Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

But it's like the chemo and the antibiotics both getting together and saying 'Hey cancer, our phased withdrawal will commence around or before September '08'.

"Approximate" is the key word here. As an ap-proximate measure, it doesn't actually get to the point, only near to the point where leverage would be possible.

So it's like telling the antibiotics, "Just clear the inflamation caused by the tumor in the lower half of the left lung; the other tumors throughout the body will get the idea and scram."

My guess is that the concentration will be directed against the Shite militas.

The goal is a return to the status quo ante. There is no other viable alternative.

Again with the ISG report? Maybe I'm missing something but the ISG report suggested that in order to solve the Iraq conflict, we needed to address the whole ME issue, which would naturally include the Israeli/Palestinian issue. Well. Leave it to a bunch of retired Washington politicians to frame the issue in manageable elements! I think that philosophy perfectly adheres to the Washington group think which believes, "if you can't solve the problem, make it even bigger. That way, no one will know what you tried to do in the first place."

That the ISG report futher suggested the conference should be attended by all the major ME players EXCEPT Israel should have discredited it before it even hit the printers. Remember that one of the key authors of this "study" was one who once said, "F__k the Jews. They don't vote for us anyway." The ISG recommendation for a regional conference was a thinly veiled suggestion to sell out Israel in the hopes of currying favor with the latest generation of ME tyrants.

Israel can be criticized for many things, and I'm as realistic as the next guy when it comes to dealing with geopolitical realities. But there are some things that transcend realpolitik, or connectivity or even peace. We have an absolute moral obligation to actively and unquestionably support the ONLY representative democracy in the entire ME cesspool. Israel, for all its faults, is an island of democracy amidst murderous thugs and religious fanatics. The soul of our nation will stand forever cursed if we abandon this ally in some misguided "peace in our time" effort. It's like no one even remembers Czechoslovakia.

I don't see how the ISG report represented a gift to Bush, unless by gift you mean an opportunity to kick the can down the road.

Good question though as to whether the success of the surge it lasts beyond where we station troops. But since 80% of the violence in Iraq takes place in Bagdhad, it seems the logical place to start no?