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READ-AHEAD PACKAGE FOR
3-4 DECEMBER SCENARIO-BUILDING WORKSHOP
AT U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project
Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, Director

Contents

• Detailed description of  workshop schedule and instructions for preparation, with examples of inputs we're looking to get from participants

• Short bios of participants and key project team members

• Breakdown of participants by key subject area (i.e., where we see all of you fitting into our big picture)

• Web sites you may want to check out before coming

• Additional administrative details (POC: Avon Teague; 401.841-1798; teaguea@nwc.navy.mil)

Description of workshop schedule and instructions

Wednesday night orientation/reception (2 December)

WHEN:   7-9 pm

WHERE:  U.S. Naval War College Officers Club (located on base, just inside Gate 1 and right on the shore looking up toward the Newport Bridge; ask for directions at the front desk at the Susse Chalet).

WHAT:  A few welcoming comments, something to eat and drink, and a chance to get to know some of your fellow participants.  It's not mandatory, as we know many will be arriving throughout the evening, but we hope to meet as many of you there as possible.

DRESS:  Business attire
 
 

Thursday workshop sessions (3 December)

7:30 am
Check-in at Sims Hall.
Once you sign in at the front desk (known as the "quarterdeck"), follow the signs to the second floor Decision Support Center.  We will serve a continental breakfast there.

8:00 am
Workshop introduction by Dr. Tom Barnett.
INSTRUCTIONS: Bring an open mind.  We're not going to solve the "Y2K puzzle" here, nor narrow in on THE PREDICTION.  All of you are coming with some preconceived notions as to what's really important and interesting about Y2K, and we want to hear all of those ideas.  Just remember that the spread of participants means a wide variety of viewpoints will emerge.  Our immediate goal at the War College is not to pick the "winners" and discard the "losers," but to gather as much information as we can about the "plausible."

8:15 am
Presentation by Dr. Richard Landes, Director of Boston University's Center for Millennial Studies, on "Thinking about 'millennial mania' as a baseline case for Y2K scenarios."

8:45 am
Introduction to GroupSystems by Prof. Hank Kamradt (i.e., familiarizing everyone with their individual laptops and how they connect to the main server that runs the facilitation software).
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll run you through a short drill to make sure you know how to input material, review the input of others, comment on the input of others, keep a notepad for commentary, and cast votes.

9:00 am
"Headlines in History"/Discussion Segment I: Thinking about Y2K as a se-ries of discrete, periodic events that occur over much of 1999 and 2000.
INSTRUCTIONS:  This segment will last 60 minutes, the first 20 of which will be taken up by a GroupSystems session (meaning you'll spend your time doing one of three things: 1) typing in your own inputs via your dedicated laptop; 2) reviewing the input of others via your laptop; and 3) commenting on the input of others).  In this GroupSystems session, we'll be asking for inputs that we're calling "Headlines in History."  What we'd like from each of you is two such "headlines," one that represents a "leading edge" description of whatever issue you wish to explore, and one that represents a "post-mortem" description of the same issue.  By "leading edge," we mean we want your story's dateline (i.e., date and foreign city or country location) to fall somewhere between today and 31 January 2000.  It's up to you to pick the date, but it should roughly correlate to whatever subject you're presenting (e.g., if it's about remediation efforts, you might target a date somewhere in the summer of 1999; if it's about last-minute panic erupting somewhere, you might target late December 1999).  By "postmortem," we mean we want your story's dateline to fall anytime after 31 January 2000 (meaning as far into the future as you care to go).  In sum, your "headline" entry should consist of a title (such as one would find in a newspaper), a dateline, and the first few lines of your "story."  In this segment, we're looking for stories that you think we could all be reading at points in the future if Y2K turns out to be a largely discrete series of isolated events.  Try to focus on "Y2K the event" as opposed to its larger impact (an analogy would be to focus on the boxer's punch as opposed to how his opponent is impacted by the punch, e.g., there's a big difference in being punched by Mike Tyson than by Pee Wee Herman).  We'd like two "headlines" from each participant (one "leading edge" and one "postmortem," and feel free to bring any pre-written notes--this is not a test!--and enter in as many headlines as you like).  Once you've entered your first two, we'd like you to view some of the entries others have made and, if you so choose, offer commentary via your laptop.  Once the 20-minute GroupSystems session has ended, we'll open up the floor to discussion for the remaining 40 minutes of the segment.  Dr. Barnett will moderate, and discussion will largely be driven by what all of you write and read.  We'll encourage you both to speak out and to offer us any further written comments via your GroupSystems notepad as the discussion unfolds.

