David Hughes
Economic meltdown? Social anarchy? World War III? Go humbug yourself. Our foreign-policy analyst looks back on the 2009 fears that weren't, so we can all count our global blessings this holiday season.
Continue reading this week's World War Room column at Esquire.com.
LEADERS: "So much gained, so much to lose: Over the past 20 years economic freedom has outpaced political liberty. Neither should be taken for granted," The Economist, 7 November 2009.
Logic very much in my vein: economics has raced ahead of politics since the Wall fell, disappointing the democracy-now! types.
Does the slo-mo movement toward political pluralism negate the link between economic liberty and political liberty? No. Economics has made globalization nearly global, but politics remains stubbornly local. That gap defines danger as globalization moves forward, but this isn't 1914 by any stretch, because we no longer live in a globalization forced through colonialization.
For now, America remains the key guarantor of the system (which I argue is overwhelmingly of its modern creation), but the trick is, as the rest rise, the U.S. naturally loses relative power.
So the key remains: helping emerging pillars migrate toward more stable political systems, because authoritarian systems are too often tempted by the need for external villains, whereas democratic societies are usually satisfied with hating themselves (Big government! Big business! Big anything!).
But no question that much has been accomplished since the Wall fell: "the greatest leap forward in economic history," along with a host of "chaotic freedoms" both good and destabilizing in terms of sheer individual-level connectivity.
ARTICLE: Future Perfect, By Geneive Abdo, Newsweek , Nov 18, 2009
This fits nicely with the mullahs-have-lost-power scenario unfolding. Khamenei has so sold his soul to the Revolutionary Guard that the clergy are slowly coming to the conclusion that the faith would be better served detached from the government.
When this happens, a major portion of the clergy then switch over to the green movement and we get a Poland/Solidarnosc scenario that moves with great power.
(Thanks: jjennings)
POST: Gen. Casey to geeks: China's middle class worries me, By Thomas E. Ricks, The Best Defense, 11/18/2009
Wow, now we listen to army lifers for geopolitical and geo-economic analysis.
(Thanks: waveman850)
ARTICLE: Beijing's Air Is Cleaner, but Far From Clean, By MICHAEL WINES, New York Times, October 16, 2009
Good sign on China: efforts to curb local air pollution are helping.
Truth of any nation on the climb: local pollution skyrockets until per cap income gets to a level when the additional externalities finally get addressed. Thus, virtually every major city in the Old Core was far more polluted in the past than today.
Same will happen with China.
ARTICLE: Radiation Overdoses Point Up Dangers of CT Scans, By WALT BOGDANICH, New York Times, October 15, 2009
Once Emily navigated her way out of chemo and the CTs (catscans) proved her clean, we were surprised at how quickly the diagnostics were dialed back down.
At first, we suspected a cost issue, but the docs said no, it's really a matter of trying to limit radiation exposure. Em had about a dozen CTs, but once the docs said we were in territory where other signs would present themselves faster, the CTs were discontinued.
Not easy to take as a parent, because you get addicted to the information and reassurance of the tests, but I admired how well the decline of their frequency was thought out by the docs.
The key question we learned to ask everybody: "How will this test affect the course of our care?" If no good answer was had, then you had to challenge the test.
MARKETPLACE: "Exxon, Prospecting for Growth, Flips the Switch on Chinese Plant," by Russell Gold, Wall Street Journal, 12 November 2009.
Exxon plans to open 750 station on the mainland in the near term, "even as it is selling all of its company-owned stations in the U.S."
Exxon, a true supermajor, doesn't just compete upstream for reserves, but likewise downstream for retail markets.
WORLD NEWS: "India Taps Executive For Role In ID Plan," by Amol Sharma, Wall Street Journal, 10 November 2009.
The corporate chieftain (from Infosys) picked to run the show says the roadblocks aren't technological but political.
The goal is to get the poor and disadvantaged better access to government services and anything that requires proof of identity.
It is a huge census effort, really, to include biometrics, so Nandan Nilekani, the leader in question, spends a lot of time enlisting the support of players from all sorts of relevant sectors (banking, telecoms, regulators, agencies of all gov levels, etc.).
Here's the key subtext for India as a whole:
Mr. Nilekani's appointment--and performance as a cabinet-level minister--is being watched closely to see whether the management and technological expertise that has established India's information technology and other service industries as world class, can reform and rejuvenate India's notoriously labyrinthine and corrupt bureaucracy.
If Nilekani does well, the hope is that other gov execs will consider government stints.
For now, Nilekani is a non-stop PPT roadshow, complaining that "the amount of time you need to invest to push an idea in government is really high."
Preaching to the choir, my man.
