterwards. Avoid clashes as much as possible.
• Continue to be alert to computer hackers and possible Y2K viruses that could add to pressure on already stressed systems.

• Governments must decide which companies that are severely suffering because of Y2K must be saved--either by coordinating private sector efforts, or by nationalizing.
• All banks and significant companies must be saved. Not to do so could cause or exacerbate an economic downturn in early 2000.
• Be prepared to put inflation targets, etc., to one side. Some inflation may be necessary to ration goods in short supply. Any attempt to tighten monetary policy at an early stage would just hit economic activity.
• If the actual disruptions of Y2K are much less than actually feared, don't give in to the temptation to declare victory. Continue to act quickly and respond to every substantiated report.
• Be sure that you are doing your best to supply people with food, medical service and education. Especially in significant places like Russia.
• Assure the public that the national grain reserves are adequate to get through the crisis.
• Announce international SWAT team that will be available to go into stricken countries and sort the computers out. However, the expertise required to "fix" problems will be needed in a lot of different places. You should advise the government leaders that they may need to prioritize what gets "fixed."
• Work with the media to help shape the public perception. This is not to say "alter the news," however localized government should be prepared to help verify or squash Y2K related impacts.
• To the extent possible there needs to be outreach on the part of the developed nations to the underdeveloped world to help them to the extent needed.
• The major activities of the leaders need to be focus on holding the social fabric together.
• Communicate, communicate, and communicate. Keep people informed. Keep lines of communication with local leaders open.
• Keep all the public enterprises/utilities functioning. At all costs, keep the railways functioning.
• Be sure to try and provide alternative fuel sources and other energy (including food) to keep people from overexploiting local natural resources.
• Publicize the local appropriate technology centers and networks to help people cope with disruption of imported energy sources.
• Call for solutions from any individual, group, or sector. Encourage local responses. Position the government to empower the citizenry and play the role of coordinator, offering assistance wherever possible. Set in place a committee to receive and support various projects and responses.
• Grant a tax amnesty to communities that successfully "self-organize" making it possible for the government to put its resources to work elsewhere. Drop unnecessary restrictions and focus only on the most serious breaches of public order.
• Avoid dishonesty about the true extent of the consequences of the problem.
• Microenterprises could be used to begin to tide people over, or--if need be--to begin to slowly rebuild the economy if there are large numbers of unemployed. Individuals could be given very low interest loans or grants to enable them to begin local entrepreneurial activity.
• Watch out for winners and losers. Criminals can be winners. For example, greater flow of printed currency is a prime opportunity for money laundering. Excellent opportunity for counterfeiting.
• Don't actually do anything that hasn’t been pre-planned without careful thought!
• The hidden danger that we need to avoid is that many will believe it is over on 1 January (a discrete event). We need to let people know that it is likely that isolated events will continue to occur for some time.
• Avoid complacency. Remain vigilant and monitor situations closely in order to keep the situation from expanding any further.
• Don't panic. You have lots of advisors who are suggesting quick fixes. They may backfire in the long run.
• Avoid advice that suggests a nationalistic and belligerent stance. Scrupulously avoid attacks on enemies. You need to be seen as everyone's leader.
• Don't lift currency control too soon.
• Don't confuse millennial angst with Y2K problems unless they are connected. Y2K issues may increase angst, but such angst is not ALL related to Y2K, and won't go away as IT problems are addressed.
• In countries with developed black-markets it may be wise to turn a blind-eye to the old black-market remittance system in some cases. They might provide a useful life support network for a time.

• Leaders must become consummate educators. They must use their positions as bully pulpits to ensure that they keep the efforts of the people upbeat and focused on a vision of pulling through this difficult time.
• Don’t succumb to, or allow, scapegoating
• Pay attention to the possibility of organized crime using Y2K remediation firms as fronts.
• Resist the temptation to save organizations (corporations or government) that are losing out. Let this thing play out and deal with the emerging winners. However, urge that the process of wealth transfer go on in a humane fashion. It is to everyone's advantage to keep as many businesses alive as possible.
• Only sensible response to economic problems is for governments to forget about fiscal targets temporarily, and to increase public spending and reduce taxes, the boost being paid if necessary by printing money.
• Group the country's industry experts (manufacturing, health care, and communications) into response committees to close out the remaining issues. The remaining problems are difficult to fix (the easy ones are already done).
• The U.S. and its allies are among the most IT dependant, if we don’t weather Y2K well we should expect others to look for ways to exploit our vulnerabilities to their advantage.
• Task forces of merchant, religious and local authority members should be assembled to articulate local problems and to assist with a triage effort in solving those problems.
• Watch for backlash against the U.S. due to perceptions that the U.S. is the cause of this computer driven Y2K mess.
• Look for successes and promote these. Where failures have occurred, acknowledge what is being done to correct them.
• Avoid letting "trash" sneak in. Guard the borders!
• Avoid blaming Y2K for other problems.
• Guard against your enemies taking advantage of the current chaotic situation to attack you in one form or another.
• Russia: Some groups will try to make chaos again. Watch this trend!
• Avoid staying in crisis mode after the emergency is over.
• Work with the UN, OAU, OAS and WTO (and others) to avoid protectionism and other country-specific actions which may erode global economic linkages potentially necessary for any exit strategy.
• Avoid ignoring advice from people because of who they are or where they come from. Sift any advice according to its merits. We need all we can get.
• While fixing problems, try not to ignore how overall systems can be improved once hurdles met--i.e., Y2K problems won't be with us for decades, and in the process of dealing with the crisis we've been forced to look at all sorts of arcane, old or forgotten systems. Can we use that knowledge constructively?

