Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Well, "fiercely secular" in the sense "more secular than democratic or civilian," yes.

I'm naturally sympathetic toward Turkey, but I don't think she belongs in Europe.

Considering the EU's homegrown and increasing radical Muslim minority, the irrational fear of Turkey is like the homeowner sniffing at a neighbor's color of housepaint while his own house is being eaten by termites. Turkey's secular government is a rarity in today's world of increasingly rabid Islamic fascism and is a relationship that should be nurtured. Ignoring her might consign her to fate of other formerly secular Muslim nations like Iran and Afganistan. It will be interesting to see how Turkey handles the perhaps inevitable independence of Iraqi Kurdistan given its own population of restive Kurds.

Dan,

Like Hanson, I think you're too observant of friction and not of force (the former being primary a function of the latter, but hardly its master). It's very seductive and seems very perceptive in historical terms (hence the appeal to historians), but it's a trap of immense proportions in terms of solid strategic thinking (live in the world you find yourself in, because these are revolutionary times).

On another scale, Americans have a tendency to see water as a barrier, but in the rest of the world, the tendency is just the opposite. It's a real problem with the Unified Command Plan, because it's so ground forces in its mentality.

Hm. Turkey is going to be very, very critical in the next two decades or so. More or less any version of Kurdistan is going to put an enormous amount of pressure on Turkish unity and EU membership might be just the kind of binding tie to stay the hand of an inappropriately harsh military response.

Heck, you could just offer the new Kurdish state (if it comes out that way) EU membership as well, let them have a paper-thin border between the two nations, and have peace that way.

"they say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one...."

(although, in this case, I could well be accused of outright fantasy.)

No Vinay,

You're not the only one. Your thought on Kurdistan was mine as well. Just too visionary for this piece though.

I have had several conversations with a few of my colleagues about allowing Turkey into the EU. They do not agree with me that the EU should go ahead and allow Turkey to become a member. I think that would be an excellent move -- strategically, Turkey is in a very important geographic location, as Tom pointed out in this column.

Paul Kennedy's book on the key countries to analysis of the 21st Century political/military scence pinpointed Turkey as one of the key countries. He really covered the ground in his analysis. As some wit stated the only real middle eastern countries are Turkey, Iran and Egypt. This century will sort out whether there are others also.

Tom,

I blogged a response, but here's the short of it: wouldn't the stress to the European system from large-scale Turkish immigration easily exceed the stress from an attack on Iran?

Tom, as a Turkish native I loved your article. It's about time someone recognized the Turkish factor. I think you are right on the money when you say that Turks may be holding the key for the US departure from Iraq. It is amazing to me to see how we consult with the England about the Middle East but not usually with Turkey. As you know, English might have been there for 50 years at the most, but Turks ruled it for 500 years plus!

Just as amazing to me is how no one seems to be aware of the relationship between Turkey and the Turkic states of Central Asia with 250 million plus and growing! With lots of oil & natural gas resources!!! As many Turks often say, Europe needs Turkey, but Turkey doesn't need Europe! By the time Europeans make up their mind, it might be too late...for them!