ARTICLE: "The widening gulf: Amid Sunni fears of a growing 'Shia arc,l tensions between the main Muslim sects are widening, while some governments are exploiting them," The Economist, 3 February 2006, p. 45.
A classic sign, IMO, of a System Perturbation, is that governments use the cover of the incident for "score settling."
That's a serious possibility here. We push the anti-Iran alliance amidst the sectarian bloodletting in Iraq and we get crackdowns on Shiia throughout the region.
All this because of Iran's alleged amazing progress on enrichment that's now looking more and more hollow by the day, according to intell estimates.
Another way to look at it is that the real SP was directed at the White House (Nov. elections) and that this administration refuses to listen to that or the ISG report, so "enlarging the problem" is the retreat/diversionary method, with the most important horizontal scenario being the plan to leave Iraq, the rising sectarian violence in the region, the massive budget deficit et. al to the next administration.
The only positive upside on that one is that the price for renegotiated cooperation/alliance with the U.S. is reduced by half the minute anybody but Bush-Cheney sit in the White House. I think, much like the Carter-to-Reagan shift, there will be such relief abroad in seeing the isolated, much-despised president leave office that it'll be 50 percent off the top on everything. Why? Everyone will want a reasonable, deal-making America back.
To that end, the only candidates who worry me are Edwards and McCain. The former because his pandering in all directions will constrain him too much if elected (my guess, if he were to look good, Gore would pre-empt), the latter because he too confuses being stubborn with being resolute and because his view of potential allies is hopelessly stuck in the past.
As the article argues, sectarian violence is a "dangerous genie." By enlarging the problem, Bush is playing the Milosevic role here, and that is some very risky business.
But this is what this administration is forced to do given its failed execution in postwar Iraq and its don't-do-diplomacy ethos (making Rice the most irrelevant SECSTATE since Nixon's guy Rogers.
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Comments (2)
Partner stikes again: Russians agree to sell off the shelf nuke equip. (purported) to Saudis. Pakistan agreeing to missle transfer. Russia wins both fronts: arms/nuke power deals plus disintermediates US interests. Friends like that who needs enemies. Don't know what's worse, Bush incompetence/bumbling or the retrograde diplomacy first crowd..At least Bush had a new idea
Posted by konaman | February 16, 2007 9:44 AM
I used to think the coming civil war in the Muslim world would be between those that dispise the West, and those that may not like the West but want to do business with us.
Al Queda in Iraq led by Zarqawi declared their intent to cause a Sunni-Shea civil war in Iraq as a method of driving America out of Iraq. Is this the Genesis of the shift toward a regional secatarian civil war? Or, was this brewing all along?
Posted by M. Vasquez | February 16, 2007 10:47 AM