ARTICLE: Biggest Obstacle to Global Climate Deal May Be How to Pay for It, By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL, New York Times, October 14, 2009
Little wonder on this one: can you imagine states turning over a trillion a year to some international organization? Imagine the waste, fraud and abuse potential on that one.
ARTICLE: Saudis Seek Payments for Any Drop in Oil Revenues, By JAD MOUAWAD and ANDREW C. REVKIN, New York Times, October 13, 2009
Not the first time the Saudis have raised this notion: getting welfare for lost oil revenue as the Core deals with global warming.
It is simply a measure of the Saudis' incompetence in diversifying their economy after all these years.
Now, they want to be paid for their strategic stupidity.
ARTICLE: Hybrid Cars May Include Fake Vroom for Safety, By JIM MOTAVALLI, New York Times, October 13, 2009
A truly interesting engineering issue: how to make silent hybrids just noisy enough to not constitute a hazard to pedestrians.
Let's hope they get artistic here, because we'll live the QWERTY effect if we're not careful. They'll want a universally recognized sound, but that doesn't mean it needs to be the same old, same old growl.
ARTICLE: Economy - In Iraq, a rapidly shrinking outlook for American companies, Peyamner News Agency, 13-Nov-09
The key bit:
Iraq's Baghdad Trade Fair ended Tuesday, six years and a trillion dollars after the American invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, and one country was conspicuously absent.That would be the country that spent that trillion dollars -- on the invasion and occupation, but also on training and equipping Iraqi security forces, and on ambitious reconstruction projects in every province aimed at rebuilding the country and restarting the economy.
Yet when the post-Saddam Iraqi government swept out its old commercial fairgrounds and invited companies from around the world, the United States was not among the 32 nations represented. Of the 396 companies that exhibited their wares, "there are two or three American participants, but I can't remember their names," said Hashem Mohammed Haten, director general of Iraq's state fair company. A pair of missiles atop a ceremonial gateway to the fairgrounds recall an era when Saddam Hussein had pretensions, if not weapons, of mass destruction.
The trade fair is a telling indication of an uncomfortable truth: America's war in Iraq has been good for business in Iraq -- but not necessarily for American business.
A perfectly fine outcome: we truly "win" when everybody else becomes convinced that they "won" more.
Let's see Noam Chomsky and the hate-American-imperialism crowd run with this one.
Larger reality: outside of oil, Iraq is not a particularly good fit for us economically. The natural networkers there are regional, mid-level players who know how to tap that bottom of the pyramid.
Something to remember as we craft a similar "win" in Af-Pak.
FRONT PAGE: "World Tries to Buck Up Dollar: Thailand, Korea, Russia Seen Buying U.S. Currency; Pressure on China to Boost Yuan," by Joanna Slater, William Mallard and Bob Davis, Wall Street Journal, 12 November 2009.
Timely headline for this week's Esquire column, reporting that China is coming under pressure not just from the EU but likewise from its own regional neighbors to relax its peg to the drooping dollar.
In effect, everybody recognizes how China is cheating by free-riding America's defensible effort (by not fighting the dollar's decline) to encourage a global rebalancing.
Great quote:
"It's one thing for the Chinese to ignore the U.S. and Europe, [Thailand's finance minister] said. "But when they start ignoring the developing G-20 it's a bit trickier."
As usual, as soon as the world crowns something as the "next big thing," the knives come out--and deservedly so in this instance. Yes, China's got its interior poor to think about, but now it's becoming clear that the ones who will pay for that logical devotion are the rest of the world's developing economies and impoverished populations.
China is simply closing the door behind itself as it moves upward.
And there's no way to sugarcoat that one.
ARTICLE: Building a Bridge of (and to) the Future, By HENRY FOUNTAIN, New York Times, October 12, 2009
Nifty example of the kind of upgrades made possible by advances in material sciences.
Always bet on ingenuity.
SCOPE: "Don't Be Afraid of China," by Melinda Liu, Newsweek, 12 October 2009.
Great point by Liu: this was all about telling the Chinese people not to worry, and that their government has their s--t together.
The fear is reasonable, as China's pol-mil ability to defend its growing vast network and trade and financial connectivity with the world is marginal at best, meaning there's a big shortfall between capability to defend and vulnerability--very USA circa 1880.
THE AMERICAS: "Mexico's troubled oil industry: How many Mexicans does it take to drill an oil well? More than 140,000, and even they're not very good at it. For this, now acute, problem, blame the politicians," The Economist, 3 October 2009.
The usual story on PEMEX: too proud to accept foreign investment, it's running itself, and the Mexican gov with it, into the ground.
23 of 32 major fields in decline and the world's 7th biggest producer is set, like Indonesia before it, to be a net importer by 2017.
The gov hasn't got a clue, despite oil money making up 40% of its revenues.
For now, PEMEX remains "the untouchable bone marrow of Mexican sovereignty."
