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READ-AHEAD PACKAGE FOR
U.S. NAVAL WAR
COLLEGE
Y2K ECONOMIC SECURITY WORKSHOP
HELD AT
050399*
* six-digit field denoting May (05) 3rd (03), 1999 (99)
Year 2000 International Security
Dimension Project
Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, Director
401.841.4053/barnettt@nwc.navy.mil
Contents
I. Description of workshop schedule and
instructions
Monday, 050399
Hosted by Cantor Fitzgerald
Floor 107 Conference Room at "Windows on the World,"
One Trade
Center, New York NY
|
WORKSHOP ORIENTATION |
7:30 am
Check-in and continental breakfast at
the Windows on the World Conference Room
8:00 am
Welcoming remarks by:
8:10 am
8:30 am
Pre-Workshop GroupSystems Session on
Price Quotes by Prof. Bradd Hayes
INSTRUCTIONS: We'll ask participants to offer
us estimates of where key global financial indicators will reside at various
points over the Y2K experience. The nine indicators are:
The benchmark for each indicator will be taken from the most recent market data available prior to the exercise
8:50 am
Project overview presentation by Dr.
Thomas Barnett
9:45 am
Break
|
WORKSHOP SESSION I--THE MANIA/COUNTDOWN PHASES (070199-123199) |
10:00 am
Scenario phase orientation brief (Dr.
Barnett)
10:15 am
GroupSystems Session on Price Quotes
(Prof. Hayes)
INSTRUCTIONS: We'll ask participants to offer
us estimates of where key global financial indicators will reside at the end of
the combined Mania (070199-112599)/Countdown (112699-123199) phases of the Y2K
experience. Thus the target date will be the close of markets on Friday,
123199.
10:30 am
Open discussion section on Mania and
Countdown Phases (Dr. Barnett)
11:30 am
GroupSystems Session on Global Market
Trends and Evolutions Influenced by Y2K's Impact (Dr. Barnett)
INSTRUCTIONS: We'll present
participants with a draft list of 2-3 global market trends that we think may be
significantly influenced by how these two phases of the Y2K experience
unfold. We'll first ask them to offer additional ideas stemming from the
just concluded discussion and, following that input, participants will vote on
the top five most important potential legacies. We'll then ask
participants to spend a few minutes offering commentary on the five selected
legacies, to include their individual call as to which of the following three
outcomes is most likely to occur for each legacy issue:
12:00 noon
|
WORKSHOP SESSION II--THE ONSET/UNFOLDING PHASES (010100-033100) |
1:00 pm
Scenario phase orientation brief (Dr.
Barnett)
1:15 pm
GroupSystems Session on Price Quotes
(Prof. Hayes)
INSTRUCTIONS: We'll ask participants to offer
us estimates of where key global financial indicators will reside at the end of
the combined Onset (010100-011400)/Unfolding (011500-033100) phases of the Y2K
experience. Thus the target date will be the close of markets on Friday,
033100.
1:30 pm
Open discussion section on Onset and
Unfolding Phases (Dr. Barnett)
2:30 pm
GroupSystems Session on Global Market
Trends and Evolutions Influenced by Y2K's Impact (Dr. Barnett)
INSTRUCTIONS: Same as
above.
3:00 pm
Break
|
WORKSHOP SESSION III--THE PEAK/EXIT PHASES (040100-????00) |
3:15 pm
Scenario phase orientation brief (Dr.
Barnett)
3:30 pm
GroupSystems Session on Price Quotes
(Prof. Hayes)
INSTRUCTIONS: We'll ask participants to offer
us estimates of where key global financial indicators will reside at an
arbitrary date during our posited Peak (040100-063000)/Exit (063000-????00)
phases of the Y2K experience. The date chosen will be the close of markets
on Friday, 063000.
3:45 pm
Open discussion section on Onset and
Unfolding Phases (Dr. Barnett)
4:30 pm
GroupSystems Session on Global Market
Trends and Evolutions Influenced by Y2K's Impact (Dr. Barnett)
INSTRUCTIONS: Same as
above.
