Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

EDITOR'S INBOX: U.S. Agrees to Meeting with Iran and Syria, by David Ignatius, PostGlobal, February 26, 2007 9:12 PM

Excellent news. I think this comes about--like all things--from a variety of sources.

I really don't think the surge was designed to "win," per se, but to set up an endgame on Iraq that simultaneously--as the ISG advocated--drew Iran and Syria into some form of negotiations. By applying the pressure with financial sanctions, more ships, case pushed on Iranian involvement in Iraq, Saudi downward pressure on oil, Bush & Co. worked to regain some leverage on Iran, which they have. Done well, this conference can open the door for a North Korea-like temporizing of the Iranian problem in such a way that a broad regional dialogue (to include outside great powers) generates an OSCE-like standing forum for future cooperation, which would be ideal (last week's column).

Much will depend, of course, on whether we come to deal at this conference or just to accuse. Iran seems in both a good (external) and bad (internal) place with Bush and the Saudis trying to do unto Tehran (conflate sectarian conflicts) what Tehran did to us last summer with Hezbollah. Completely reprehensible unless...

Scary business by Bush, but if the set-up on the conference unfolds with some real dexterity on all sides (Saudis seem scared enough, so do Israel and Syria, Iran's feeling pressed, and the U.S. sees Iraq-the-project coming apart while Afghanistan/Pakistan are moving backwards), then Bush can salvage much historically with the Big Bang and Rice's great moment may finally have arrived.

This has been my fondest hope with these guys: that they'd get to the end of the second term, realize--as so many before them--that serious strategic imagination is called for if they want to make some lasting foreign policy legacy come about, and then bite the bullet on "not doing diplomacy" and make it happen.

Reagan did it, and so can Bush if he really wants (and if Cheney's influence is checked).

So a move like this, if it unfolds as hoped, can become a huge Deus ex machina-like rationale for Bush to say, "I was setting this up all along."

I don't think that's true. I honestly believe Bush has been planning for some time to have somebody strike Iran before Jan 2009. But because of the huge internal resistance such talk has engendered, he's increasingly wary of pursuing than--thus the reversal on the ISG's recommendations, which, if pursued well, let's Bush claim that was his intent all along.

And hey, if it works, then Bush does get to claim credit no matter the path, and that credit will soften much of the historical judgment of his takedown of Saddam.

A lot to hope for, no doubt, but as long as Bush's president you have to want him to succeed.

Like most people recently, I've been swinging back and forth on Bush, with my underlying theme being: "You're trashing the whole effort to date on the Big Bang by refusing to play the board you yourself set in motion!"

If Bush is now truly ready to play that board, out of a sense of growing frustration at the obstacles currently in his path (like domestic resistance, allies withdrawing, tide of anti-Americanism, disastrous strain on military and Iraq's de facto breaking up) and a new sense that there's presently a lot of other decently incentivized players likewise trapped within the board's dynamics, then we may be on the verge of something very big and very good for Bush, the region, the world, and our next president.

You can't overestimate the power of this dialogue, if done well, but that's a huge "if" that speaks primarily to this administration's capacity for very practical and realistic dealmaking. The Saudis, Israelis and Iranians are all--generally speaking--pretty practical types when push comes to shove. So all of Bush's threats--especially the overriding one of further mismanagement of Iraq--can work to his advantage here if he truly turns on this dime and makes something happen.

If pursued, this would be a transformative event with this crew, so I certainly hope they jump at it.

Pursued cynically, though, then this is merely the diplomatic set-up for war with Iran and Sy Hersh's scenarios seem more likely.

If the better path is taken, then I think democracy has succeeded--once again--in America.

Thanks to Jarrod Myrick for sending this.