• Don't leave "emergency restrictions" in place after the emergency is over.
• Prepare a series of projects that you can launch at the key moment as an indicator of a return to normalcy and a launching of a new beginning.
• For most developing countries, the focus should be on fixing the cascading results of Y2K, not necessarily computer glitches themselves. This requires the bringing together of talent across sectors. Keeping such a team alive to address future issues related to global changes should be encouraged.
• The judiciary is going to need a process to expedite Y2K cases, discarding those that are opportunistic.
• The crisis is/was social-political. Provide leadership to move on with our lives.
• Don't overestimate the negative sides of IT.
• Important to do a good "lessons learned" exercise on Y2K. Next time, we may not have the luxury of so much advance notice.
• Avoid letting Y2K generate a life of its own. This will be difficult as many people were employed on this issue and finding alternatives for them may not be easy.
• The single greatest danger to watch out for is that of disappointed roosters--religious and secular people who really thought it was TEOTWAWKI and hoped to accomplish all kinds of things as a result--feeling frustrated and angry about the lack of "renewal and change" that occurred as a result of the crisis. Some of these people, now infected with grandiose dreams of world transformation may find the normalization, which most people welcome, as a tragedy, and the people who welcome this subsiding of crisis as fools whose opinions, rights, and even person, are not worth respecting.
• Realize that much of what was attributed to an IT problem called Y2K caused symptoms that allowed inherent causes of fragility and instability to take their toll. Dealing with symptoms versus dealing with causes is a great challenge--one that we often fail to understand and therefore often fail to deal with effectively.
• Get SADCC-member countries to develop a new generation of projects that move the region together on energy planning, conversion to energy based on renewable resources, and create a regional authority to promote this approach.
• Take existing crisis teams and evolve them into a more permanent multi-sector "change response planning team," (and try to get the UN to do the same). Make sure they're not dominated by IT specialists.
• Watch out for the lawsuits and profiteering. If the population feels that it has been dispossessed by this crisis, there are violent results that can come later. At this point, the panel of legal and judicial experts whom you appointed (according to the advice I should have given you in 1999) should issue guidelines for dealing with spreading the cost of this mistake equitably.

• Computer viruses that go off 1 Jan 2000.
• Hacking attacks on Cisco routers designed to crash the Internet.
• With West distracted by its partying and Y2k troubles, opportunity for countries with grievances or border disputes against another to settle issue by force.
• Hackers break into banks, re-routing transactions.
• Air traffic control systems are down, so drug runners increase routes and shipments.
• Hack attacks by political hackivists on target corporations.
• A new virus (as in disease) might be introduced. Poisoning the drinking water supply.
• Attacks on defense nets.
• White collar criminal activities on a massive scale.
• Return of the losers who remain technologically empowered. Look for neo-nazi, militia themes and connections, as well as apocalyptic rhetoric.
• Looting in blackout areas of town.
• "Neo"-nazis will be everywhere. The question is, how can they be neutralized? These bullyboys are the advanced edge of the Mafioso scapegoaters; millennial fascism is a particularly attractive discourse for this crowd.
• Iraq takes advantage of the world's distraction over Y2K to either 1) invade Kuwait (again), 2) attack Israel, or 3) invade Iran.
• IW ops by one nation/group versus an enemy, e.g. Muslim hackers attack kingdom of Saudi Arabia IT net.
• The information infrastructure of many countries will be the target of hacking groups that will seek to take advantage of IT resources that will be diverted to Y2K.
• If your purpose is to show the evils of technology, or western culture, essentially ANYTHING which speeds up or augments Y2K failures would work (more viruses, hack attacks, directed theft of communications systems etc.) If you have non-Y2K or apocalyptic purposes in mind (Bosnia, etc.) then your action probably would take advantage of the confusion brought on by Y2K.
• Attacks on the US power grids.
• Chance for rebel groups to step up attacks on government as it deals with Y2K, millennial issues and world attention is distracted.
• The arrest of dissidents with a tenuous background in IT.
• Database corruption--hackers will look to corrupt databases well before the rollover, with the knowledge that backups will be made just prior to the rollover, and if there are rollover issues then the corrupted database will be restored.
• Viruses--many hackers have an axe to grind, and they will use Y2K to mask the nature of their virus so that IT will not know if it is a real Y2K issue or a virus (look for many fake viruses as well during mania phase)
• Unapproved system accesses--many hackers (and probably non-hackers alike) will be looking to see just how vulnerable computer systems have become.
• Companies using the excuse of Y2K to sell sub-standard and potentially faulty goods.
• Leaders use disruptions in information flows to perform psychological operations on their own populations, stirring up nationalist sentiment, reporting crimes against humanity by a particular group, sowing seeds for future conflict.

