Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Drove to Terre Haute with spouse Thursday before flying to CA to have new author shots done by our favorite local photog there (very nice lady who has studio in her vintage home).

So had a baker's dozen ordered in order to generate the CD for Putnam, giving them plenty to use/choose from.

I think I'll have Sean create a page here with downloadables for future use. Believe I have the one that I will use to finally replace my dimpled shot from the WSJ, which I still love, but that guy doesn't live here any more.

Suffering a sinus infection onset today. Big hint was going back to sleep for four hours after morning Enterra phone conference call. My dream said it all: Vonne and I had moved into an apartment in Maine with our kids on the way, and the dream consisted of me finding all these weird things out about the apartment but not really caring because I felt so much better for having left Indiana.

This is one great strategic life call that I truly regret: moving everybody back to the Midwest. I simply had no idea how bad the combo of allergens and air pollution (not good here) would be. I actually feel like I'm sick every first day back from travel, and way too often, I actually am. I have never gotten so many infections in my life. After the multiple surgeries in RI, I was pretty clean, but here it seems to make no difference. Ditto with my kids. It is a real nightmare that I would trade away in a heartbeat, but that's not an easy thing to pull off right now, so I feel the financial crisis plenty in the sense that it's this huge roadblock in my perceived freedom.

When I was at spiritual conference, there was this email that everyone was talking about where somebody suggested the USG take $700B and distribute to every American, something that would give the average household several hundred thousand, with the stipulation that it could only be used on mortgages. I don't know how you'd pull something like that off, but it struck me as sheer brilliance (perhaps that's the sinus infection talking) because, addressing that issue is the one thing I would gladly do with any monetary windfall right now. It would eliminate most of my financial worries and make me feel much more confident and free in my economic dealings with the world.

Again, don't know how you'd ever do that, but man, would that ever be politically popular! And wouldn't it still work as a financial injection of capital into the system?

Anyway, need to review book cover text, sent by Neil late last week.

Think I'll wait until tomorrow when my head should clear some.

I also need to have Sean organize a master file of any typos/corrections that readers of the advance uncorrected proofs generate. I have my mother-in-law (who's retired now but has taught K, grade, high, college and post-grad) reading the text carefully, generating the first great list, most of which Mark and I hopefully caught--but you never know.

I expect the next and basically final pass fully-typeset manuscript within a week or so.

Oh, almost forgot. My mother-in-law (saw her Sunday after WWII show), without prompting, told me how much she liked the big part in the book about the algorithms and my work with my partner, as she put it. She said it was fascinating and really exciting to read.

That made me feel very good, because that's a complex section and if my mother-in-law, who's not very technical, got it with ease and really liked it, then it means we pitched the level correctly for mass audience acceptance.

Small notation, but a big achievement nonetheless: literally passing the "mother-in-law test"!

Flew out late Thursday to Palm Springs CA. Bit of an effort, because I go Indy to Denver, Denver to Las Vegas and then Vegas to Palm Springs on a prop. But the real problem is that I was peaking on a bad cold.

Picked up by a local reverend and driven to this nice resort at Palm Springs, where I crash after watching the repeat of the vice presidential debate on CNN.

Not hard, despite the cold, to get up early the next day, due to the time change. I pick out about 29 slides to do in about 50 minutes in a keynote/plenary session of this conference on spiritualism that brings together about 200-250 religious/spiritual leaders from around the United States, a couple from Canada, and perhaps a sprinkling from abroad. It’s run by a group known by the acronym, AGNT, or the Association for Global New Thought. The main host is a Deepak Chopra-like guru, Dr./Rev. Michael Beckwith, who is advertised as being featured in the recent bestselling book, The Secret.

I test the AV set-up around 0815 and then retreat to the Green Room, which is nicely set-up. Inside I am approached by a variety of people, including Beckwith and Barbara Marx Hubbard, with whom I’ve interacted before. To give some context, this crowd is very much in touch with Dr. Don Beck and his whole spiral dynamics approach, which is an interesting mix of Hegelian states of being and Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. If you’re into philosophy, cosmology and inner spiritual growth, this is a very intriguing crowd—very non-denominational and open to all flavors.

While the Green Room cohort gathers for a kick-off-the-day prayer/meditation, I slip out with my coffee and my iPod playing Cold Play’s latest album, which I am digging intensely. With the cold and time change, I’m not looking for inner peace but a sense of inner drive, so I’m psyching myself up for a high-energy performance because the crowd, as it gathers, is giving a rather demanding buzz (see how this stuff gets into you so fast—then again, I am a natural mimic who blends in wherever I go).

Ah, to be 8-of-9.

Still, this crowd of 250 is probably 80-85 percent women, so that alone gives me a different feeling going in, because I often talk to a diametrically opposed gender balance (the military, go figure).

Tasteful stage, mostly dominated by a funky, jazz-fusion-style quartet that’s putting the crowd in the mood. Good screen in the corner, with drop-down projector.

Opening speaker leads a meditation effort; I’m still on Cold Play.

