Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Everyone in company together in northern VA for ground truth/common operational picture/intellectual group grope for three days.

Need?

We're exploding in growth and need to make sure we're all on the same page as we traject forward (is that a word?).

I sit through brief on ontologies and I come up with this on my own:

1) Religion is mankind's first attempt at an ontology (hierarchical taxonomy like Wikipedia) of a "complex" world.

2) As complexity increases, the need for better ontologies increase.

3) Thus, as globalization spreads and deepens, the need for religion increases.

Take that Hitchens!

WORLD NEWS: "Conservatives Dominate Vote; President's Opponents Gain," wire reports, Wall Street Journal, 28 April 2008, p. A10.

The "hard-line leader is growing increasingly vulnerable ahead of a bid for re-election next year."

Conservatives dominate the parliament, but there are the technocratic/normalizers (those who want more normal relations with the world) and the ideological agitators of Ahmadinejad's stripe. The president's supports control 117 of the 290 seats, with the rest spread among the technocratic conservatives, moderates and reformists.

ARTICLE: Iranian outmaneuvers U.S. in Iraq, By Hannah Allam, Jonathan S. Landay and Warren P. Strobel, McClatchy Newspapers, April 28, 2008

Cheap, persistent and clever.

A manned drone.

(Thanks: Nancy Stefanik)

OP-ED: McCain's Radical Foreign Policy, PostGlobal, April 28, 2008

Very good piece by Zakaria, whose book I just finished.

You see all the us-v-them thinking in Kagan's: all he sees in the 21st century is the return of the 19th. My God, the neocons' complete lack of understanding of globalization and economics is just stunning.

That's what makes them so dangerous. McCain has no soul WRT economics: no business or real-world understanding whatsoever. So the neocons like Kagan fill that empty vessel.

Zakaria's calm reasonableness on globalization is completely missing on the GOP side right now. It is a sad state of affairs to see the party so dominated by economic Know-Nothings.

Worse, the GOP has virtually no young talent in the wings. Sad indeed.

We get McCain and we get far worse than Bush III. Bush was sensible if unambitious on globalization. McCain's worldview could easily destroy globalization unless he becomes more realistic and informed on global economics.

Otherwise it'll be just a bevy of advisers who see the world strictly in pol-mil terms blundering about far worse than Bush, who clearly knew his ass from his elbow on Russia and China.

(Thanks: Terence Dodge)

ARTICLE: In Afghanistan, insurgents attacking cellphone network, By Laura King, Los Angeles Times, April 23, 2008

About as emblematic as you can get in this war of Connectors v. Disconnectors.

(Thank: Jeff Jennings)

At 3-day retreat for entire Enterra staff to get us synched up on common understanding of who we are, what we're building, etc.

A favorite metaphor of mine is that our resilience technology is like a cherry sitting atop a big sundae: Steve and I have to sell clients (e.g., Port of Philadelphia, Kurdish Regional Government) first with thought leadership (you need this entire package) and then come up with the alliance of players to build the net (e.g., sensors, infrastructure), and then we get to pin our fab technology on top (the resilient architecture, etc.)

So no sundae (thought leadership consulting, deal-making, alliance building), then nowhere to place the "cherry.'

So after lunch today our chief counsel, the former head of Air Force JAG, Gen. Nolan Sklute, has a giant sundae sent to me as gag during meeting.

ARTICLE: U.S., Allies See Progress in Selling Al-Qaeda As an Enemy to the Muslim World, By Walter Pincus, Washington Post, April 28, 2008; Page A13

than feeding self-congratulatory soundbites to retired flags on our efforts in Iraq.

But Pillar is right: this only works over the long haul and I say, over the long haul this is negligible compared to local Mideast regimes creating real economic opportunity.

So our trade policy remains far more crucial.

ARTICLE: "North Korea Helped Syria Build Reactor, U. S. To Allege," by Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal, 23 April 2008, p. A1.

