Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Define your terms better as to who "we" is and you'll have a stronger point. The Core will survive the suicide of some of its constituent societies because connectivity leads to arbitrage in all things and people will move to fill the vacuum. This does nothing for those who love Italy, Greece, and the rest of the suicidals in the Core. Even in a worst case scenario, the territory doesn't have to fall out of the Core.

This is a qualitatively different situation from Iran. Who will move there? What sort of connectivity will permit the flows without great violence?

But it is no foregone conclusion that Iran will stop hanging a homosexual from a crane every time we start gaining connectivity. I believe that the current executive understands the "kill me softly" gambit and are determined to be repulsive enough that we cannot go through with it without selling our own souls (I also don't think they're the only faction that 'gets it'). They don't have to do this forever, merely hold things together long enough so that they go nuclear and can start on the ancient economic revitalization plan of expansion and looting that's as old as the Mongols.

Long-term, connectivity will win absent a crisis that changes the world but making it to the long term is the problem. How long can connectivity realistically be resisted by Ahmadinejad and company? Can the "push the button" brigade in Iran gain and hold a unified Iranian government until there is a button to be pushed?

In my opinion, realistic analysis and advice on Iran depends on diving down into the details of which 12er Shia sect which parts of the government control, what are their electoral prospects (starting with but not limited to their 12/15/2006 election), and when is Iran going to make it into the nuclear club?

I think that from the 50k foot perspective, you can make a persuasive case that we're 10 minutes from armaggeddon and also that we can do a soft-kill scenario that might take a decade or two to play out. The details show which is right and as far as I can tell the details are not out there in the open literature. That does not reassure me. It is a disconnectivity of a fairly frightening sort.

I have to take sharp issue with Spengler’s article. Talk of Jewish whores or Iranian whores seems to be a clumsy attempt to demonize other nationalities or races. Some Iranian knave could easily write a counter article about the United States and whores, citing the vast number of street whores, high priced by appointment whores, preacher paid gay whores, or even the quite legal State of Nevada whores. What the point then? Insult and counter insult?

Spengler’s appears to be another propagandist seeking to escalate war fever. There are at least two camps behind the war fever push: the government of Israel and the war profiteers. Israel has cause, as its very existence may be at stake. The war profiteers are another matter. I reckon that of the 2 billion a week that goes to Iraq, plus what ever cut of the Iraq oil revenue; only about $420 million is used to support the 140,000 troops there. (140,000 X 3,000). The balance or $1.580 billion per week is lining someone’s pocket. That enough money to give each member of Congress and/or high government official a few million per year and still retain a sizeable balance. This has to end or we will never get out of Iraq.

Contrasted with Spengler’s, your views are basically correct. We need to talk to Iran. They are one of our vital suppliers. If your orientation is business rather than military, you know that antagonizing suppliers is bad business. Not even talking to suppliers makes no sense either militarily or business wise.