• Increased cooperation among groups that might not have otherwise interacted, due to identification of common problem and shared sense of relative impact.
• Security forces deployed around major nuclear, defense and other critical plants.
• Warn potential malefactors that we are on their case.
• Well prepared communities to respond.
• Make people understand that celebration/preparation is synonymous. That celebration and vigilance have to coincide.
• Make it clear that the military is aware that people will take advantage of the distraction and therefore will remain on alert during this period. Also keep up surveillance activities and perhaps increase these activities.
• Enhanced vigilance is required by IT security types to ensure that hackers are not able to insert Trojans and other tools prior to Jan 1, 2000.
• Shut down airports, key financial and government centers for the first week to deny terrorists opportunity to attack.
• Create a Y2K Watch and staff the operations center through the magic weekend a la Sears and other major US firms.
• Share Y2K data and military strategic warning data.
• Train the neighborhood watches in various locals for specific Y2K induced violence.
• US Government should emphasize human rights remain a priority US concern in last quarter of 1999 as a warning to regimes that might be tempted to step up ethnic cleansing or other score settling activities.
• Transparency in communications during onset phase.
• Watch for new viruses in the period before January 1.
• Political leaders need to be ready to slap down dubious commercial practices by issuing critical publicity.
• All nets put up fire walls or power down Christmas or December 30.
• Have preplanned rationing schemes, community based, in place on time.
• Warn known hackers not to act.
• To defend against database corruption . . . this is tough. The best idea that I have is to do daily backups and compare these everyday with the day before (tremendous effort) for a period of about 6 months before the event. On viruses, it's McAfee baby! And hire more engineers now. Then there's also the option of disconnecting systems from the firewall for a period around the rollover. While this will have serious financial impact it could be less costly in the end.
• Trade intelligence on hackers and malevolent actors among police, intelligence and defense groups.

• Some of fragile new democracies will destabilize if prolonged impacts occur especially in urban areas.
• Since electronic remittances are increasingly important this could be a weak link in the region, particularly in the Caribbean and Central America .
• The banking system will be cut off from Y2K-compliant banks in other parts of the world, throwing the economies of the nations into tailspins. Telecommunications systems will be impaired in major ways. Oil refineries with embedded systems problems will either be shut down, repaired, or cause major problems.
• Y2K will unfold on several different levels in Latin America. Y2k will unfold during the summer months in the Southern Hemisphere. Extreme poverty is a problem for many countries in the region. Those populations who have a subsistence living will see almost no impact from this phenomenon. Even transportation of fuel supplies will matter less due to the time of year. The problem with relief efforts for basic needs is that these countries have had a hard year. They've been hit by El Nino, low world commodity prices, capital flight due to investor fear of emerging market risk. Y2K planning is not top on governments' agendas. While the poorest in the region may weather Y2K fairly well, economies will suffer. Investment in the region is already lower, some countries are near recession. If F2Q occurs and banks are found non-compliant, the region will find itself in depression. There will be calls for political change, a return to populism, and possible military interventions in some countries.
• Latin governments will turn to the US for funds for remediation and contingency planning.
• While the poor may not be seen as being affected directly, there may be significant indirect effects--guerrilla movements may arise in rural areas that affect calm or return former "war torn" areas into disruption; potential movements of urban family members back to the farm may put strain on already limited resources; loss of remittances may limit ability to undertake even limited improvements in quality of life, etc.
• The Brazilian devaluation this week will shake investor confidence in the region even further. Latin American economies will decline and Y2K will be at the bottom of the economic agenda. Other countries will cut off the region, fearing that banks and other institutions are not Y2K compliant. The region will struggle to recover.
• Oil and natural gas pipelines run by computers will be disrupted due to Y2K. Exports to the US will diminish. Ports will be effected. Shipping of fruits and vegetables will be delayed.
• FARC and ELN in Colombia will take advantage of government distraction to launch major attacks on bases and small cities.
• An excuse for a weeklong fiesta!
• Countries print more money to head off a liquidity crunch. Shortages occur as trade routes are effected by Y2K. Extra currency chasing fewer goods leads to high inflation and fears of a return to hyperinflation.