Then a rep/organizer from next year’s Parliament of Religions (first one in 1893) world conference in Melbourne Australia speaks. She tells me beforehand that she’s tying her talk in a bit with my presentation by noting the DoD’s recent decision to allow Wiccan symbols to be placed on the graves of dead servicemen/women.

Hmm, I think to myself. I’m following an avowed witch on stage. Definitely a new one for me. I mean, I’ve followed all manner of dark princes and evil wizards over the years, so a rather harmless looking witch is not so bad, but definitely different.

After she speaks for about ten minutes, we get a jazzy/New Age song from the band and a female singer.

Then a quick intro and I’m up and rolling.

Feeling strangely recovered from the cold (funny how that often works for me as stage-time approaches), I launch in and am surprised by how well the humor goes over. Often with a purely civilian crowd (the lady who intro’d me said that AGNT had never had a “military strategist” speak at one of their gatherings before), my sense of humor comes off as shockingly dark—downright black. But this crowd not only picks up on it, it rocks like few audiences I’ve ever engaged.

As always, you only get what you give, so the more response I encounter, the more humor I inject. Oddly enough, for what you consider to be more a Joel Osteen crowd (one of my speaking models), I actually get closer than I think I’ve ever achieved to another stage model of mine, Chris Rock (whose new HBO special is fantastic), so I’m having a surprisingly raucous time.

I will admit: I have this way with women of a certain age, like I’m the Liberace of grand strategists. I think they suspect I’m this closet militarist, but deep down, they just don’t care.

That’s not a stretch. I have appeared onstage many times (in a previous life) in gloriously sequined costumes (I was “Riverdance” two decades before those people made it famous). I’ve also played Vegas. And I dream of mastering the piano. All the pieces are there, waiting for some queer, midlife crisis to kick in.

But seriously, one fiftyish woman actually came up to me afterwards and said that she and about 20 of her girlfriends had collectively decided—halfway through my talk—that they were all going to write me in on 4 November for president of the United States.

If only I bottle that mystique and sell by the case!

Again, more seriously: great audience and just the right experience for me right now, one that psyches me up on the book. These are stories worth telling.

After the talk, I get a standing ovation, but I discount it, because this crowd gives everybody a standing ovation—even the lady who simply led the morning meditation. A bit promiscuous, this audience.

Still, you can sense a very strong buzz after a performance and the clearest sign is that about 25 people just plain followed me out of the ballroom, abandoning keynoter #2 and stuck with me for about 30 minutes of follow-on, impromptu delivery in the hall.

When that ends, I manage to walk about 30 yards before a secondary situation unfolds (about a dozen), and that goes maybe 20 minutes more.

Then an invite to lunch and I sit down with three people and simply continue in full Q&A mode for another 90 minutes (hey, it’s a free lunch).

Then back to the ballrooms and I’m supposed to lead a break-out session that’s very loosely defined on my books. It’s an overflow, SRO audience of maybe 80 or so in this boxy, windowless interior room. I take five questions over 90 minutes, giving 15-20 minute answers to each. Totally warm, I am in my circular-speaking, free-associating best, which at times can be a bit confusing, usually is over-the-top funny, and actually is the most unexpurgated way I speak (often with a vodka martini in hand—actually, best with a martini or a neat Laphroagh).

I get another standing ovation, and this one I felt I actually deserved. I often dislike the perfunctory tack-on Q&A after a performance, preferring a break that allows people to digest and then approach me in an unstructured follow-up session, so from my perspective, this was simply ideal.

Better yet, I basically did Great Powers the PPT-less version in my answers, allowing me to practice my verbal delivery in anticipation of my new slide package, currently being developed by longtime compatriot Bradd Hayes, so I felt like I was nicely double-dipping: working out my pitch while pitching the book.

After that 90, I go about 30 with a follow-on group impromptu in the hallway, then I go off with a couple of writers from What is Enlightenment magazine and do about a 45-minute taped interview in the Green Room.

Then up to my room to speak with Vonne by phone, then back downstairs to sit at a table with fellow speakers for the evening meal. Tom Hartman from “Air America” is there to deliver one of the two evening keynotes, but I mostly talk with Barbara Fields, the AGNT organizer of the conference, who brings up the possibility of marketing Great Powers through AGNT’s bookstore to many of the megachurches represented here. Naturally, her spirit moves me.

During dinner I have about a dozen people come up and express their excitement/gratitude over the talk, a couple in tears, which is not as unusual as you might think for me. The main upshot is unsurprising: they love the sense of optimism and hope in the future.

Still, a bit different to get blessed so many different ways in one night. A lot of subtle bowing involved.

I skip the evening talks and crash. When you add up all the public speaking, it’s been a very long day and I’m reminded of the lingering cold. Upstairs I veg out on Devito’s film, “Hoffa,” which I find very good and a wonderful reminder of our tumultuous labor past.

Up very early today (Saturday) to fly home through Denver.

