Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 13 June 2004

Despite my continuing anger and embarrassment over the New York Times’ refusal to review my book (or perhaps driving it), I just love reading the Sunday Times. There’s no Sunday Wall Street Journal, and frankly, the Washington Post, outside of the Outlook section, is significantly weaker than the weekday version (not surprising for workaholic DC). But the Sunday Times is strong from stem to stern. The Week in Review is typically strong, the book reviews are among the best, Arts & Leisure is probably the strongest of the bunch (giving you all sorts of overview analysis of movies, music, theater, opera and so on), and the Sunday magazine often contains one or even two really solid stories worth reading all the way through (although James Traub’s article today on Iran’s nuclear program was a complete snooze).

But what always amazes me about the paper is how many great stories there tends to be in the A section. Without a doubt, one of the best bets to find several great stories on how things are moving across the country and the world is the main section of the Sunday Times. It’s almost a barometer of my futurology fitness: if I’ve spent the week wondering about some issues and then I see the articles capturing the same emerging sentiment or analysis on page 1 of the Sunday Times, I feel “fit” versus “flabby” in my ability to sniff out tipping points. If I were to locate the brain of the NYT, it would be on page 1 of the Sunday Times.

As for the ego, that would definitely be the op-ed page, which has become such an avowed star-system with the Times that the quality has really gone downhill in recent years. It’s almost like a daily reminder of the Heisenberg Principle (or Observer Created Reality): once you make the reporter the center of attention, all the analysis goes downhill. Paul Krugman and Maureen Dowd are the worst examples, but Thomas Friedman is catching up. For now, Nicholas Kristof is keeping it together, but slippage is inevitable. You have to admit, though, it’s an efficient production system, because all they need to do is bag up the op-eds every two years and it’s an instant bestseller, with a guaranteed review in the Times and lots of advertisements and TV appearances that all come together to pretty much predetermine its “brilliance’’—even if it’s only a rehashed collection of op-eds. But think of it, you pay something like $40 a month for the op-eds in the first place, and then they nab you for $25 later just to have them all stitched together.

But enough with the carping and back to the main point: yesterday I wrote about how the Reagan funeral extravaganza created this profound pause in the whole Bush-is-going-down-because-Iraq-is-a-disaster scenario that many political analysts seem to buying whole cloth. I mean, everybody likes a sequel of a popular story, but the problem is Bush 43 is a real improvement on Bush 41 and Kerry just ain’t Bill Clinton (unless he’s waiting to break out a can of I-can-feel-your-pain whupass on the campaign trail).

My points were basically that it shut down Kerry for a significant period during which Bush seemed like he was bottoming out due to Iraq, meanwhile the whole Iraq thing quietly shifted from a complete-disaster-of-neocon-making into something a whole lot more hopeful, primarily because it’s now Iraqis running the show with the U.S. slipping into the background and working more as System Administrators dispensing aid that rebuilds Iraq’s social networks and economic infrastructure and as the on-site military Leviathan dedicated to serving as the fledgling regime’s bodyguard.

Judging by the emails I’ve gotten from various people on-site in the Green Zone, the splitting of the U.S. military force into Sys Admin and Leviathan roles isn’t just emerging, it’s basically there. It’s not a question of predictive powers or—even more ludicrously—the notion of influence, but simply the ability to spot undeniable strategic realities as they emerge. It’s not a gift, but a skill. It can be learned, taught, self-developed, and kept up through consistent use.

Why I say that is because I feel strongly that anybody can develop this skill with enough effort and that America as a whole needs to develop this muscle if we’re going to ever reach a happy ending in this global war on terrorism, moving far beyond that limited goal to what I call the global future worth creating.

So here’s my answer to the eternal question of what is the one thing I’d want when stranded on the desert island in terms of information flow: the Sunday New York Times. Pound for pound, it’s the best.

Today’s evidence includes:

Will this election be determined by Iraq?

“Iraqis Start to Exercise Power Even Before Date for Turnover,” by Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times, 13 June, p. A1.

“Road for Relief Team Is Gauntlet of Enemy Fire: ‘We can’t fix anything if they’re shooting at us,” by Michale Kamber, NYT, 13 June, p. A16.

“Behind the Scenes, a Restless and Relentless Kerry,” by Jodi Wilgoren, NYT, 13 June, p. A1.

“Approval in May,” results Gallup Polls, NYT, 13 June, p. A25.

“A Nation Divided? Who Says? On gay rights, gun control and abortion, there’s a whole lot of agreeing going on,” by John Tierney, NYT, 13 June, p. WK1.

“Why America Sees the Silver Lining: ‘Success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside our control,” by John Leland, NYT, 13 June, p. WK1.

“And Yes, He Was a Great Communicator: A president’s debt to Jefferson Smith, George Bailey and Tom Joad,” by Geoffrey Nunberg, NYT, 13 June, p. WK5.

“Short on Priests, U.S. Catholics Outsource Prayers to Indian Clergy,” by Saritha Rai, NYT, 13 June, p. A13.

“Saudi Gunmen Kill American; Qaeda Claims Another Death,” by AP, NYT, 13 June, p. A8.

“Israel Says Children Enlist Children as Suicide Bombers: Peer pressure among Palestinian teenagers to become martyrs,” by Greg Myre, NYT, 13 June, p. A3.