4:50 pm
Final Comments by
Participants
5:30 pm
Adjourn
|
POST-WORKSHOP SOCIAL EVENT AT "WINDOWS ON THE WORLD" (FLOOR 107) |
6:00 pm
Cocktails
6:30 pm
Dinner served
II. Short Bios of Participants, Observers, and Project Members
|
Workshop Participants |
Bill Bone
Bill Bone is currently the Year 2000 Program
Officer for the NASD, the parent company of the Nasdaq-Amex Market Group and
NASD Regulation. Areas under his coordination include the following: (1)
remediation, systems replacement, and recertification, (2) Year 2000 regulatory
policies, oversight, and reporting of NASD member firms preparedness, (3) Year
2000 test centers, (4) audit, risk management, and program review, (5) the Year
2000 communications center, (6) enterprise business continuity planning, and (7)
the Year 2000 program office. Bill also serves as the corporate officer
representing the NASD, and its subsidiaries, in the following functions: (1)
Year 2000 industry steering committee sponsored by the SIA, (2) SEC Year 2000
program, (3) the Global 2000 forum, and (4) the President's Council on Year
2000. Bill has continued his education extensively since 1989--primarily at
Stanford and MIT; he pursues annual sabbaticals in contemporary computer science
topics.
Dan Casey
Mr. Casey is the
Information Technology Head of the Year 2000 Project at Paribas, a large
international bank and finance house.
R. James
Caverly
Jim Caverly is
currently in the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the Department of
Energy (DOE). He has been with the Department and its predecessor agencies for
over 20 years, working on a broad range of energy-related issues including
energy security, domestic energy supply, nuclear safeguards and security, energy
emergency response, and national security. He is a graduate of the University of
Notre Dame and the Naval War College and served for three years as the DOE Chair
on the faculty of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF).
Len Costa
Len A. Costa is a reporter at FORTUNE magazine with
interests in international finance and economics. Before coming to FORTUNE, Mr.
Costa was an analyst at the Newmarket Company, an international information
services firm specializing in emerging markets. He has written for the Forbes
Digital Tool and Bloomberg News, and has free-lanced for the New York Times. Mr.
Costa holds a master's degree from Columbia's School of International and Public
Affairs, where he served as a senior editor of the Journal of International
Affairs. He is a graduate of the University of Virginia and holds a diploma in
French civilization from the Sorbonne in Paris.
Adm. William Flanagan, U.S. Navy
(ret.)
"Bud" Flanagan is a Senior Managing Director at Cantor
Fitzgerald LP, the world's largest broker of U.S. Government securities,
Eurobonds, and sovereign debt. The admiral's portfolio focuses on emerging
markets, particularly those brought about by government deregulation and
privatization. He served in the U.S. Navy for 29 years, his final position
being Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Atlantic Fleet from 1994-96, with
geographic responsibilities for the entire Western Hemisphere and all of West
Europe. Adm. Flanagan is a graduate of the Massachusetts Maritime Academy,
and holds a BS in Maritime Transport and an MA in Political Science from
American University.
Philip Ginsberg
Dr. Ginsberg is
a Senior Vice President at Cantor Fitzgerald, the world's largest broker of U.S.
Government securities, Eurobonds, and sovereign debt. He is also Vice
President of the Cantor Fitzgerald Foundation and Director of Cantor Fitzgerald
International. Prior to this, Dr. Ginsberg served as a consultant to both
industry and government, and held academic postings at the University of
Washington, Rutgers University, and Northwestern University's Kellogg School of
Management. He also founded the Llorex Corporation, which specialized in
financial information products. He has a BA in Mathematics from Cornell
University, and an MA and PhD in Economics from Purdue University.
Calvin Gooding
Mr. Gooding is a
trader at Cantor Fitzgerald.
Norm Green
Mr. Green is
currently the Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Science and Technology on
the National Intelligence Council. He served as an active duty Naval
Intelligence officer for 13 years before joining the Central Intelligence Agency
in 1987. Duty within the CIA has included tours within the Counterintelligence
Center, the Office of Scientific and Weapons Research, the Nonproliferation
Center and a rotation to the White House as a member of the Presidents Foreign
Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) staff. Mr. Green remains in the Naval
Intelligence Reserves, where he currently serves as a Captain USNR. He holds a
BS in Biology from the University of New Mexico and a MA in National Security
Affairs from the Naval Postgraduate School.
Damian Harte
Mr. Harte is Vice
President, Westdeutsche Landesbank G.Z.