NOTE: The examples of "headlines" provided here and elsewhere all center on a single theme in order to demonstrate the differences between the segments.  You can, if you want, offer up different themes for each segment (as well as more than one theme for each segment), and you probably will, as not every theme will be plausible in each instance.

Example of Leading Edge Headline for Y2K as discrete and periodic events

• "Markets Across the World Experience Big Jump Following Y2K 'Non-Event' on Wall Street"  Dateline 1/4/00 London  Stock markets through-out Asia and Europe responded enthusiastically today to the fact that Wall Street made it through its first trading day of the new millennium without a serious hitch.  Gaining back most of the losses suffered over the past few weeks as Y2K "incidents" left many international investors jittery, foreign markets avoided--for today, at least--the "flight to quality" that many experts predicted would continue to depress local stock prices by engendering an international rush to the "safe haven" of U.S.-based blue chip stocks.

Example of Postmortem Headline/Y2K as discrete and periodic events

• "Lost in the Market Shuffle: So-Called Y2K Effect is Negligible Compared to 'Millennial Dip'"  Dateline 5/13/00 Tokyo  Japan's stock market completed its roller-coaster "millennial dip" last week by finally regain-ing all of the 34-percent drop that mysteriously ended its fledgling bull-market in the last quarter of 1999.  While the steep decline in prices on the eve of the millennium corresponded to past historical experience (going all the way back to the Dutch stock market of 1599), many Japa-nese experts were at a loss to explain how "this decimalization of history" wreaked so much immediate impact on a non-Christian society.

10:00 am Break

10:15 am
"Headlines in History"/Discussion Segment II: Thinking about Y2K as a sustained and widespread event that envelopes countries on or about 1 January 2000.
INSTRUCTIONS:  Same as previous segment, except the headlines now refer to elements of a widespread and enduring Y2K phenomenon rather than isolated and sporadic events.

Example of Leading Edge Headline/Y2K as widespread and sustained event

• "Time Out!  Screams Wall Street: Overnight Computer Glitches Abroad Spook Stock Exchange"  Dateline 1/3/00 London  The New York Stock Exchange took the safe and careful route today by not tempting fate and risking a computer-induced breakdown caused by the Year 2000 Problem.  Although Wall Street's many recent tests convinced many insiders that the system would hold up just fine, the widespread failures experienced overnight by Asian and European markets pushed NYSE executives to the unprecedented step of putting off the market's opening bell of the new millennium for "an unspecified time."

Example of Postmortem Headline/Y2K as widespread and sustained event

• "Nikkei Concludes First Full Day of Trading For Year"  Dateline 2/7/00 Tokyo  Japan's stock market completed its first full day of trading for the year-a full five weeks after its computer systems were widely disabled by the Y2K computer bug.  After months of predicting that the Year 2000 Problem was a "big nothing" that wouldn't affect their robust network systems, Japanese market executives and government regulators were continuing to issue public apologies, often just before announcing their resignations and--in one gruesome example--committing suicide using a traditional sword on national television.

11:15 am
"Top-Ten List of Isolators and Cascaders"/Discussion Segment III: Identifying "signposts" or "canaries in the coal mine" that tell us when a country is moving from one of the two extremes to the other (i.e., Y2K as series of dis-crete events or as a widespread event)
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll begin with a 10-minute GroupSystems session where all participants will be asked to input at least two such "signposts" to a master list, trying not to repeat those already entered (although some of this is unavoidable, so try to come armed with more than the minimum two entries).  These "signposts" should refer to some measurable or defining characteristic of a society, network, economy, or government activity that, if it moves either "up" or "down," signifies the movement of the Y2K experience toward one of the two extremes explored previously.  By "isolators," we mean developments that signify Y2K events are "dead-ending," or not leading to follow-on failures or reactions.  By "cascaders," we mean developments that signify Y2K events are "ballooning," or triggering follow-on failures or reactions.  Once the 10-minute inputting session is complete, we'll open up the floor to 40 minutes of discussion of the generated list.  We'll reserve the final ten minutes of the hour for a quick vote where everyone will be asked to pick his or her top five in terms of perceived importance.

