ARTICLE: "America the Fertile," by Nicholas Eberstadt, Washington Post, 6 May 2007, p. B7.
Great piece on what keeps America so exceptional. This theme was a big one in Stuart Varney's opening keynote at a Richmond Events CIO conference where I speak today as the other keynoter. Varney bragged about being both an immigrant and father of six. I may someday lay claim to six kids, and at least half will be immigrants. So I guess it works either way. Other than that, I'd just like Stuart's bank account (when he took over "Moneyline," CNN made him sell all his stocks--just before the tech crash).
Big point of this piece: the US moves dramatically away from rest of Old Core, or West, first and foremost in demographics (which, as Varney pointed out. keeps us young and accepting of change). We just keep adding people (immigration) and having babies (not just immigrants, but our core stock of "Anglos" or "whites" are much higher in fertility than Europe or Japan).
By 2025, Eberstadt points out, Europe will be shrinking and we'll still be adding almost 3m a year. We'll have the highest growth rate then among developed countries and sport one of the lowest median ages. We'll also be the only sizable developed country where the kids still outnumber seniors.
The kicker:
Such trends might reinforce U.S. international prominence--even though the divergence in demographic profiles between the United States and the other developed countries may also portend an era of diminishing affinities between the United States and its historical Western allies.
Bingo!
Another guy connects the dots on that one.
So with whom does America align itself in this frontier age of globalization?
You know the answer.
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Comments (3)
Interesting insight from Foreign Affairs this month on the same topic. Article is Healthy Old Europe by Nicholas Eberstadt and Hans Groth. I have the hardcopy, so can only link to a preview. In a nutshell, they note "The population of western Europe is aging steadily, and the region's birthrate is well below the replacement level, but Europe's elderly are exceptionally healthy. That means they could be more productive for longer than their predecessors were. If western European governments learn to tap this potential, healthy aging could become the region's next great economic asset." It seems Europeans are living longer and retiring earlier, Americans are living longer and retiring later. What is the trend in China? Places like Vietnam or Malaysia?
Posted by TEJ | May 8, 2007 8:05 AM
Here's a more granular analysis of where those horny Americans are breeding according to Michael Barrone:
The Realignment of America
Posted by Mark in Texas | May 9, 2007 1:12 AM
Immigrants aren't randomly selected from their host populations, but (historically at least) seem to be genetically different. Both "Native Americans" and "European Americans" are different on the D4D4 allele that correlates with novelty-seeking. So the benefits of immigration may not be just one-off, but continually drain the "best and the brightest" from everywhere else.
Posted by dan tdaxp![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/nav-commenters.gif)
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May 12, 2007 6:52 PM