Kent Karosen
Mr. Karosen holds
the position of Director at Cantor Fitzgerald, the world's largest broker of
U.S. Government securities, Eurobonds, and sovereign debt.
Glenn Kirwin
Mr. Kirwin holds a
senior position at Cantor Fitzgerald, the world's largest broker of U.S.
Government securities, Eurobonds, and sovereign debt.
Carolyn Landry
Ms. Landry is
from the National Intelligence Council. Her speciality is Banking and Finance.
Rear Admiral Peter Long
Admiral Long is the Provost of the U.S. Naval War
College. He attended the United States Naval Academy and graduated with the
class of 1967. His most recent sea tours have been as Executive Officer, USS
ALBERT DAVID; Commanding Officer, USS DAVID R RAY; Commanding Officer, USS
REEVES; Commander, Cruiser-Destroyer Group FIVE and Commander, KITTY HAWK Battle
Group. Admiral Long holds a Doctor of Science degree in Learning Technology from
Nova Southeastern University. He is a graduate of the Industrial College of the
Armed Forces and has attended the National Security Leadership Course, Maxwell
School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, and the Paul H. Nitze School of
Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
Paul Nicholas
Mr. Nicholas is a
professional staff member on the Special Senate Committee on the Year 2000
Technology Problem, which is chaired by Senator Robert Bennett from Utah. Mr.
Nicholas is responsible for researching the impact of Y2K on telecommunications
and the long-term implications Y2K may have on infrastructure assurance.
John Rice
Mr. Rice is the U.S
Treasurer and Vice President of Citicorp Bank.
William G. Roe
Mr. Roe joined
Melhado, Flynn & Associates Inc. of South Carolina in 1966 as Vice President
and Branch Manager of the Hilton Head Office and serves as the firm's syndicate
manager. With almost 40 years of investment experience, he has held senior
positions at Varnedoe, Chisolm, Skinner & Company, G.H. Walker Company,
Henry Sims Securities and Interstate Securities. A graduate of the University of
Georgia, Mr. Roe served in the U.S. Marine Corps, and is active in South
Carolina civic affairs.
CDR Gary
Shrout
Commander
Shrout currently serves as the Public Affairs Officer (PAO) for the Naval War
College. His sea duty included assignment to the staff of the Commander,
THIRD FLEET. His shore assignments include tours as Director, Navy Office
of Information (West), Director of the Media Information Division for the Chief
of Information, PAO at Naval Base Pearl Harbor, and Assistant PAO at Naval
Forces Japan. CDR Shrout has a BA in Photojournalism from the University
of Minnesota, is a graduate of the University of Oklahoma Short Course in Public
Affairs and the Defense Information School PAO Course, and received his MA in
Journalism and Public Relations from the University of Maryland, College
Park.
Richard R. Snape
Mr. Snape is Chief Operating Officer at Telerate.
Prior to this position, he was an Executive Vice President at BRIDGE,
responsible for content and redistribution. Before that, he served as President
of BT Financial Services Information Systems, a subsidiary of Bankers Trust
Company, which developed, marketed and supported risk management technology for
treasury trading at international banks. From 1982-1990, Mr. Snape worked for
Telerate Systems Inc. in various capacities, including Deputy Managing Director
of Europe and Vice President of Sales and Marketing for the America's Group. He
holds a BA in English Literature from Yale and graduated Magna Cum Laude.
Robert Stevens
Mr. Stevens currently works in the National
Information Protection Center (NIPC) at the Federal Bureau of Investigation
(FBI). He is on loan from the U.S. State Department. Mr. Stevens retired from
the U.S. Air Force in 1997. During his military career, he served as an ICBM
Missile Maintenance & Operations Officer, and ended up working in all levels
of the Strategic Air Command. He later served as an International
Politico-Military Affairs Officer detailed to the Arms Control & Disarmament
Agency, State Department, and the On-Site Inspection Agency. Mr. Stevens has a
BS from the University of Akron in Biology, Physics and Geology, an MS from the
University of Southern California in Systems Management, and an MS from the Air
Force Institute of Technology in International Logistics.
Mitzi
Wertheim
Ms. Wertheim is a
seasoned organizational change manager for large-scale government and industry
organizations, as well as not-for-profit organizations. She specializes in
developing effective organizational responses to challenges and opportunities
presented by rapid technologcial, market, and cultural developments. Ms.