Example of Y2K "Isolators" and "Cascaders"

• Internet chat rooms--Rumors will rule the last months of 1999 and the first few weeks of 2000.  If the tone is joke-filled and mocking, we'll know it's all a bunch of sound and fury signifying nothing, but if these rooms turn into swap meets for horror stories, then watch out!  The rooms most important to watch are those with high volumes of international participation.  How foreign nationals perceive things are going in America may be crucial.

12:15 pm
Buffet-style lunch will be served in the DSC.  During the meal, Prof. Hank Kamradt will give a short presentation on the subject of system vulnerability and robustness, using the example of ships that have suffered "catastrophic" damage over the course of the 20th century.

1:00 pm
"Headlines in History"/Discussion Segment IV: Thinking about "systems" as being vulnerable, with "systems" referring to any and all technical and non-technical sectors of society, government, the economy, and infrastructure (e.g., everything from rumor-driven panics to weaknesses in network firewall technology).
INSTRUCTIONS:  Same as the first two morning segments, with the key difference being that instead of focusing on "Y2K the event" here (i.e., the "What?" question), we'd like you to focus on "Y2K the impact" (i.e., the "So what?" question) by highlighting issues that speak to the concept that "systems are vulnerable" (e.g., the basic notion that humanity's growing dependence on computers leaves us susceptible to significant difficulties in the event of their systemic failure).  So the focus should be on systems' weaknesses being uncovered or overwhelmed by Y2K's unfolding--meaning systems not just populated by silicon-based units, but carbon-based ones as well.  Such weaknesses may well include "bad" or maladaptive responses to Y2K's unfolding.  It is especially here that we want to hear about any "fellow travelers" to the Y2K event, such as millennialism.  What we're looking to measure here are loss of capabilities within systems (again, broadly defined) due to Y2K.  Going back to our boxing analogy, one can punch a Mike Tyson and see very little loss of capability, whereas the same punch would likely send a PeeWee Herman into complete systemic collapse.

Example of Leading Edge Headline/systems as vulnerable

• "Euro Plunges as Yanks Dump 'Infected' Money"  Dateline 1/3/00 London  Blaming the conversion software used in calculating the Euro for crashing their networks on the first day of trading in the new year, Wall Street currency operators shut down trading of Euros yesterday, starting a global stampede out of the one-year-old currency.  Although the flight from the Euro has little basis in economic reality, spokesmen for the European Union are already warning the world markets' against making the Euro a "scapegoat" for computer glitches caused by the Y2K Problem.

Example of Postmortem Headline/systems as vulnerable

• "The Lost Billions: Russian Government Still Investigating 'Theft of the Millennium'"  Dateline 4/09/05 Moscow  Still smarting from the serious loss of investor confidence following it's fifth-straight year of a depressed market, Russian stock market officials vowed today to "never give up" in their search for cyber-criminals that made off with an esti-mated $11 billion from banking and  business accounts in the first few weeks of 2000.  While suspects have never been identified, Russian right-wing parliamentarians have maintained a long-term "whispering campaign" against India, insinuating that Indian nationals involved in Y2K remediation efforts were part of a "New Dehli plot" to bankrupt the Russian Federation under the cover of the Year 2000 Problem.

2:00 pm
"Headlines in History"/Discussion Segment V: Thinking about "systems" as being robust, with "systems" referring to any and all technical and non-technical sectors of society, government, the economy, and infrastructure.
INSTRUCTIONS:  Same as the previous segment, with the key difference being that here we want to hear about systems' strengths, as well as positive or adaptive responses to Y2K's unfolding (i.e., societies, economies, govern-ments, networks "rising up to the challenge").

Example of Leading Edge Headline/systems as robust

• "My Kingdom for a Calculator!  It's Back to the Future for London Traders as Y2K Hits"  Dateline 1/10/00 London  Always one for tradition, London traders have spent the last week "traveling back in time" about 20 years, according to many observers.  As the Millennium Bug brought down network after network last week, traders throughout London's markets cracked out battery-powered calculators, dusty slide rules, and even an antique abacus or two.  While markets slowed to a crawl on Monday of last week, by Friday volume was back up to 45 percent of normal, with predictions that full-volume trading would reappear by month's end.  As if on holiday, the markets have languished at the same level throughout this unprecedented slowdown.

