Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Front of Graceland, Memphis TN

Living room

TV room in basement

Kit

Pool room basement

"Jungle room"/makeshift recording room

1957 Gold lame "Ed Sullivan" suit

68 comeback special leather suit

Racquetball room, now w exhibits

Aloha suits

Grave site

History quiz: Memphis, 1968.

The actual spot

Wider angle

Museum includes across-the-street preservation of boarding house bathroom from which Ray fired his rifle.

Hornet's Nest, Shiloh TN

Infamous Sunken Road where Union forces hold off Johnston's troops on 4/6/62, setting up Grant's big win (with Buell's just-arrived forces) on 7 April.

The Bloody Pond at which wounded soldiers sought refuge.

Sunken Road, looking north from the Bloody Pond.

More Americans die at Shiloh than died cumulatively during the wars of Independence, 1812 and Mexico.

MN artillery monument

Here's the cover art. Looking forward to publication this February.

ARTICLE: Not So Fast, Amigas y Amigos, by Colonel Robert Killebrew, Small Wars Journal, July 2, 2009

A more comprehensive condemnation of the so publicly aggrieved Zelaya.

Not all military coups are necessarily bad.

INTERNATIONAL: "Allotting of Iraqi Oil Rights May Stoke Hostility in Disputed Kirkuk," by Timothy Williams and Suadad Al-Salhy, New York Times, 29 May 2009.

A little payback from Maliki to the Kurds for their previous deals with Western oil firms in advance of the always-almost-here national oil law: he's opening Kirkuk's huge reserves to outside deals. Kirkuk is roughly one-sixth (estimated) of Iraq's overall supplies, but frankly, a lot of Iraq is still to be explored.

No matter, it's a lot of oil, although it comes from a major field past its peak and badly mismanaged in the past.

The fear from Baghdad: if Kirkuk were to go to the Kurds, would they have enough resources to then make a bid for actual independence?

BUSINESS DAY: "China's Mileage Mandate: Proposed Rules Said to Be Even Stricter Than in the U.S.," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 28 May 2009.

Smaller cars that sip fuel are now subject to a one percent sales tax in China, but gas guzzling trucks and SUVs get a 40% tax. Guess which markets in China the U.S. firms dominate?

China was self-sufficient on oil as late as 1995. It now imports 60 percent, just like the U.S. The bulk comes from unstable regions and the lanes between those regions and China are dominated by the U.S. Navy.

Imagine if the situation were reversed.

Experts say that American and European firms will simply adjust, because the market is too crucial to their futures.

This is how the New Core sets the new rules on transportation.

INTERNATIONAL: "Buying farmland abroad: Outsourcing's third wave; Rich food importers are acquiring vast tracts of poor countries' farmland. Is this beneficial foreign investment or neocolonialism?" The Economist, 23 May 2009.

EDITORIAL: "Land deals in Africa and Asia: Cornering foreign fields; The Chinese and Arabs are buying poor countries' farms on a colossal scale. Be wary of the results," The Economist, 23 May 2009.

This is the one that triggered the recent column, which uses material that I currently brief.

Great map on target countries: all Gap except obvious producers from New Core (Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, China (Goldman Sachs investment in poultry and pigs) and Brazil. Lots of Arab money going into Africa, along with Chinese.

The irony: Saudi Arabia grows and removes from Ethiopia, while the international aid community sends in roughly the same amount--dollar-wise.

Land grab or tech transfer? Depends on the perspective.

Not a new concept, says the piece. Remember "banana republics"?

The difference now is the huge scale, like Egypt, Korea and UAE buying up huge chunks of Sudan--roughly one-fifth of the Arab world's so-called breadbasket.

Then there's China's sending farmers to work those lands. One estimate says 1m alone in Chinese farm laborers in Africa now.

What has been bought up since 2006 is roughly the equivalent of France's entire farmland, totally in the range of $30B, or roughly 10 times emergency ag aid to developing countries recently announced by the World Bank.

The third wave argument says manufacturing in the 1980s, IT in the 1990s, and now food in the 00s.

Private land deals not new. The scope of government buying here is, with sellers being host governments who "nominally" own the land in many instances (that sounds nefarious, does it not?).

Water shortages are behind much of the land-grabbing, naturally. If you have the water and the land, you don't need to grab so much, which is why the Saudis lead the pack.

The danger here: poor countries are not really selling land but water rights--and damn cheaply.

So you have Sudan letting investors remove 70% of the crop, even though Sudan is the biggest food aid recipient in the world.

Again, the big target is Africa, but global climate change says Africa will be a far harder place to grow food in the future, even with genetic improvements.

The scope of deals is so large, there are sometimes immediate political repercussions: Madagascar's president had planned to sell roughly half the island's arable land to a Korean concern (Daewoo Logistics), but the deal led to the collapse of his government.