Wertheim learned and exercised these skills in a series of senior executive
assignments in private industry and in the Department of Defense (Department of
Navy, Office of the Secretary of Defense). Before that, she held
responsible positions with the Cafritz Foundation and the Peace Corps in
Washington DC. She is now with The CNA Corporation, a Defense Department
think tank located in Alexandria Virginia.
Robert S.
Wood
Dr. Wood is the Dean of
the Center for Naval Warfare Studies, a focal point of strategic analysis and
gaming in the naval service. He holds the Chester W. Nimitz Chair of National
Security and Foreign Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College and has twice served
as Director of the Chief of Naval Operations' Strategic Studies Group. He
consults regularly with the National Security Council and the Office of the
Secretary of Defense. A Phi Beta Kappa graduate in History from Stanford
University, he earned his A.M. and Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard
University, where he also served on the faculty.
|
Year 2000 Internat'l Security Dimension Project Members |
Thomas P.M.
Barnett
Dr. Barnett is
Professor and Senior Strategic Researcher at the Decision Support Department of
the Center for Naval Warfare Studies. He currently directs the Year
2000 International Security Dimension Project. Prior to joining the
College, he served as Project Director for The CNA Corporation of Alexandria,
Virginia, where he managed the U.S. Agency for International Development
account. His most recent work, "The Seven Deadly Sins of Network-Centric
Warfare," appeared in the January 1999 issue of the U.S. Naval Institute's
Proceedings. He has a BA in Russian Literature and U.S. Foreign
Policy from the University of Wisconsin, and an MA in Eurasian Studies and a PhD
in Government from Harvard University.
Henry D. Kamradt
Mr. Kamradt
serves as Professor and Senior Strategic Researcher at the Decision Support
Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies. He is currently
directing and participating in a number of projects concerning the future of
network-centric warfare, to include the subject areas of sensor architecture and
technological surprises. Prof. Kamradt's areas of expertise include
anti-submarine and surface warfare, as well as naval intelligence. Prior
to joining the College, he worked as a Senior Analyst for Sonalysts, Inc., and
later founded and directed his own consulting firm. Prof. Kamradt also
served in the U.S. Navy from 1977 through 1984. He has a BA from Duke
University.
Bradd C.
Hayes
Professor Bradd C. Hayes
is a Senior Strategic Researcher in the Decision Support Department of the
Center for Naval Warfare Studies, US Naval War College. He has been a member of
the faculty since August 1992, previously serving as Assistant Director of the
Strategic Research Department. Prior to that, he was the Strategy and Policy
Officer for the Commander in Chief, US Naval Forces Europe. Previous
appointments included command of Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron Six aboard
USS Enterprise, followed by a tour as a Federal Executive Fellow with the RAND
Corporation, culminating with the publication of a RAND Note entitled, Naval
Rules of Engagement: Management Tools for Crisis.
Lawrence E.
Modisett
Dr. Modisett is
Director of the Decision Support Department of the Center for Naval Warfare
Studies. In this capacity he oversees and participates in a wide variety
of national security studies. Dr. Modisett's fields of expertise include
international affairs, national security issues, and Russia and Eastern
Europe. His prior government service includes a 19-year career as Analyst
and Manager at the Central Intelligence Agency, and a three-year stint in the
U.S. Information Agency as a member of the Foreign Service. He has a BA in
English from Ohio Wesleyan University, and an MS in Foreign Service and a PhD in
History from Georgetown University.
Theophilos
Gemelas
Mr. Gemelas is
currently an Associate Professor with the Decision Support Department, Center
for Naval Warfare Studies (CNWS), US Naval War College. He is dual-hatted with
both research and technical responsibilities. As a researcher he develops and
markets research proposals, develops research designs, directs projects, and
facilitates meetings through the use of group collaboration technology and
decision science tools. He presently serves as project manager supporting the
Commander in Chief, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe in research to enhance theater
engagement strategy. He also manages the CNWS web page development project and
serves as information technology advisor to the Dean, CNWS.
Avon
Teague
Ms. Teague is the
Department Administrator at the Decision Support Department of the Center for
Naval Warfare Studies, US Naval War College.
III. Web Sites You Can Check Out on Y2K
IV. Additional Administrative Details/Maps
| Go Back to Y2K Project Home Page |