• Lots of islanding.
• Germany is in big trouble.
• Russia declares bankruptcy.
• Nuclear power plants in trouble. Energy not available to close them down. Multiple meltdowns.
• Continued and severe economic depression of the former Soviet states.
• Lots of tensions in the EU as countries try to get off the grid.
• Russia: put your dollars on Lebed. He may come in as the white knight after increased Y2K disaster.
• Issue of weather patterns (i.e., intense winter) may be exacerbating factor to watch for as other events unfold.
• Russia: Mix of bad times, continuing search for religious identity in wake of Soviet collapse, and unceasing media hype from West about apocalyptic Christian groups leads to emergence of large messianic movement in Russia.
• Some pressure on integrity of monetary union as a result of Y2K strains. But European integration may actually be strengthened long term because countries will have to share information and help each other get out of this hole.
• Europe may be rather affected to worse degree than the US economically, but will be much more resilient politically and socially.
• Euro crashes on the rocks of Y2K.
• Possible strains as a result of increased immigrant flow from Eastern Europe and North Africa where social effects of Y2K may be more perilous.
• The UK, the Netherlands, and Sweden will do the best. The millennial celebrations planned in Britain will be seen to have been a major error in judgment. The public will mobilize well to address hardships. Those countries that have been in denial concerning the seriousness of Y2K will realize that they have made a serious misjudgment.
• There may well be technological disasters that will make infrastructure disruptions all the more difficult to address. In the former Eastern bloc countries, where there has been very little consciousness of Y2K and minor efforts to assess and remediate the problem, there has also been little or no preparation of the public and with no steps taken to ready the public to get through the difficulties faced owing to severe infrastructure disruptions. The malfunctioning of nuclear power plants, nuclear weapons systems (particularly the software programs that are involved with targeting and with tracking of incoming missiles), and biological and chemical warfare storage sites could have caused damage locally and globally.
• Perhaps surprisingly, if there is massive economic disruption, the countries most likely to see political extremism could well be the "core" of Germany, France and Benelux rather than the "periphery" of Italy, Spain, etc.
• If there was big disruption, then there would likely be a tilt to the right throughout Europe, since the center-left is now in charge in all but two of the 15 EU countries.
• Tourism is a risk since the winter months in Europe and the US are the major travel times, especially to East Africa and West Africa.
• Russia: There is not high probability that on the national scale there will be good understanding and care of the coming Y2K events. The information and concerns in question will circulate only in limited circles of computer professionals and there may be some criminal and Mafia groups who will plan to get the advantage of the event. Rapid inflation is expected in Russia during this year, which will lead to a great instability in economic, political and psychological respects. At the end of 1999 there will be election to Duma and in the middle of 2000 year, the election of the President. All official structures will be immersed in political games and struggle, and main national resources (money, mass media and so on) will be used for the particularistic purposes of different parties and leaders. The population will loose trust in official power even more, and there will be strikes, starvation, and widespread grief because of the lack of food, order, and responsible officials. The rumors about the (possible) disaster will increase by the end of 1999, and will take on an unpredictable form and scale. The chaos in the beginning of 2000 could cost great numbers o  lives and foment social and governmental crises. To prevent catastrophe, it is very crucial to motivate the proper officials in Russia to prepare better.

• Conspiracy Central--where the ideas come from and have their deepest impact.
• A mix of extremist ideologies and authoritarian states makes for a fearsome brew.
• Wars across borders are likely, as is civil disturbances. Iraqis vs. Kuwait? Palestinians vs. Israel? Syria vs. Turkey? Syria vs. Israel?
• Jerusalem is the navel of the world again.
• Iranians are the single most conspiratorial people--but this is year 1378 for them.
• Surprising Muslim interest in the year 2000, even though this is 1420 according to the Islamic calendar.
• Israelis, the most hi-tech, are also the most vulnerable to Y2K. Need for strong face, and possible preemptive retaliation responses.
• Politicians proclaim Y2K a US plot, and find great response to this line.
• Anti-western governments/opposition groups will try to use Y2K as a wedge to show the population how wrong it is to "depend" on the West. They could use Y2K as validation for their belief that these countries should stand on their own.
• As much as some of these countries depend on oil revenues, it's rational to estimate that remediation efforts in these countries will prioritize the oil and gas industries. These countries have a history of remaining silent on key oil and gas issues (oil production data is a national secret in some), so it would not be out of the ordinary to see that "private transcripts" on Y2K are well ahead of the "public transcripts."
• Lots of scapegoating of "west" and its values.
• India: Pressure on international transportation networks as overseas Indian get where they want to be for 1/1/00 (probably abroad). Draw down of foreign portfolio investment, and slowdown in direct investment. Y2K remediation business booms for software firms, but liability worries increase. First system failures emerge on 1 April 99, beginning of fiscal year 99/00. These failures are drawn into the political debate, as opposition calculates when to pull down current weak coalition government. Current government, in turn, begins scapegoating vulnerable domestic groups, including Christian groups which draws attention of US press, worsening US-India relations. Biggest system failures will be in state-level power systems: petroleum product imports will increase as business/domestic use switches to local diesel generators; ecological pressures on forests increase as rural use (continued in comments). Also see switches from electrical irrigation pumps to kerosene powered pumps (owned by the larger landowners), and greater use of kerosene for production leads more vulnerable rural sectors back to wood and bio-fuels.
• India likely to have influx of New-Agers celebrating millennia. Impact could range from benign to being targeted by Hindu nationalists as another unwanted cultural import from the West.
• India wildcard could be an opportunity to settle scores with Pakistan.
• Israel: Influx of tourist dollars on the order of $1 billion/day will create inflationary pressures and alter distribution of wealth.
• The Haj and Ramadan comes in December-January (Ramadan) and January-February (Haj), creating a lot of sensitivity at the millennium, and travel (e.g., air travel risk with Haj).
• Problems with chemical plants, nuclear power plants, and pipelines will cause major damage. The government will not be able to move fast enough to address the needs of the public in the emergency situation.
• Y2K is one issue where a history of incompetence in terms of economic development pays off.

