Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Back to you discuusion about Chambers Johnson , I am sorry to say that you both have it wrong. Starting with Rome, Johnson repeats oft-stated myth that Rome declined when the Republic became an Imperial State involved in endless wars. Factually, Augustus ruled from 31 BC to 14 AD. Rome lasted until 476 AD. Peace not war was the rule during that period. Rome’s form of government was essentially similar, almost from its onset. The Senate was the real power. There was one year, 69AD, when Rome had four Emperors. Prior to that it also had monsters, such as Nero and Caligula. (Succession was generally not determined by direct decadency, so Rome was never a monarchy. One method of succession was for the Emperor to pick someone and adopt him as his son and heir.)

Nevertheless, the remarkable stability of Rome was due to its systems. Roman citizens had rights, which the State recognized. The State had laws that were enforced in a due process and an equal protection manner. (Roman law BTW was the basis of England’s great contribution to mankind its Common Law.) It would be wise then to study Roman history in the development your SysAdmin program.

As for a coming military dictatorship here, I agree that this has little chance of happening. The military is burdened by its creed: Duty, Honor, and Country. How many officers do you know that habitually lie? Did not the real soldiers call for 500, 000 troops in Iraq in 2003? Honor is a tough one for a politician. A military officer takes an oath to defend the Constitution. The honorable take oaths seriously. If there is a coming dictatorship is will come not from the military but from the Intelligence Community. The IC has a different creed, which Helms told us tersely year’s back: “you just have to trust us”

If you look now at Iraq, the vision might be described as a Wilderness of Mirrors. It’s oddly not the usual occupiers vs. insurgents. Iraqi against Iraqi is purported scenario, but one could also see deliberate chaos. Why? The Money. It will never be proved but it seems apparent that war profiteer money is finding its way into hedge funds and private equity. This could be in the range of 50 to 100 billion dollars per year. Iraq thus bears the mark of the IC.

Right now Iran is going to be dragged into the fray. The shooting down of US helicopters is an escalation. The key is whether Iran has the technology to produce these weapons. Perhaps Iran has a sponsor to the North. If so, the likely result of the escalation is an even further escalation. Required reading now might be Barbara Tuchmans The Guns of August.

Rather than pursuing a course with possible catastrophic results, its time to sue for peace and bring the benefits of globalization to most of the world.

Another great column (which I read on-line in Knoxnews). It made me ponder the issue of the requirement for a moral ruleset for evolving democracies.

While I am not a disciple of Dr. Rick Warren (the author of The Purpose Driven Life), I have found that he has some good ideas in this area. I found Dr. Warren’s appearance on Meet the Press (Dec 24 2006, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16202841/ ) particularly interesting. He presented a “ruleset” for free markets. During the interview, he stated, “…I debated some leaders in China about this just a few years ago. We actually had a dinner in People’s Hall, and some of the Cabinet members had invited me to this dinner, and as we talked, I was—and you know the problem with China is you want to have the economic freedom of the West without the moral underpinnings of it. And I said, it isn’t going to happen, because there are three freedoms you have to have to have the success of the West. Number one is freedom of religion. It’s the First Amendment, OK, and the—freedom of religion. The second is the freedom of information and freedom of speech. And the third is freedom of markets. And what you’re trying to do is put freedom of markets into China without freedom of religion and freedom of information, and it isn’t going to work, because capitalism without either Judaism or Christianity or moral basis is pure greed. It is the moral basis beneath it that says, “Oh, I need to take care of my employees. I don’t just become a robber baron.” And when you take capitalism, as for instance, and put it into Russia without the moral basis, you get oligarches. You get a bunch of thugs who rip off the country as much as the communists did.”

The next two lines are important for the Secular Humanists in the world.
:MR. RUSSERT: Can you have a moral basis without organized religion?”
“DR. WARREN: Of course you can.”

The concept of a sysadm and free market capitalism (IMHO, the former naturally leads to the latter) must have a moral dimension. A “moral rule set” is required (IMHO) for the successful development of free markets. The Soviet Union and China (as Dr. Warren points out) are examples of the absence of a “moral rule set.” While I believe free markets are the natural outcome of your (Dr. Barnett’s) blueprint, I also believe the ruleset for the moral underpinnings of those free markets are critical. I’m assuming there’s a philosophical “meta-ruleset” (don’t hurt other people and don’t take their stuff). Once this “meta-ruleset” is established, I’m not fussy about the implementation issues (such as the religion of choice for a population).

Perhaps a topic worth exploring in your next book?

Capital Hill Blue too. The comments there prompted my post about comments yesterday.

J Canepa,
It can be argued that Rome lasted until 1453 AD. The Byzantines were considered Roman by themselves and their neighbors. It wasn't until long afterward that the term "Byzantine" was used to differentiate the Roman empire in the east from the Roman empire in the west that "fell" in 476 AD.

Common Law is a distinctly Anglo-Saxon tradition, not based on Roman law. It's one distinguishing feature that sets the Anglosphere apart from continental Europe, where law is still based on the Code of Justinian.

More on connectivity. The website of the US Department of the Treasury states that economic sanctions and embargoes are placed on many regions and governments in the world, including "Cuba, Cote d'Ivoire, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Sudan, Liberia, Zimbabwe, Sierra Leone, the UNITA faction in Angola, Syria and Burma [Myanmar] as well as other programs programs targeting individuals or entities that could be anywhere, currently, programs relating to foreign narcotics traffickers, foreign terrrorists, WMD proliferators, persons in the Western Balkans".

The US seems very disconnected for a Core nation.

Actually, the English Common Law does have its origins in Roman Law. Although today we tend to think of the Common Law as referring to "Judge-made law", as opposed to statutory law or codifications such as you have in most Continental legal systems, that was not the original meaning of the term. The Common Law referred to the system of law that was established by the Normans to be "common" to all of England. Following the Norman Conquest, the Plantagenet monarchs wanted to solidify their control over England by promulgating a code of laws, heavily influenced by Roman law, that would be followed in all English courts. This system of "Common Law" was in place by the 12th Century. Later, the term came to be associated with the concept of "Judge-made law" when Common Law Courts in England and Wales asserted their authority in opposition to the Courts of Equity that were established by the Tudors and their successors. The modern concept of an English Common Law was pretty well settled by the time of the American Revolution. As a result, England did not participate in the wave of codification that swept Continental Europe under Napoleon, which is when most European legal codes were enacted -- the fact that England stayed free of French domination at the time also helped.

Disconnected arguments not going to hold up: 27% of US economy connected to world, 3.2T/12T--> (exports+imports/GDP 2005) versus 15% 30 yrs. ago. Global economy growing by 5%/yr and we are basically adding a Taiwan to our GDP each year.

China will catch Mexico for the place spot soon enough (they like to save but want to spend). Consider the numbers with Europe as EU and individually: Germany (Eon) gives me my electricity.

Tarriff trend is down, down: US tarriff average 4% used to be huge; WTO pushing tarriffs down too. Don't let Lou Dobbs fight the invisible hand--resistance is futile.