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U.S. Naval War College

Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett

with

Prof. Henry D. Kamradt

and based on inputs from
Dr. Lawrence Modisett, Prof. Bradd Hayes, Prof. Theophilos C. Gemelas, & Prof. Gregory Hoffman 

Center for Naval Warfare Studies
Decision Support Department
Originally posted 23 July 1999

Please direct all feedback on this online version of the final report to Dr. Barnett. 

I. Introduction

II. Our Big Picture Approach

III. A Series of Y2K Onset Models

IV. The M Curve of Influence

V. The Scenario Dynamics Grid

VI. Some Preliminary Thinking on CINCs' Strategies

VII. A View From Wall Street

VIII. Some Cosmic Conclusions About Y2K

Appendix Y: List of Workshop Participants

Appendix 2: Workshop Readaheads

Appendix K: Workshop GroupSystems Inputs

Updated 27 December 1999