Example of Postmortem Headline/systems as robust

• "With Y2K 'Monster' Back in Closet, It's Time to Get Back on 'The Bull!'"Dateline 6/7/00 Rome  Now that the Millennial Mania has passed and fears of a Y2K-induced global meltdown have disappeared (admit it, we all got tired of that Yardeni fellow yapping away night after night on the telly!), market experts around the world tell me to expect a renewed international bull run for the rest of the year.  And although I'd enjoy nothing more than skewering those Teutonic "gloom-and-doomers" for a few more rounds, smart investors need to turn their attention elsewhere.  This newsletter's topic?  High-tech genetic revolutionaries determined to stretch your life way past 100!  And guess what?  Red wine and pasta are "in!"  Question is, will your retirement funds last long enough?  Or do you need to pump up your risk ratio?  Think about it now or miss out later

3:00 pm
Break

3:15 pm
"Top-Ten List of Work-Arounds and Fatal Errors"/Discussion Segment VI: Identifying "signposts" or "canaries in the coal mine" that tell us when a society is moving from one of the two extremes to the other (i.e., "systems" as robust or "systems" as vulnerable)
INSTRUCTIONS:  Same as segment III, with the key difference being the focus on Y2K's broader consequences--both technical and non-technical, both rational and irrational, and both intended and unintended.

Example of System "Work Arounds" and "Fatal Errors"
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Scheduled "Y2K vacations" or bans on leaves--Many people will tap leave balances and stay at home in early January due to one of two rationales: either they're really scared about things falling apart, or they just want to sit out any craziness "on the streets" or any extra workload at the office created by others "sitting out" Y2K.  If this is a widespread phenomenon, it could be filed under "self-fulfilling prophecies," sort of like the auto manufacturing plant in northern Wisconsin that suffers "green and gold flu" every Monday night shift that the Green Bay Packers play on TV (most take off to watch the game, but still more take off to avoid having to do extra work caused by the slacker fans).

4:00 pm
Day One "Hot Wash" Segment VII: Survey of day's key lessons, plus open discussion of any loose ends from previous discussions.
INSTRUCTIONS: Segment will begin with 15-minute GroupSystems session where we'll ask participants the following open-ended questions:  (1) What was the most surprising thing you heard today?  (2) What was the most significant thing you heard today?  and (3) What was the most disturbing thing you heard today?  We'll then follow up with open discussion for the rest of the hour.

5:00 pm
Last Call for Comments/Segment VIII: Around-the-table for last comments by all participants.
INSTRUCTIONS:  Be prepared to offer no more than two minutes of summing-up commentary from your own particular perspective.

6:00 pm
Adjournment no later than . . ..
 
 

Friday workshop sessions (4 December)

7:30 am
Continental breakfast at the DSC.

8:00 am
Presentation by Dr. Tom Barnett summing up the previous day's inputs.
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll apply what we heard on Thursday to our scenario-building model.  This model is based on an x-y axis that arrays the two big questions we explored on Thursday (see chart below):  the "What?" ques-tion, or "What is the Y2K event?"; and the "So what?" question, or "How significant is Y2K's ultimate impact?"  The scenarios we'll debate today cor-respond to the four quadrants created by this axis.   This summing-up session will allow us to elicit your feedback regarding our interpretations of the previous day's discussions.

8:45 am
The "Name Game"/Discussion Segment I: Exploring the best-case scenario in which Y2K events are discrete/periodic and systems are robust.
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll begin this segment with a 10-minute GroupSystems session during which we'll ask you to propose an overarching name for this scenario.  It can be a catch phrase, a movie title or line, a book title or line, etc.  We'll ask that you offer some explanatory text in addition to your name, so we can be sure we're picking up all the nuances of your choice.  You can offer as many proposals as you like.  Ideally, these ideas will "come to you" sometime between 6pm on Thursday and 9am on Friday and thus reflect the synergy of Thursday's discussions.  Following the 10-minute input session, we'll open the floor to 40 minutes of discussion, when we'll ask people to explain their choices (sorry, anonymity won't work so well here) and let the debate ensue.  We'll close out the segment with a 10-minute GroupSystems voting session to pick a "winner" ("And the Y2K goes to . . . ").  No acceptance speeches will be allowed!

