Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Churches, in particular religious civil societies, also provide resilience to states. The Revolutions of 1848 passed English-speaking countries by, for example, because of the widespread civil religious institutions in those countries. If the CCP wishes to survive the next recession, it would do well to create these stabilizing mecahnisms.

The CCP discourages independent churches because it fears political losses to religious institutions when times are good. I remember Machiavelli, though. Foolish princes create bad political societies to make rule easier when times are good, but then become helpless when danger is near.

This has been another good reminder to all those people out there who constantly wish to show that no matter what is going on economically or how many rule sets are changing in China that the Communist idealogy will some how trump all. The article by Barma and Ratner "China's Illiberal Challenge" is only one of many such arguements that lack this forsight or understanding.

It's not an interesting bet who will win. The churches will eventually push through change. The interesting bit is *how* that change will come about. Will it be done peacefully or painfully? Will the CCP bend to a new order or break?

Perhaps the Spring of Nations (1848) missed Great Britian also because GB saw it coming and pre-empted the revolutionary impetus by librializing a few laws, esp. the Reform Act of 1832, and still had to deal with the Chartist movement that came to a head with the petition to Parliament of 1848. I believe it is too easy to use only a single indicator in this case. On the other hand, deeply felt spiritual beliefs keep individuals in the fight long after those in it just for the money and power have left the field. China's, Thailand's and USA's spiritual values are being contested by those who draw upon such deeply felt spiritual values. USA's fundamentalist religious right obviously is not supported by a majority of USA citizens and in fact alienates many who have legitimate spiritual questions, that is our problem. The brutal suppression of Falun Gong in China is their problem. Falun Gong has (had?) more members than China's Communist Party, hence the continuing violence against a perceived internal threat. The spiritual leader of Falun Gong, Li Hongzhi, specifically forbids political activity by his followers, and yet they have marched in his absence. Perhaps if Li Hongzhi was not forced to flee for his life he could still be a voice of reason and constraint in China. If the Christian and Islamic religions ever gain a significant following in China it is hard not to expect harsh treatment to be visited upon them as well.

I hope man can overcome religion and develop a more logical and more objective way of solving problems. Forget religion. So many wars have occurred in the name of religion and nobody dare to speak out against religion. Religion can be soothing and comforting which some people need sometimes but man has misued religion throughout history.

David,

I know that were people to adopt something more "logical" we would end up fighting or arguing about that just as much.

Agree TM. Never bet against the desire for sex, family, or spirituality (and yeah, that counts for gays and lesbians too).

But the answer is, it will be both: spastic overreactions by the government, scandals and outrage from the people, backing off by the government, the occasional new law that tempers it all a bit (then repeat about a thousand times over years).

But I agree, there's no question who wins.

The majority of people in China are still very poor. They will probably be for a long time. It would be nice if they could enjoy some freedom, but evil and corruption does not go away that easily.