The proposed improvement: a code of conduct that commits investors to improve local ag--very Development-in-a-Box™ in philosophy.

waveman850 wrote in to say:

The Chief of Staff of the Army, General Casey, did a speech the other day at the Atlantic Council:

In this speech, (way down at the paragraph that starts out: The other thing about demographics is that --), General Casey made specific note that:

"The middle classes of China and India are already larger than the population of the
United States. . . ."

So it appears that the Army has their eyes somewhat on this also.

Thought you and Tom might be interested.

INTERNATIONAL: "South Koreans Express Fatigue With a Recalcitrant North," by Martin Fackler, New York Times, 28 May 2009.

A South Korea that moves past the hypocrisy of the "sunshine policy" regarding the DPRK is most welcome. Since the engagement has been mostly about renting Nork slave labor at cool prices, all the while muttering under their breath about not wanting to get stuck with a big-ass bill, it's great to see South Koreans starting to get tired of the failed policies of the past/present.

Tom and I continue to refine our method of publishing. By and large, he sends me posts and I dole them out based on timeliness and total volume.

All that to say, I missed publishing a few posts recently (especially regarding Iran) that I want in the record but would like silly running across the front page. They're OBE.

So, I'm 'past publishing' a few of these posts for the record, though you won't notice them. (If you REALLY want to read them, go back and scan the June archive for stuff you missed.)

The major exception to this is those of you who read Tom's weblog in a feed reader. I'm putting this disclaimer out so you won't wonder why you're getting a bunch of 'old' posts :-)

The cold, post-Cold War truth about Putin's -- er, Medvedev's Moscow? It doesn't matter as much it used to. But if Obama's got his wits about him next week, he'll pretend like it does.

Continuing reading this week's World War Room column for Esquire.com.

NATIONAL WEEKLY EDITION: "Countering the Military's Latest Mantra: It's possible that the 'counterinsurgency' isn't responsible for progress in Iraq," buy Celeste Ward, Washington Post, 25-31 May 2009.

An uninspired op-ed that "breaks" the wisdom that's become so conventional as to be stale: Maybe the surge wasn't just about better counterinsurgency ops?!?!?!

A long-time (20 months constitutes a long time in my book) political adviser to Gen. Chiarelli, Ward says it wasn't really an insurgency so you can't credit COIN.

Her argument is akin to the "hybrid war" perspective: look closely enough and it's a cats-and-dogs world, ranging from low-tech this to high-tech that and it's all impossible to categorize so we must prepare for everything (hmmm, helpful, so let me now begin to prepare for all contingencies equally and I will call that a strategy). And such a "chaotic scrum" doesn't meet the official definition of a group dedicated to overthrowing the existing government (Ah, always good to review the official rule book for technical definitions).

Hence, a closer look at why the violence went down in Iraq says there were multiple reasons, and citing our change in tactics as the be-all answer isn't enough. Plus, there were officers all along in various places who engaged in solid rebuilding efforts--however isolated.

So now COIN is derided as the proverbial hammer searching the entire world for nails. It must, therefore, be doctrinaire in the extreme, I guess, and unable to adapt itself whatsoever to local conditions.

Alrighty then!

Thus, we are told that we have to adapt ourselves to the new complexities of Afghanistan, so dubbing McChrystal the new "Petraeus of Afghanistan" isn't enough!

Whew!

That was a close one!

Glad to have that mess all cleared up. I really thought a one-size-fits-all COIN manual would take care of the entire world--from now til the end of time.

Imagine my disappointment.

But I guess it had to be said.

Here's my essential beef with the piece (besides all the previous snark): just when we start to learn, we now get people complaining that we're learning too much too fast, thus the strawman-renderings of COIN have begun.

NATIONAL WEEKLY EDITION: "On Rough Seas: A U.S. program to train regional navies aims to promote stability off a volatile coast," by Karin Brulliard, Washington Post, 25-31 May 2009.

This is the stuff my Enterra colleague Harry Ulrich (USN, Admiral, retired) started while he was in Naples, "owning" most of Africa for European Command.

Great stuff and the right way to prove our intentions with Africa Command--namely, local capacity building.

ARTICLE: After Outcry, China Delays Requirement for Web-Filtering Software, By MICHAEL WINES, New York Times, June 30, 2009

China yields some on the Green Dam--for now.

ARTICLE: Key in Afghanistan: Economy, Not Military, By Bob Woodward, Washington Post, July 1, 2009

This is why we're getting such great traction with Combatant Commands on Development-in-a-Box™.

Jobs aren't just the exit strategy, they pave the path to victory--no matter who provides them.

OP-ED: How to Stop North Korea's Weapons Proliferation, By GORDON G. CHANG, Wall Street Journal, JULY 1, 2009

I like this logic and would like to see it pursued.