Example of scenario name for quadrant combining Y2K as discrete/periodic and systems are robust

• Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing!  All the Y2K hype was a lot of noise and activity that never amounted to anything but a handful of millennial nutcases running naked in the mountains looking for comets to ride away on to Planet Paranoia.

9:45 am
Break

10:00 am
The "Name Game"/Discussion Segment II: Exploring the next-best case scenario in which the Y2K event is sustained and widespread, but systems are robust.
INSTRUCTIONS:  Same as the previous segment.

Example of scenario name for quadrant combining Y2K as widespread/sustained and systems are robust

• Cyber Nor'Easter  Like the legendary winter storms off the Atlantic Ocean that occasionally rock New England, Y2K was a "wicked bad" onslaught that made January a miserable month for most of the planet.  And yet, we're a hardy band, we humans, and so we simply waited it out, carved a point or two off the global GDP for the year, and eventually dug our way out from all the accumulated network failures.

11:00 am
The "Name Game"/Discussion Segment III: Exploring the next-worst case scenario in which Y2K events are discrete and periodic, but systems are vulnerable.
INSTRUCTIONS:  Same as the previous segment.

Example of scenario name for quadrant combining Y2K as discrete/periodic and systems are vulnerable

• [from a David Isenberg Internet newsletter--see suggested web sites in Section IV] Whiff of Smoke  Like a crowd in a theater when someone catches a whiff of smoke and screams out "Fire!" Y2K will trigger all sorts of social panic attacks where popular responses are grossly out of proportion to the threat at hand, and as such, many are "trampled to death" in the ensuing mayhem.

12:00 pm
Lunch is served (sandwiches, etc.) at the DSC

12:30 pm
The "Name Game"/Discussion Segment IV: Exploring the worst-case scenario in which the Y2K event is sustained/widespread and systems are vulnerable.
INSTRUCTIONS:  Same as the previous segment.

Example of scenario name for quadrant combining Y2K as widespread/sustained and systems are vulnerable

• It's the End of the World As We Know It  Nature is going to jump up and teach us a lesson for all our dependency on computers.  Many "believers" will see this as God's version of a 21st-century Great Flood designed to weed out all the "sinners."  Others will recognize this "man-self-destructs-through-technology" scenario from science fiction (like James Cameron's Terminator movies, or Mel Gibson's Mad Max trilogy).  However you want to describe it, humanity enjoys only the thinnest veneer of civilization--strip it away suddenly and we'll all revert to pre-social animals faster than most comfortable Americans can imagine.

1:30 pm
"You Make the Call"/Discussion Segment V: Your chance to anonymously tell us what you think will really happen with Y2K and the millennial event.
INSTRUCTIONS:  None really, as the format of your input is entirely up to you.  As with the "Name Game," we suggest that you not pre-decide your in-put here (although all of you will come with some pre-conceived notions), but rather give us your spontaneous call on the basis of the workshop discussions, in addition to any expertise you bring along with you.

2:30 pm
Last Call for Comments/Segment VIII: Around-the-table for last comments by all participants.
INSTRUCTIONS:  We'll need to keep final comments quite brief this last time to be able to get everyone out the door by 3pm, so plan on about a minute per person.

3:00 pm
Adjournment no later than . . ..

 Short bios of participants and key project team members

Workshop Participants

Wayne D. Bennett
Mr. Bennett is a partner in the Entrepreneurial Services Group at the law firm of Bingham Dana LLP (Boston office) and he chairs the firm's Commercial Technology Practice Area.  His practice is concen-trated in the areas of commercial technology, licensing, distribution, outsourcing, and related intellectual property and corporate matters.  Mr. Bennett's Y2K clients include BankBoston, USTrust, CIT, Boston Scientific, Boston Stock Exchange, and several manufacturers and high-tech companies.  A prolific author on information technology, he frequently lectures on related legal topics.  He is a graduate of Syracuse University and Georgetown University Law Center.

Suzanne Bergman
Ms. Bergman, a Boeing Senior Project Engineer, is a member of the System of Systems team in the Phan-tom Works Division of Boeing.  As a member of this team, she primarily explores the military capability requirements suggested by various alternative futures.  Over the course of her professional career, Ms. Bergman's operations analysis experience has focused on the analysis of the requirements for, and the effectiveness of, advanced military systems.  The analytical techniques she's employed include both computer-based simulations and decision-analysis techniques (e.g., the application of Strategy-to-Task to technology plans and JSF requirements).  She has a BA in Computer Science.