WSJ changing by day. This edition scraps the usual two front page, above crease features with "dimpled" head shots. My cover story from 04 is looking more anachronistic by the day.

On the story: my line on the entire second Bush administration still holds: focus on DPRK for takedown/collapse and end that scenario in Asia, cementing something better with Beijing in the process. DPRK already has the nukes and is sharing.

But this administration has failed consistently on sequencing: announcing its "axis of evil" up front, well before it had the means to deal with all three but sending advance notice of intent to do harm (always smart to telegraph your punch).

Too bad. More could have been done, and with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs now acting as chief saber rattler on Iran, I suspect this administration will continue to get its priorities confused.

Tom got this email:

On behalf of Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress, we would like to invite you to participate in the Terrorism Index, a survey of terrorism and national security experts from across the ideological spectrum.

The index, which last appeared in the September/October 2007 issue of Foreign Policy, is widely considered a benchmark assessment of U.S. national security and the fight against international terrorism. It has helped shape the policy debate and received substantial media coverage, both in America and abroad. Its findings have been reported in such media outlets as CNN, ABC News, Fox News, the New York Times, U.S. News & World Report, and NPR. This attention is a testament to how hungry the world is for information that helps distill the complex foreign policy issues we face today. At the core of the survey's success are experts such as yourself.

Tom writes after taking the survey:

My take: "Somewhat interesting, but a bit narrow in focus. Terrorism in a vacuum is how it felt. Weren't any questions that related to economics per se, although in many lists, you could choose "more aid,"

For biggest U.S. threat, I put "our own trade protectionism."

For biggest U.S. policy goal, I put "expand global economy."

I had to write both of those in, but they had nothing like that.

ARTICLE: U.S. Weighing Readiness for Military Action Against Iran, By Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post, April 26, 2008; Page A07

So, yes, I guess my piece in Esquire was as alarmist as some claimed, except:

-> I said Fallon could be fired and he was.

-> I said someone more pliable would be found, and he was.

-> I said Fallon's firing could signal the ramp up on Iran and we get both Petraeus and Crocker saying that enemy #1 in Iraq is Iran.

-> And as soon as Petraeus is named, we get the obviously released story about the preparations for military strikes.

We are told by Gates and others that "this is all passed" and that the only ones who argue it isn't are people who unduly alarm the public.

But the more open this latest ramp-up becomes, the harder it gets to deny. Those who simply mouth the Bush line will tell us again that this is all silly.

But the underlying truths remain: Bush has made his promises to friends in the region and Cheney believes it must be done on his watch.

ARTICLE: 'Death to Ahmadinejad,' Iranian crowds cry, UPI, March 19 2008

Flew out Sunday, early evening, through Phoenix. Lengthy cab ride to resort north of town, near some beautiful mountains. All-day affair with the Monitor Group, participating in a scenario-building workshop for a client (major division of major corporation). I served as expert in one group as we rotated through future world scenarios and then gave an unrehearsed address at the dinner to wrap things up. Went off of notes I took during day. Lotsa X-Ys, so familiar turf and plenty of fun. Also fun, though a bit nervy, to dream up impromtu 45-minute presentation on the spot, but a fun, retro, low-key challenge, as I drew everything as a I spoke on butcher block paper.

Went over well, and the subsequent Scotch was Dalwhinnie.

Monitor Group, best known for Michael Porter and a sub (Global Business Network under famed futurist Peter Schwartz) is a very impressive bunch. Ran a great show, and the quality of the people was uniformly awesome, including a Milwaukee-born with a PhD in Econ from MIT. It was fun to run with these big dogs for the day.

Tom got this email:

I was wondering if you were going to be speaking in the DC area time soon. I read a brief of yours and was impressed. I just returned from Iraq for the second time and we've (the Junior Officers) been pushing to evolve our forces into something similar you desribed. I would enjoy hearing more about it in person. Thanks for your time.

