ARTICLE: Gates Ties Iraq Push to Drawdown: Successful Troop Boost Could Mean Withdrawal Starting by Year's End, He Says, By Josh White and Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post, January 13, 2007; Page A01
Some telegraphing here by Gates: by end of year, expect Bush team to admit some version of failure with heavy blame on Iranian meddling (and there will be plenty, which will be progressively "discovered!" as year unfolds in a series of "disturbing revelations" that "no one could have seen coming!"--hence no blame assessed within administration), as White House gears up strong sale (already being pushed by GOP hawks on Hill) for military strikes against Tehran. The basic game plan? A new splendid little war to divert attention from numbers 1 (Afghanistan-bleeding-into -Pakistan) and 2 (Iraq collapsing in on itself).
Problem? Our only ally this time will be Israeli hawks.
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Comments (3)
It would be nice to have Chinese allies, but as you say that is unlikely to happen before the takedown of North Korea.
Compared to them, the Europeans are of little significance, so I won't mind something happening without them.
Bush has been better at the wars (the big bang, etc) than the reconstructions, so if the Iran strike does happen, the best result would be to topple the Iranian regime and let the locals sort it out.
Posted by Dan tdaxp | January 14, 2007 7:59 AM
"Rush to war" anyone? Talk like this is going to provoke that counterstroke and pushing for strikes is not going to carry a viable majority on the Hill this Congress. But the discoveries will awaken the people and make enough Democrats vulnerable that next Congress the new president is going to see more hawks and less doves. That's not the primary motivation but it's a secondary one. The only cure is for the Democrats to get over Vietnam, something that would certainly be in the nation's interest.
Posted by TM Lutas![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/nav-commenters.gif)
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January 15, 2007 8:34 AM
No rush, TM, but a very concerted push by the White House going back well over a year.
How you give Bush such a wellspring of "benefit of the doubt" strikes me as increasingly strained. The record to date does not warrant it.
Analysis as wish fulfillment wastes your talents...
Posted by Thomas Barnett | January 15, 2007 4:34 PM