• High levels of islanding, i.e., between advanced countries/systems such as Hong Kong, Singapore, southern China (maybe with Hong Kong), Taiwan (the haves) and the rest (Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, aka, the have nots). Of course, those less developed will also be less affected. However, as we have seen with the Asian financial crisis, if a country is cut off from capital, particularly one with a large population such as Indonesia, major disruptions will occur, including high levels of unrest.
• Is this an event that drives Asia to further cooperation (i.e., we really need to have stronger "Asian" solutions/institutions and not be so heavily reliant on Western capital markets, networks, etc., continuing arguments that the Asian financial crisis has highlighted)? Or is this the straw that breaks the camel's back and forces real structural political/economic change in systems that have been shown to be fragile?
• Japan: Very slow response to emergency situation. This will disrupt many Asian markets. Japanese easily go into depressed position, waiting for someone to take responsibility. No one will.
• Japan: Trying to cover up Y2K failures in 1999 until in 2000 it will no longer be possible. Then follows an isolationist response.
• Will Asian Financial Crisis #1 help lead to Asian Financial Crisis #2? By this I mean has the current financial crisis drawn off some of the resources that could otherwise have been used for Y2K efforts, thus causing a second crisis when systems are not functioning as well as in other countries/regions?
• Japan: The masses will want the people who are in power (corporate, government) to identify who is responsible. They will want someone to take responsibility for this, and then there will be a public outcry against these individuals. Tokyo will be greatly effected. The subway system will be the most obvious indicator of how bad the situation is going to be. Tokyo and Shinjuku stations will be transportation flashpoints. We should know about these before midnight in the US.
• Japan: Will be much slower in their ability to respond to technical crisis then the US. Japanese engineers still lack the innovative ability to work around many problems, this is not to say that it won't be done, it will just be much slower then the US.
• Japan: Suicide rate increases significantly.
• Possible IT attacks, e.g., North Korea on South Korea, or versus Malaysia.
• Japan: Will look for other excuses than Y2K and preparedness for outages. Public will KNOW the truth.
• Indonesia: Chinese minority catches the blame for IT failures.
• Malaysian PM Mahathir will have a new weapon with which to stir up anti-Western (US) sentiment. He will give an interview to FEER in December that will lay the blame squarely on US.
• Indonesia: Chinese Government decides in November or December to send planes to take out ethnic Chinese minority.
• Laos breezes through Jan 1.
• Huge problems: there's so much pirated software that is not Y2K complainant, and the vendor does not understand the issue. Also, there's a tradition of computer bugs and viruses.
• The good news is, China is not as dependent on computers as developed countries, so many basic services, such as food distribution, will be fine. The bad news is that China has pirated software (90% in government offices, by some estimates), has a complex mixture of legacy systems, large numbers of vendors, late start, lack of clear funding mandates (both in central government and local governments), etc.
• Watch the Nikkei as a leading indicator.
• The banking systems will be cut off from the banks that are compliant in other parts of the world. Foreign trade will be drastically affected. Various aspects of the 14-step process typically involved in foreign trade processes will fail because of non-compliant computers cause insurmountable obstacles to completing portions of the process. Lots of internal scapegoating and political upheaval because of the failure of the political leadership to have foreseen the problem and to have addressed it in a timely way.
• Chemical plants and pipelines could pose major problems.
• Certain highly urbanized areas are vulnerable to disruption: the city states of Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan. There’s a lot of population concentrations that really need infrastructure and systems, water, fuel sewage and power.