All in all, a pleasantly contemplative/interactive time. Jenn, my manager, of course talked me into this one. She has that strange knack of knowing where I need to go and when I need to go there, often keeping from me a lot of information because she knows I sort of like to be surprised when I get there—actually discovering the crowd while I’m speaking. It’s just a better mode for me. I’ve learned to trust her instincts in this regard. As always, everyone from AGNT who dealt with Jenn in setting up this gig went out of their way to say what a fabulous person she is to interact with. Jenn is a serious mentor of mine and a very strong personality. Being older than me, she comes off like an older sister in many ways. But despite her strong approach, she’s got this perfect pitch for scouting out, negotiating and managing a speaking career. Most agents in that business have quieter personalities, but she’s very proactive and protective with regard to where I need to be, whom I need to meet, and venues I should be exploring and exploiting. And I’m incredibly grateful for that, because I’ve gone through a significant number of previous iterations before finally settling on this long-time relationship with her.

But enough touchy-feely. I sense a key Packer game coming up!

ARTICLE: "With Push From White House, U.S. Arms Sales Rise Sharply," by Eric Lipton, New York Times, 14 September 2008.

We're pretty much always been number one in gun running, with the post-Sov Russians fading fast across the 1990s but resurging lately.

But since 2005 it's been the U.S. defense industry that surges in overseas sales. That dovetails nicely with the drawn-out postwar badly handled by us—until recently. All that operational cost crimps acquisition spending, plus makes allies nervous due to our tie-down, plus encourages implied targets to get nukes, which in turn makes even more allies nervous.

So our somewhat stressed industry finds real opportunity/relief abroad, and everyone's backs get scratched.

A safer world? Not really. But not a more dangerous one per se, either. Just a more heavily armed one.

But yeah, this is totally about gun-running, no matter how you spin it. The rest is just our propaganda.

So interesting to track the big jump since 2005, because that's the year the postwar in Iraq really goes sour.

ARTICLE: "The 100 Top Brands: Here's how Interbrand puts a number on the power of a name," BusinessWeek, 29 September 2008.

Of the top 100 brands in the world, 52 are American, meaning any Wall Street/subprime-triggered slowdown in America will make all those brands that much more vulnerable to possible takeovers by rising New Core behemoths flush with cash. While the pain is hard to isolate nowadays in the global economy, meaning the East hurts too, they don't hurt as much and they just might be ambitious enough and market smart enough to see the opportunity here.

WORLD NEWS: "U.S., North Korea Talks Are in State of 'Inertia': Kim's Health Raises Uncertainties, Stalls Nuclear Discussions," by Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal, 19 September 2008.

No great surprise that DPRK backtracks from the last agreement with the U.S. As Bush-Cheney winds down in its extreme lame duckness, it seemed wildly optimistic to think we'd get what we wanted from Pyongyang.

Yes, Kim's alleged stroke in mid-August will get us the same outcome, meaning our lame duckness is now matched by his, and so those around him will talk and act tough out of fear.

But then there's the larger pattern, pointed out here by David Asher, a former Bush senior official, of North Korea acting bad and then asking for new talks, so Kim's decline may simply have reset that cycle in motion.

On that basis, then, I'd expect something truly bad from North Korea, given the ruling coalition's fears of life after Kim.

OP-ED: Hail Mary vs. Cool Barry, By Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post, October 3, 2008; A23

Krauthammer agrees: calm, cool, collected and calculating will win, and frantic, crisis-filled and ideological will lose.

Why?

Bush burned us out with 8 years of the latter, turning too much of the world against us in the process.

We're done with hedgehogs for now--simple as that.

U.S. WWII airborne re-enactors in regulation chutes after jumping out of a C-47 at the Terre Haute airport as part of a big re-enactment (camp, planes, etc.).

C-47 taxis after landing.

Stewart tank

Crisis begets accountability and transparency

China's ongoing dairy crisis highlights the fundamental dynamic of globalization: high-trust markets linking up to low-trust environments. The results are predictable: tainted product scandals, followed by sweeping new regulations.

China just beefed up the rules governing its dairy industry, whose main players clearly sought a government cover-up. But with 50,000-plus Chinese kids sickened and foreign governments restricting China's milk exports, the ruling Communist Party had no choice.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

ARTICLE: "Chinese Dairies Face a Worsening Crisis: Slow Response to Tainted Formula Fans Consumer Fears," by Loretta Chao, Wall Street Journal, 19 September 2008.

We're talking a $21b domestic dairy industry, and over 6k ill babies, including many with kidney stones.

Here's the part I like:

Liu Jinhu, an analyst for Sealand Securities in Shenzhen, said that if Chinese dairy companies want to avoid being overtaken by foreign counterparts they will have to rebuild their supply chains and practice better corporate responsibility. The milk-powder scandal "might become a watershed for China's dairy industry to find its rebirth," he said. In the long run, it will to consolidation and a shuffling of the industry, he said.

Again, not long after the Sichuan earthquake, we're talking lots of public anger at local government officials.

The problem was inevitable, said Chinese experts, due to the poorly regulated supply chains and the bad reporting methods concerning problems, meaning no ability to trace it back up the chain.

From know-your-customer to know-your supply chain, right out of Great Powers.

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