Robert Bosnak
A native of the Netherlands, Dr. Bosnak currently conducts a private practice as a psychoanalyst in Cambridge, Mass. He has authored a number of books and articles on dreams and apocalyptic visions, and has organized three international conferences on the theme of apocalyptic expectations and politics in Newport and Moscow.  As Director of Programs at The Newport Institute, Dr. Bosnak has convened several work-shops on the theme of xenophobia around the turn of the millenium.  He has a JD in Law and Criminology from the University of Leiden, Netherlands, as well as a diploma in Analytical Psychology from the C.G. Jung Institute of Zurich.

Charles Cameron
Mr. Cameron is a Fellow at The Arlington Institute in Arlington, Virginia.

Donald Clark
Mr. Clark is currently on the staff of I2 Technologies, a California-based consulting firm that specializes in advising maritime shipping companies on how best to manage the flow of their cargo data.  At I2 Technologies, he oversees large computerization projects of maritime databases.  A recognized expert on civil maritime trade, Mr. Clark previously served as an executive with American Pacific Lines, an industry leader.  He is a graduate of the California Maritime Academy and has two advanced degrees: from Golden Gate University  in Financial Management; and from Northwestern University in Logistics and Transportation.

George Esper
While The Associated Press observes its 150th anniversary this year, Special Correspondent George Esper marks his 40th year with the wire service. During that time he has covered America's last two major wars--Vietnam and Iraq--as well as U.S. peacekeeping missions in Somalia and Bosnia.  He remained in Viet-nam to report the fall of Saigon and the evacuation of the U.S. Embassy during the Communist takeover in April 1975.  Five weeks after the takeover, he was expelled and the AP Bureau was closed down.  But nearly 20 years later, in October 1993, Mr. Esper returned to Saigon to reopen the AP Bureau.  He currently travels the world over from his base in Boston.

Adm. William Flanagan, U.S. Navy (ret.)
"Bud" Flanagan is a Senior Managing Director at Cantor Fitzgerald LP, the world's largest broker of U.S. Government securities, Eurobonds, and sovereign debt.  The admiral's portfolio focuses on emerging markets, particularly those brought about by government deregulation and privatization.  He served in the U.S. Navy for 29 years, his final position being Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Atlantic Fleet from 1994-96, with geographic responsibilities for the entire Western Hemisphere and all of West Europe.  Adm. Flanagan is a graduate of the Massachusetts Maritime Academy, and holds a BS in Maritime Transport and an MA in Political Science from American University.

Martin J. Gerra, Jr.
Since 1992, Mr. Gerra has served as Adjunct Professor at the College of Notre Dame of Maryland, where he teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in Economics and Management.  He has also held academic positions at North Carolina State University, Johns Hopkins University, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Graduate School.  While teaching, Mr. Gerra has consulted for private industry, U.S. and foreign government agencies, and industry groups.  Mr. Gerra retired from the IBM Corporation in 1998 after 25 years of service.  His last position was as Manager of International Economics.  He has an MA in Economics from the Catholic University of America.

Philip Ginsberg
Dr. Ginsberg is a Senior Vice President at Cantor Fitzgerald, the world's largest broker of U.S. Government securities, Eurobonds, and sovereign debt.  He is also Vice President of the Cantor Fitzgerald Foundation and Director of Cantor Fitzgerald International.  Prior to this, Dr. Ginsburg served as a consultant to both industry and government, and held academic postings at the University of Washington, Rutgers University, and Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.  He also founded the Llorex Corporation, which specialized in financial information products.  He has a BA in Mathematics from Cornell University, and an MA and PhD in Economics from Purdue University.

Norm Green
Mr. Green is currently the Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Science and Technology on the National Intelligence Council.  He served as an active duty Naval Intelligence officer for 13 years before joining the Central Intelligence Agency in 1987.  Duty within the CIA has included tours within the Counterintelligence Center, the Office of Scientific and Weapons Research, the Nonproliferation Center and a rotation to the White House as a member of the Presidents Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) staff.  Mr. Green remains in the Naval Intelligence Reserves, where he currently serves as a Captain USNR.