• South Africa--in an IT sense--is the most vulnerable, but also the most prepared. Problem for RSA may be older pre-94 embedded systems or idiosyncratic systems that are in the private sector.
• Bigger risk in Southern Africa comes from systems going across borders, such as Southern Africa Power Pool, possibly water systems (such as highlands water), or ports and rail. Problem in part comes from relative weakness of regional coordination on technical issues.
• In Southern Africa, a key unknown is need for grain imports through region, both from outside of region (via ocean transport) as well as intra-regional trade, relying on rail/truck.
• In other parts of Africa, there is probably a bigger risk from telecommunications and power sector failure. If ports are affected for more than a month or so there can be a lot of problems, but that's hard to predict.
• Scary issue for Africa are small number of embedded systems in extraction and processing industries, in sectors of critical import to local economy, supplying a key export for OECD, or with potential environmental risk (such as fertilizers/pesticides). And of these, the biggest risk is with firms not linked to multinationals. It's also possibly worse in the francophone world than the anglophone world, due to the relative perspectives on Y2K of France and the UK.
• Many rural areas experience little disruption in daily activity--local markets continue to function and prices rise as urban dwellers appear and try to buy foodstuffs in large quantities but soon vendors limit the amounts that they sell to individual buyers. Household granaries are full due to the good rains from the last planting season, school fees have been paid for the year, taxes have been paid and much of the hoopla is unfelt in many areas. In neighboring countries however, the situation is different--chaos at the port has led to a military coup, rationing of staples and loss of security due to dependency on export trade. Thus, the range of reactions, responses and felt impact varies greatly.
• Blacksmiths, toolmakers, farmers who produce staples such as food and cotton experience increased demand for their wares. Salaried employment and cash transactions are replaced by barter of goods and services in some areas.
• Unknown risk is opportunistic civil unrest/civil war/coups, either due to massive disruptions (such as expansion of famines, etc.) or small but critical cuts (such as cut in petroleum products). This will vary in terms of risk based on political systems and existing tensions, but it will be worse if these impacts are not predicted ahead of time. Preplanning/scenario development for Africa would be highly cost-effective.
• Overall, South Africa will be able to handle the crossover with major problems in the government departments, particularly local authorities. Namibia, Swaziland and Lesotho will seek help from RSA in case there are any major disruptions. Mozambique may be unable to pay debts incurred as a result of the bug, so expect illegal migration into South Africa.  Same will occur with Zimbabwe, which is facing political and labor turmoil. Angola will probably be the worst hit as focus will be on the peace initiatives.
• The big problem may be secondary: the faltering of global tele-culture will open up the field for a wide range of "settling private transcripts."  No one will be watching.
• In parts of Africa, perishable crops are in fact important and--unfortunately--are time sensitive and just so happen to be at their height in January/February. It's not big, but it is growing and in certain countries such as Uganda, Malawi, Rwanda, Kenya and Tanzania, it's far more important than "primary commodities." And unfortunately, the problem with perishables--unlike raw materials--is temporary cuts in air travel actually DOES have an economic effect.
• Links between the Euro and the CFA (via the franc) represent an interesting unknown. Possible breakdowns in bank transfers, remittances, and even availability of cash might be a problem, also the problem that most countries don't print their own bills. If short-term trauma leads to pressure on cash on hand (as people move some money out of banks temporarily in fear of access problems), there may be a physical problem in getting more cash in circulation quickly.
• Personal leadership will be very important in channeling the type, nature and magnitude of reactions. Thus, reaction will vary greatly.

 III. Short Bios of Participants and Project Members

Cdr. Charles Adams, U.S. Coast Guard
Cdr. Adams serves as Y2K Liaison Officer for the Coast Guard.

Ken Alnwick
Mr. Alnwick serves as a private contractor on the Table Top Exercise series coordinated out of the Office of  the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (OASD C3I).  He is employed by Kapos Associates.

Capt. Joe Bouchard, U.S. Navy
National Security Council, White House.

R. James Caverly
Jim Caverly is currently in the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the Department of Energy (DOE).  He has been with the Department and its predecessor agencies for over 20 years, working on a broad range of energy-related issues including energy security, domestic energy supply, nuclear safeguards and security, energy emergency response, and national security.  He is a graduate of the University of Notre Dame and the Naval War College and served for three years as the DOE Chair on the faculty of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF).

VADM Arthur K. Cebrowski, U.S. Navy
Vice Admiral Cebrowski became the 47th President, Naval War College in July 1998.  He had previously served as Director, Navy Space, Information Warfare, Command and Control (N6).  Vice Admiral Cebrowski has commanded Fighter Squadron 41 and Carrier Air Wing EIGHT, both embarked in USS NIMITZ (CVN 68).  He later commanded the assault ship USS GUAM (LPH 9).  During Operation Desert Storm, he commanded the aircraft carrier USS MIDWAY (CV 41).  Following promotion to flag rank, he became Commander, Carrier Group SIX and Commander, AMERICA Battle Group.  In addition to combat deployments to Vietnam and the Persian Gulf, he has deployed in support of United Nations operations in Iraq, Somalia and Bosnia.  Vice Admiral Cebrowski holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics from Villanova University and a Master of Science Degree in Computer Systems Management from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.