Regards,

former Marine Infantry 1st Lt

COVER STORY: "In China, a battle over Web censorship: As Beijing restricts what Internet users can see, 'hacktivists' try to crack 'Great Firewall,'" by Paul Wiseman, USA Today, 23 April 2008, p. 1A.

Invariably, the younger ones figure out the Matrix and demand their release from its artificiality.

As natural as the day is long.

That's why you focus on the connectivity and let the attempts at "mouse arrest" unfold in the near term. You simply know our way of thinking will win out in the end.

My favorite bit is the hacktivist Bill Xia, based in NC, who offers Chinese Web surfers his version of the "red pill."

Yes, China will seek to keep the bottlenecks going on traffic for as long as possible. Don't worry. Success and ambition will win out.

Absolutely, there will be plenty of ugliness in the meantime. The more we see, the fiercer the struggle, so it's a good sign.

ARTICLE: "Afghan Ministry Bans the Broadcast of 5 Foreign Soap Operas," by Abdul Waheed Wafa and Carlotta Gall, New York Times, 22 April 2008, p. A6.

Would I like no censorship at all? Actually no. Even I, living in the decadent West, want some controls, especially when kids are involved.

So no surprise, after four years in which boundaries are tested by foreign shows, Afghan conservatives strike back and demand more control—just too much for "Afghan religion and culture."

Afghan version of "American Idol"? Okay and hugely popular.

But the Indian soap where the heroine tries to convince her husband that she is not having an affair with a tycoon? Apparently, a bit much for now.

And I emphasize the "for now." We didn't jump from 1920s sensibilities to modern crassness over night, so why expect anybody else to do the same.

Better to focus on the connectivity and allow the content control. The former does its long-term magic, and inevitably, the latter comes under assault by the next generation uninterested in living in the walled garden.

ARTICLE: "Workers Get Power, Bosses Get Worried: A new Chinese labor law could prove costly for businesses," by Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 21-27 April 2008, p. 18.

China wants to move up the production ladder and wants its labor to make more money to cover the aging demographics, but timing is everything.

Turns out workers are working on their own definition of a proper trajectory. The beginning of the end of China as the world's factory floor?

Of course. This is the hope of interior China and the rest of the Gap: China will export the low-end stuff. The abuse of cheap labor will go some place where it's more welcomed by the local workforce—for a while that is ...

EDITORIAL: "An economic superpower, and now oil too: Oil could transform Brazil's economy. But not necessarily for the better," The Economist, 19 April 2008, p. 16.

The commodities boom favors Brazil right now, but the key thing is the rising economic connectivity: local firms going global and FDI flowing in at record rates ($35B last year).

Cyclical?

… some economists argue that Brazil is the beneficiary of a structural shift, in which the industrialization of Asia and the rise of a new middle class in the developing world will keep commodity prices high.

Count this amateur among them.

The fear is that the oil wealth will spoil the party. A bad tax system and labor code make firms unwilling to hire as much as they should, so 40% of the workforce stays informal. As past blog posts have noted, bottlenecks on infrastructure are a big problem left unaddressed. Then there is the usual temptation of pork barrel spending.

Something to keep an eye on.

Links to History will condemn us if...
+ I, Hans
+ gmgDesign
+ Gregory Scoblete

+ Fraters Libertas linked How I would welcome a McCain presidency.
+ Fear and Loathing in Georgetown embedded the YouTube video.
+ 1 Raindrop linked Globalization is boring.
+ Worth the Fee to Read It referenced Tom on winning the war but losing the peace.
+ Cal Poly MBA Trip linked the GOOD article.
+ One Cosmos referred to the Core and Gap.
+ ESDELADEA reprinted Recent books read (2 of 7): Glenny's "McMafia".
+ PurpleSlog linked We can out-guerilla them.
+ The Interpreter linked the YouTube video.
+ HG's WORLD linked all seven of Tom's recent book reviews.
+ SWJ Blog linked We also need connectivity with foreign militaries
+ So did ZenPundit.