Kent M. Harrington
Mr. Harrington is President and Managing Director of the Harrington Group, LLC, based in Washington DC.  His practice areas include information collection and analysis, government relations in East Asia and Washington, and assessments of international business trends.  Mr. Harrington served four Directors of Central Intelligence as the National Intelligence Office for East Asia, and likewise served as the CIA's Director of Public Affairs.  He has published two novels: The Gift of a Falcon (1988) and A Brother to Dragons (1993).  He holds a BA from Duke University and an MA in International Relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Michael B. Harrington
Dr. Harrington currently serves as Principal Information Technology Economist at the Economic and Decision Analysis Center of The MITRE Corporation's Washington C3 Center.  Dr. Harrington has played a principal technical and/or managerial role in research projects conducted for a variety of federal agencies.  At this time, Dr. Harrington leads a project that involves examining the efforts in key countries and infrastructural sectors to carry out Y2K remediation programs, assessing the probable impact on US interests of possible failures in these efforts.  He has an MS (Econometrics) and PhD. (Systems Analysis) in Public Management from the University of California at Irvine.

Ethan B. Kapstein
Dr. Kapstein is Stassen Professor of International Peace at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Af-fairs and the Department of Political Science at the University of Minnesota.  Previously he served as Vice President and Director of Studies at the Council of Foreign Relations and Principal Administrator for Russia at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris.  His major fields of study include international economic relations, international security, and social policy.  Prof. Kapstein has written or edited eight books and many articles in professional journals.  His current research focuses on international economic justice.

Paul B. Kourtz
Mr. Kourtz is currently a Senior Analyst specializing in telecommunications technologies and the Year 2000 Problem for the Central Intelligence Agency's Office of Transnational Issues.  His career in intelligence began over 30 years ago when he went to work for the CIA's Technical Services Division.  During his career, Mr. Kourtz has been involved in the design and deployment of technical collection systems, and the analysis of naval and space weapons systems, electronic warfare systems, dual-use technologies, and Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I).  He has also served as the CIA representative to the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization.

Richard A. Landes
Prof. Landes holds a position in the Department of History at Boston University, and has served as Director of the Center for Millennial Studies since he founded it in 1996.  He has written widely on the subject of medieval history, millennial and apocalyptic movements, and the coming millennial event.  At the Center for Millennial Studies, he has organized and led a number of conferences on the Year 2000, including one of the first on Y2K.  Dr. Landes has also made a number of national media appearances related to these subjects.  He has a BA in Social Studies from Harvard University, a diploma from the Ecole Normale Superieure, and an MA and PhD in History from Princeton University.

Don G. Linford
Mr. Linford currently serves as Vice President and Regional Network Manager of Global Investor Services for Chase Manhattan Bank.  In this capacity, he leads a team whose primary functions are the management of the global custody network in the Western Hemisphere.  His major skill sets include risk management, legal and compliance issues, regulatory initiatives, and client marketing and support.   Mr. Linford has over 15 years of international business experience and has traveled extensively throughout Latin America, living there for two years.  He has a BA in Political Science from the University of Utah and an MBA from Northeastern University.

Frank C. Mahncke
Mr. Mahncke is the Chief Analyst for the Strategic and Technology Initiatives Directorate of the Joint Warfare Assessment Center of the U.S. Department of Defense.  In this capacity, he has developed programs in campaign analyses, methodology research and development, and emerging defense issues.  In previous government service, Mr. Mahncke served as Science Advisor to the Commander of the Atlantic Fleet and Head of the Systems Analysis Branch of the Naval Surface Warfare Center.  He has a BA in Mathematics from Bowdoin College, an MPA in Operations Research from American University, and a graduate degree from the U.S. Naval War College.

Kenneth Bruce Malpass
Mr. Malpass is currently a PhD Candidate in the Department of Engineering-Economic Systems and Op-erations Research at Stanford University.  His dissertation is on the impact of telecommunications on organizational structure and decision making.  Mr. Malpass has 20 years of experience in high-technology business consulting, with an emphasis on software and database technology.  His research interests include dynamic system surprises, self-fulfilling prophecies, financial confidence, cascading system failure and recovery, and rumors.  He has a BA in Economics and an MA in Public Administration from the University of Colorado, and a JD from the University of Denver.