Either we ratchet up or we are backing down to a known repeat offender.

(Thanks: Michael S. Smith II)

ASIA: "Taiwan's opposition: Street life: The opposition barks for want of bite," The Economist, 23 May 2009.

Ma Ying-jeou and the KMT are proceeding in their efforts to bring Taiwan closer to the mainland, primarily in commercial terms.

Past word was that the current economic downturn was sapping the KMT's popularity, to include the policy of economic tethering to China.

This is true. The only problem with this analysis is that the main opposition party's popularity has not gone up in the meantime, while popular benefits are starting to appear, such as the improved stock market (responding to economic deals with China) and Taiwan's health minister getting a seat at the WHO for the first time in 38 years.

And so Taiwan's application for membership in an embryonic China-centric Asian union continues to be processed . . .

ARTICLE: Zelaya accused of drug ties, By FRANK BAJAK, Associated Press, June 30, 2009

Part of the backstory worth considering on Zelaya--a true sign of his Chavezmo.

MIDDLE EAST NEWS: Iran's Turmoil Opens Rift Among Shiites Across Mideast, By YAROSLAV TROFIMOV and GINA CHON, Wall Street Journal, JUNE 26, 2009

Key bite

With his open support of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei has departed from his traditional role as a neutral arbiter and consensus builder.

Like I said in the first Esquire piece on the election, the rigging showed the regime is neither "Islamic" in spirit nor a "republic" in function.

ARTICLE: Unease Mounts as U.S. Troops Leave Iraq's Cities, By GINA CHON, Wall Street Journal, JUNE 29, 2009

With my two nephews just back in, I naturally welcome this.

Yes, violence will go up inevitably, as regime opponents test the Iraqi Army, but that is a necessary step forward.

OP-ED: Our Decaying Nuclear Deterrent, By JON KYL and RICHARD PERLE, Wall Street Journal, JUNE 30, 2009

Gist: "The less credible the U.S. umbrella, the more likely other states are to seek weapons."

ARTICLE: New Honduras Leader Faces Backlash From Coup, By PAUL KIERNAN and DAVID LUHNOW, Wall Street Journal, JUNE 30, 2009

All official condemnations aside, no surprise that the Honduran military wasn't interested in going down the Chavez route. That sort of statism just doesn't work absent the "resource curse."

We shall see what comes next.

INTERNATIONAL: "Indonesia's TV Makeovers Now More Extreme Than Its Politics," by Norimitsu Onishi, New York Times, 23 May 2009.

Strange spiking of American-style reality TV shows in Indonesia. True, the form begins in Britain, but then it is given a weird American spin (like usual) that makes it seem--on a global basis--to be more our creation than Britain's (ah, to be a popularizer/bastardizer!).

The basic diagnosis: radical Islam scared the public and thus peaked recently, so now Indonesian pop culture pendulums are swinging back into a pro-American stance. It's sort of, "Wow! Is that what re-traditionalization is going to be all about? Man, let's rethink the whole modernization thing again and see what can be done--better--there."

There are 79 such shows now in Indonesia, a lot of which explore social tensions (e.g., put the rich person in a poor area--and not so much for laughs).

The truly fascinating bit: most Indonesians don't view these as American shows but as programs that explore universal values.

Ooh! That's exactly how we get ya!

Americanization isn't the future of globalization, but merely today's prism soon to be supplemented with several others.

FRONT PAGE: "Lose the Traffic. Keep That Times Square Grit." By Nicolai Ouroussoff, New York Times, 26 May 2009.

I travel a lot to many great global cities. Obviously, NYC is a premier venue in that sense.

But what it lacks that other great cities have is that signature open venue that defines its greatness.

And no, Central Park is not it. Central Park is the antithesis of that--by design. It's for New Yorkers.

The obvious place that defines NYC in an iconic sense is Times Square. For some reason, it's taken up to now for the city government to realize that it could do more to accentuate that signature venue by closing traffic there, but to me, it's an obvious move, because it's truly scary to navigate there because of the traffic and that really detracts from the experience, which is otherwise very cool.

Yes, Times Square has been cleaned up from its "Midnight Cowboy" roots and thank God. This move should improve it all the more.

THE FORUM: "The heavy burden of war, shouldered by the few," by DeWayne Wickham, USA Today, 26 May 2009.

Well meaning but completely backasswards logic.

I will not even engage on the lack of desire within the U.S. military to go back to a non-professional force.

Here's another take: going for the draft will only encourage all of America's worst tendencies toward going-it-alone.

ARTICLE: Nigerian Rebels Drive Up Oil Prices, By Steven Mufson, Washington Post, June 30, 2009

A point to Robb's global guerrillas thesis WRT weak states: nonstate actors driving up global oil prices.