Tom's latest book: Great Powers: America and the World After Bush
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August 8, 2008

It's water, plus a focus on the dog--not the tail

ARTICLE: "GE Sets Abu Dhabi Partnership for $8 Billion," by Chip Cummins, Wall Street Journal, 23 July 2008, p. B1.

GE lets Abu Dhabi Mubadala Development Co (remember that name) plunk down an $8B investment to set up--jointly--a commercial finance division to focus on the Mideast and Africa.

Why allow such a big equity buy-in?

GE's future has long been in water (one senior exec told me a while back that there's just too much money to be made in water infrastructure for GE not to be heavily involved) and most of that will come in emerging markets--hence the Mideast and Africa focus (most water-deprived).

But the larger message?

Sovereign wealth funds like Mubadala will be the big dogs whose wagging tails will determine much about where money gets spent on Gap infrastructure.

Don't live under the delusion that U.S. military interventions drive anything by comparison.

Two down, one to go in global currency balancing function

ARTICLE: "IMF Says Global Imbalance to Stay: Weak Dollar Helps Narrow the Gap, But Oil, Yuan Weigh," by Tom Barkley, Wall Street Journal, 23 July 2008, p. A10.

Decline of dollar achieved at price of overvalued Euro. Meanwhile, Asia as a whole does not step up to the plate: China's yuan still out of whack.

A convertible Yuan helps the Euro absorb some of the natural rise triggered by the dollar's fall. Two can and should play that global game.

Connectivity empowers the Gap: person by person

LINK BY LINK: "In Egypt, a Thirst for Technology and Progress," by Noam Cohen, New York Times, 21 July 2008, p. C3.

Stories from Wikipedia's annual convention: Facebook and the Arabic Wikipedia help connect Egypt to the rest of the world, say participants.

And no "strategic communications" were required!

The pain just isn't there yet on Doha

ARTICLE: "Global trade talks fall apart: Years of wrangling end without reaching an accord," by David J. Lynch, USA Today, 30 July 2008, p. 1B.

Doha will go beyond seven years. Not unprecedented. Uruguay went 8 years (negotiations) and didn't go into effect until 9 years passed. Given the reality that Doha gets into the toughest territory yet, it wouldn't surprise me to see a decade pass.

Key bit:

The issue that scuttled the talks involved a demand by India and China for the right to increase tariffs if food imports surged.

That's global warming talking, long-term: rising demand and a fear about being able to meet it domestically. But the reality is that India's and China's small farmers are doomed. Only a matter of time.

Long predicted, but nonetheless an important milestone

ARTICLE: China becomes biggest net nation, BBC, 28 July 2008

(Thanks: Andy)

August 7, 2008

Own it, baby!

OP-ED: A Long Wait at the Gate to Greatness, By John Pomfret, Washington Post, July 27, 2008; Page B01

Fab piece by Pomfret. I feel like I was on NPR with him once...

[Ed:
Wow! That was a fun show!
One thing about Pomfret that bugged me...
Oooh! I retract the bitchy comment about Pomfret from last night ...]

Anyway, a great article detailing how overblown our fears and expectations of China are. The "rise of the rest" is profound and good, but hardly the immediate--if ever--displacement.of our lead position in the global economy and security order. Pomfret makes this point in spades, and numerous analysts point out similar severe limitations re: India.

Everyone loves that "who's up?" and "who's down?" stuff. It sells books.

But it's still a world of our making and managing. That's the essential message of Great Powers.

Own it, baby!

(Thanks: Ram Narayanan)

Tom around the web

Links to A war that no one wants but everybody needs:
+ Huenemanniac
+ CathiefromCanada
+ zenpundit
+ The Podium
+ iStockAnalyst

+ Suzanne, the Farmer's Wife recommended PNM.
+ A Second Hand Conjecture linked America’s protectionist politicians: always behind the learning curve.
+ The Global Buzz linked Firefox 3 pledge map vs. the Pentagon’s new map.
+ And embedded the TED talk.
+ Life the Way You Want It linked the TED talk.
+ Marc's Blog wants to run PNM and BFA through an AI/mind map thing he's working on.
+ et alli linked All systems "go" for war.
+ Oregon Pundit quoted the Fallon Esquire story.

+ My Adventure to Enlightenment linked Taking stock ...
+ tdaxp linked China's earthquake turning out to be a legitimate System Perturbation.
+ Quality Leadership Weblog linked Unpopular trifecta.
+ And linked If Iran wants to trigger US strikes for domestic purposes, this is the route.
+ Hidden Unities linked Want leverage with China on Sudan?
+ Outside the Beltway linked There will always be a “cause celebre” for al Qaeda.
+ So did BitsBlog.

+ Penguin Monkey linked Recognizing the inevitables to approach the inconceivables.
+ Information Dissmeination linked Guest Post: KC-17 Many-Mission Tanker Idea.
+ americanapocalypsesurvivalhandbook/recipebook linked Some numbers arising from New Core demand.
+ Sino-American Economics quoted Tom from last year's USN&WR column.
+ SWJ Blog linked Another sign of al Qaeda’s limits on soft power.
+ et alli linked The most vigorous glass-half-full reading by two key architects of the surge.