Eugene Miasnikov
Dr. Miasnikov currently serves as Researcher at the Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology.  He previously held the position of Senior Research Associate at the Scientific Center "OPTEX" in Moscow.  Dr. Miasnikov is the author of numerous publications on the problems of strategic arms reductions, strategic stability, and the current and future status of Russian strategic sea-based forces.  He has a PhD in Physics (Oceanography) from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, and conducted post-graduate research at M.I.T.'s Security Studies Program on anti-submarine warfare.

J. Kathy Parker
Dr. Parker specializes in social ecology, strategic planning, and information technology culture in developing country settings.  A long-time consultant to the U.S. Agency for International Development, she has more than two decades of field experience in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as well as significant recent experience in Eastern Europe and Russia.  Dr. Parker has published widely on development issues, and has held academic postings at a number of universities.  She has a BA in Sociology and History from Trinity University, an MS in Park Administration from Texas Tech University, and an MA and PhD in Forestry and Environmental Studies from Yale University.

Jeffrey Scannell
Mr. Scannell currently serves as Software Engineering Consultant to State Street Global Advisors of Boston.  In this capacity, he has performed analysis of, and renovations to, the company's Global Confirmation System to ensure Y2K compliance.  Mr. Scannell has 12 years of professional software development expe-rience in the areas of real-time Unix systems, telecommunications, robotics, and financial services.  As a consultant to Boston Technology, he recently traveled to Japan to provide technical support and install software for Nippon Telephone and Telegraph.   He has a BS in Systems Science from Providence College, Providence, RI.

Nicholas Zvegintzov
Mr. Zvegintzov is President of the Software Management Network, a publishing, consulting, and teaching group that he founded in 1979.  He is an internationally known expert on the management of existing software systems, including testing, documentation, adaptation, functional modification, and reengineering. He has authored numerous publications in his field, and recently has written on, and been widely quoted concerning, the Y2K problem.  He has a BA and MA from Oxford University in Experimental Psychology and Philosophy, respectively, and has conducted academic research at the University of California at Berkeley and Carnegie-Mellon University.
 

Year 2000 Internat'l Security Dimension Project Members

Thomas P.M. Barnett
Dr. Barnett is Professor and Senior Strategic Researcher at the Decision Support Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies.  He currently directs the Year 2000 International Security Dimension Project.  Prior to joining the College, he served as Project Director for The CNA Corporation of Alexandria, Virginia, where he managed the U.S. Agency for International Development account.  His most recent work, "The Seven Deadly Sins of Network-Centric Warfare," will appear in an upcoming issue of the U.S. Naval Institute's Proceedings.  He has a BA in Russian Literature from the University of Wisconsin, and an MA in Eurasian Studies and a PhD in Government from Harvard University.

Henry D. Kamradt
Mr. Kamradt serves as Professor and Senior Strategic Researcher at the Decision Support Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies.  He is currently directing and participating in a number of projects concerning the future of network-centric warfare, to include the subject areas of sensor architecture and technological surprises.  Prof. Kamradt's areas of expertise include anti-submarine and surface warfare, as well as naval intelligence.  Prior to joining the College, he worked as a Senior Analyst for Sonalysts, Inc., and later founded and directed his own consulting firm.  Prof. Kamradt also served in the U.S. Navy from 1977 through 1984.  He has a BA from Duke University.

Lawrence E. Modisett
Dr. Modisett is Director of the Decision Support Department of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies.  In this capacity he oversees and participates in a wide variety of national security studies.  Dr. Modisett's fields of expertise include international affairs, national security issues, and Russia and Eastern Europe.  His prior government service includes a 19-year career as Analyst and Manager at the Central Intelligence Agency, and a three-year stint in the U.S. Information Agency as a member of the Foreign Service.  He has a BA in English from Ohio Wesleyan University, and an MS in Foreign Service and a PhD in History from Georgetown University.

Breakdown of participants by key subject area

Web sites you may want to check out before coming

•  U.S. Naval War College

• Center for Millennial Studies

• Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network

• Washington DC Year 2000 Group

• World Bank's Year 2000 links page

• The Mitre Corporation's Y2K page

• Washington State's Y2K links page

• The New York Times's Millennium Bug index page

• David Isenberg's web site