Edward A. Deagle, Jr.
Dr. Deagle is Chairman of Potomac Finishing Company, his wholly-owned business consulting firm.  He is a business executive with broad and varied experience in public and private management, public policy and technology.  He has served in a variety of positions in government, most recently as Assistant to the Secretary of Defense.  He has held a variety of executive positions in Hughes Aircraft Company and SRA International.  Mr. Deagle holds a BS in Engineering from the U.S. Military Academy, and an MPA and PhD in Economics from Harvard University.

Lt. Col. Bill Finehout, U.S. Army
Conventional War Plans, J7, Joint Staff.

Jeff Gaynor
Mr. Gaynor serves in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (OASD C3I).  He is currently the Director of Y2K Operations there.

Capt. Bill Gravell, U.S. Navy
Capt. Gravell currently serves on the Chief of Naval Operations' Executive Panel.

Michael B. Harrington
Dr. Harrington currently serves as Principal Information Technology Economist at the Economic and Decision Analysis Center of The MITRE Corporation's Washington C3 Center.  Dr. Harrington has played a principal technical and/or managerial role in research projects conducted for a variety of federal agencies.  At this time, Dr. Harrington leads a project that involves examining the efforts in key countries and infrastructural sectors to carry out Y2K remediation programs, assessing the probable impact on US interests of possible failures in these efforts.  He has an MS (Econometrics) and PhD. (Systems Analysis) in Public Management from the University of California at Irvine.

Paul B. Kourtz
Mr. Kourtz is currently a Senior Analyst specializing in telecommunications technologies and the Year 2000 Problem for the U.S. Office of Transnational Issues.  His career in technical analysis spans more than three decades, during which time Mr. Kourtz has been involved in the design and deployment of technical collection systems, and the analysis of naval and space weapons systems, electronic warfare systems, dual-use technologies, and Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I).  He has also served as a representative to the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization.

Richard A. Landes
Prof. Landes holds a position in the Department of History at Boston University, and has served as Director of the Center for Millennial Studies since he founded it in 1996.  He has written widely on the subject of medieval history, millennial and apocalyptic movements, and the coming millennial event.  At the Center for Millennial Studies, he has organized and led a number of conferences on the Year 2000, including one of the first on Y2K.  Dr. Landes has also made a number of national media appearances related to these subjects.  He has a BA in Social Studies from Harvard University, a diploma from the Ecole Normale Superieure, and an MA and PhD in History from Princeton University.

Jennifer A. Lee
Ms. Lee grew up in a military family and spend much of her youth stationed overseas, as well as in the U.S.  After graduating from Rhodes College with a BA in Spanish and Economics, she moved to the Washington DC area where she worked for Mack McLarty, former Counselor to the President of the United States and Special Envoy for Latin America.  Ms. Lee received her MS in Foreign Service from Georgetown University.  She recently joined the U.S. State Department and has been assigned to the Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs on Latin America, focusing her attention on Columbia.

Maureen Lischke
Ms. Lischke is an administrator with the U.S. National Guard.

Frank C. Mahncke
Mr. Mahncke is the Chief Analyst for the Strategic and Technology Initiatives Directorate of the Joint Warfare Assessment Center of the U.S. Department of Defense.  In this capacity, he has developed programs in campaign analyses, methodology research and development, and emerging defense issues.  In previous government service, Mr. Mahncke served as Science Advisor to the Commander of the Atlantic Fleet and Head of the Systems Analysis Branch of the Naval Surface Warfare Center.  He has a BA in Mathematics from Bowdoin College, an MPA in Operations Research from American University, and a graduate degree from the U.S. Naval War College.

James Melnick
Y2K Planning Cell, J2, Joint Staff.

John Osterholz
Mr. Osterholz serves as Director, Information Integration and Interoperability in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (OASD C3I).  He is currently directing the Table Top Exercise series for the Defense Department on Y2K.

Daniel Pipes
Dr. Pipes is Editor of the Middle East Quarterly and Senior Lecturer at the University of Pennsylvania.  He has also taught at the University of Chicago, Harvard University, and the U.S. Naval War College.  Dr. Pipes previously served in the U.S. Departments of State and Defense, as well as Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.  He has appeared frequently on U.S. television, and has testified before several U.S. Senate and House committees.  Dr. Pipes has written ten books, most of which focus on the Middle East.  His last volume, Conspiracy: How the Paranoid Style Flourishes, and Where It Comes From (1997) establishes the importance of conspiracy theories in modern European and American politics.  He has a BA and PhD in History from Harvard University.

Olen Sisson
Mr. Sisson is a senior analyst in the Department of the Navy.

RADM John F. Sigler
Director of Strategic Plans and Policy (J5), U.S. Central Command.