What's the Sahara good for?

POST: 0.3% of Saharan Sun Enough To Power Europe, Environmental GraffitiJul 25, 2008

Interesting. A bit down the road, I imagine, but an obvious glimpse of the flows to come.

(Thanks: Joel Morgan)

China's rural consolidation far from over

ARTICLE: "On China Farms, Push for Consolidation Is Growing," by Nicholas Zamiska, Wall Street Journal, 25 July 2008, p. A9.

Average farm in China is 16 acres, but 441 in U.S.

When I was a kid starting grade school at Immaculate Conception, a big proportion of kids were "farm kids." By the time we graduated from high school, many of those same kids walked to school, their parents having sold their farms and moved their families to town. Some big Chicago concern, known as Windward Farms, was buying out small farmers and consolidating their lands into a large-scale agribusiness.

Deng kicks off China's rise by promoting the de facto decollectivization of its ag sector, but consolidation remains. The trick is, China has to create so many millions of jobs each year to handle that flow, that any further speeding up of the migration process seems awfully intimidating to the leadership.

And yet accelerate it must, for many reasons.

The basic suspicion confirmed on Favre

When I watched the ESPYs a couple of weeks ago, they camera kept going back from Beckham/Posh Spice to Favre/Deanna, and you could tell that Favre and his wife were supremely digging it--like they thought this was the way it should be.

That's when I started wondering if this whole thing was a ploy for Favre to go to a big market like Beckham did by coming to LA--that Favre wanted to have those mega-star moments in his last years (and so did his wife).

You think about the last few years and all the signs were there. It's natural. The guy's been the big star for a long time, even though his best years of success are about a decade past and the Jets are unlikely to give him any real shot (playing the Pats 2X).

So he wants a last couple of years playing in the Big Apple, where the attention will be magnificent.

I had hoped he wanted to play for the Packers and it was all just his wavering, but now I suspect the whole thing was fairly engineered in a campaign, because just when he had the Packers where he wanted them, he sabotaged the deal himself in the long meeting with McCarthy by playing the aggrieved party to the hilt.

When I heard that, I figured, big market, with the ESPYs image stuck in my skull.

Again, it's a fairly natural outcome--sad for us but the kind of thing you'd expect from a couple of aging thirtysomethings from a small town who really like being that famous (e.g., they both had bestselling books in the last year or so) and really like the idea of becoming even more so (going on TV a lot more, attending a lot of televised events, endorsements galore, giant ads in Times Square, etc., coverage all the time in the Times). They'll tell you it's all about the game and wanting to get to the Super Bowl, but that was the Packers outcome. This is about cashing in on some more profound level, and it's hard to begrudge them that after all the good years we got.

Still, no fun as a fan.

August 6, 2008

Quick quiz on who supplies American oil

Five biggest sources (in alpha order): Africa, Latin America, Middle East, North America outside U.S., United States.

What's the order from biggest source to smallest?

Answer found in first comment.

A tipping point on de-/regulation

ARTICLE: "Amid Turmoil, U.S. Turns Away From Decades of Deregulation," by Bob Davis, Damian Paletta and Rebecca Smith, Wall Street Journal, 25 July 2008, p. A1.

A lot of political scientists see a roughly three-decade period of progressive deregulation starting with Reagan. Most now also see that era coming to an end.

Makes sense to me in a global sense: decades to open things up and encourage connectivity, but now you have the high-trust-environment West trying to further integrate/train-up the lower-trust-environment of all those rising New Core pillars, who themselves provide a growing link to much of the Gap through their rising resource requirements. Upshot being the Old Core West "suddenly" feels itself uncomfortably connected to all sorts of Deadwoods and Badlands, question being, how do we clean-up this suddenly crummy system?

Hmm. Feels like a column.

Disaster response backdoor to mil-mil cooperation

ARTICLE: Asian Nations To Pool Resources Against Disasters, By VIJAY JOSHI. Associated Press, July 24, 2008

Because the military is naturally a lead logistical component of any national response to natural disasters, this is a fine backdoor into mil-mil cooperation, forming a possible early cornerstone for regional military alliance.

(Thanks: Tyler Durden)

I give you ... one strand of an energy future that is both inevitable and good!

POST: Hyperion’s Nuclear-In-A-Box Ready By 2013, by Katie Fehrenbacher, earth2tech, August 1st, 2008

(Thanks: Louis Heberlein)

What he said!

NEWS RELEASE: 'Major discovery' from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution, July 31, 2008

(Thanks: Louis Heberlein)

A truly brilliant blog post by Galrahn

POST: The Navy's New Cold War Strategy, By Galrahn, Information Dissemination, August 4, 2008

I do that post as a Center for Naval Analyses report and I'd be damn proud of the effort--it's that polished and solid.

The danger here: Gates is secretary over only half of the U.S. military right now.

(Thanks: Endre Lunde)

August 5, 2008

You know you're in Bean Town when ...

You spot Aerosmith's Steven Tyler casually buying mags in a Logan lounge.

Always good to start a trip with a celebrity sighting that's geographically appropriate. Helps orient you.

Per my obsession with tiny celebrities, I'd say he's close to six feet tall.

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