ARTICLE: Shi'ite cleric gains sway across border, By Anne Barnard, Boston Globe, May 14, 2007
Brilliant piece I've been waiting for someone qualified to write, supporting my long-held and oft-stated notion that Shiia Iraq will change Shiia Iran far more than the latter can control the former. As I've said more than once, Shiia Iraq can play Poland to Iran's Russia: the conduit for change and innovation and new ideas from outside.
The more Iraq opens up, the scarier it gets to Iran, and yet Iran wants Iraq stable and reasonably whole too (see Kurdistan as well), so it sits between a rock and a ... Sorry, that one's been beaten to death.
No matter how Iraq goes down, Iran expects and demands a big seat at the table. Bush won't provide because of a prior commitment (the whole Axis-of-Evil telegraphing of strategic intent from the talk-but-don't-do school of bully diplomacy), so we sit in stalemate.
But my point remains: Iran's got more to fear than we do, so the sooner we lock them into an Iraq solution, the sooner we get our changed regime in Iran.
Can't start that journey sitting on our asses.
Thanks to Tyler Durden for sending this.
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Comments (2)
When I first read the title of your post I thought you meant something else. For one brief moment in history Poland meant a thing to Russia it had never meant before, assisted by the rarity of a Polish Pope. I thought you were referring to all the other times when Poland gets subjugated by Russia; seeing as how that is more the norm.
Posted by Jim S | May 14, 2007 4:01 PM
No, I was referring to all the times in past history when Poland was a conduit for Western ideas heading into Russia, going back hundreds of years.
Posted by Tom Barnett | May 15, 2007 11:40 AM