Paul S. Triolo
Mr. Triolo brings both technical and humanities experience to analysis of the Y2K problem.  He graduated from Penn State in 1982 with a degree in Electrical Engineering.  After working in industry, he returned to school and received an MA in International Relations from Catholic University. Mr. Triolo, who speaks and reads Chinese, worked in China as an English teacher before and during the Tiananmen events of 1989.  Since joining the U.S. State Department in 1991, he has focused on Asia and China.  During his most recent overseas tour, he served in the U.S. Embassy in Beijing from 1995-97 in the Economics Section.  Since his return to Washington, he has continued to follow developments in China's IT sector in the Department's Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs.

Mitzi Wertheim
Ms. Wertheim is a seasoned organizational change manager for large-scale government and industry organizations, as well as not-for-profit organizations.  She specializes in developing effective organizational responses to challenges and opportunities presented by rapid technologcial, market, and cultural developments.  Ms. Wertheim learned and exercised these skills in a series of senior executive assignments in private industry (e.g., IBM and SRA International), and in the Department of Defense (Department of Navy, Office of the Secretary of Defense).  Before that, she held responsible positions with the Cafritz Foundation and the Peace Corps in Washington DC.  She is now with The CNA Corporation, a Defense Department think tank located in Alexandria Virginia.

Robert S. Wood
Dr. Wood is the Dean of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies, a focal point of strategic analysis and gaming in the naval service.  He holds the Chester W. Nimitz Chair of National Security and Foreign Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College and has twice served as Director of the Chief of Naval Operations' Strategic Studies Group.  He consults regularly with the National Security Council and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. A Phi Beta Kappa graduate in History from Stanford University, he earned his A.M. and Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University, where he also served on the faculty.
 
 

Thomas P.M. Barnett
Dr. Barnett is Professor and Senior Strategic Researcher at the Decision Support Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies.  He currently directs the Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project.  Prior to joining the College, he served as Project Director for The CNA Corporation of Alexandria, Virginia, where he managed the U.S. Agency for International Development account.  His most recent work, "The Seven Deadly Sins of Network-Centric Warfare," appeared in the January 1999 issue of the U.S. Naval Institute's Proceedings.  He has a BA in Russian Literature and U.S. Foreign Policy from the University of Wisconsin, and an MA in Eurasian Studies and a PhD in Government from Harvard University.

Lawrence E. Modisett
Dr. Modisett is Director of the Decision Support Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies.  In this capacity he oversees and participates in a wide variety of national security studies.  Dr. Modisett's fields of expertise include international affairs, national security issues, and Russia and Eastern Europe.  His prior government service includes a 19-year career as Analyst and Manager at the Central Intelligence Agency, and a three-year stint in the U.S. Information Agency as a member of the Foreign Service.  He has a BA in English from Ohio Wesleyan University, and an MS in Foreign Service and a PhD in History from Georgetown University.

Theophilos Gemelas
Mr. Gemelas is currently an Associate Professor with the Decision Support Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies (CNWS), US Naval War College. He is dual-hatted with both research and technical responsibilities. As a researcher he develops and markets research proposals, develops research designs, directs projects, and facilitates meetings through the use of group collaboration technology and decision science tools. He presently serves as project manager supporting the Commander in Chief, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe in research to enhance theater engagement strategy. He also manages the CNWS web page development project and serves as information technology advisor to the Dean, CNWS.

Bradd C. Hayes
Professor Bradd C. Hayes is a Senior Strategic Researcher in the Decision Support Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies, US Naval War College. He has been a member of the Naval War College faculty since August 1992, serving from August 1992 to July 1996 as Assistant Director of the Strategic Research Department while on active duty as a Captain in the US Navy. Prior to assuming that position, he was the Strategy and Policy Officer for the Commander in Chief, US Naval Forces Europe, in London, from 1989 to 1992. Previous appointments included command of Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron Six aboard USS Enterprise (1988-89), followed by a tour as a Federal Executive Fellow with the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, CA, which culminated with the publication of a RAND Note entitled, Naval Rules of Engagement: Management Tools for Crisis.
 

IV. Web Sites You Can Check Out on Y2K

•  U.S. Naval War College

• Center for Millennial Studies

• Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network

• Washington DC Year 2000 Group

• World Bank's Year 2000 links page

• The Mitre Corporation's Y2K page

• Washington State's Y2K links page

• The New York Times's Millennium Bug index page

• David Isenberg's web site

• The Cassandra Project

• "Risks to the Public in Computers and Related Systems" Archive Site

• The CNA Corporation web site (Center for Naval Analyses)

V. Additional Administrative Details/Directions

• For administrative questions regarding the project, please contact Avon Teague at 401.841.1901 (teaguea@nwc.navy.mil)
• For questions regarding the workshop at CNA, please contact Bernadette Noble at 703.824.2804 (nobleb@cna.org)