OP-ED: "Russian Roulette on Iran: Why Moscow is making a U.S. military strike more likely," by Michael Rubin, Wall Street Journal, 3 October 2007, p. A18.ARTICLE: "U.S. Is Top Arms Seller to Developing World," by Thom Shanker, New York Times, 1 October 2007, p. A8.
Rubin's piece is a glorious little bit of sophistry, with a lack of self-awareness that seems to afflict all U.S. criticism over New Core pillars' intransigence over a possible U.S. military strike against Iran.
The very notion that Russia could do anything to make an attack more likely is a bit much, but Rubin doesn't stop there, accusing Putin of being too much of a realist! And eschewing multilateralism no less!
Because other great powers don't compromise enough in Bush-Cheney's sale on strikes, they naturally prove the folly of multilateralism.
Putin is accused of secretly wanting a strike so he can sell Iran more arms and benefit from higher oil prices.
Sure, both outcomes happen if this administration pulls the trigger, but blaming the trigger-pull on Moscow's evil machinations is fairly laughable after Bush takes down Iraq without bothering to get much buy-in from Russia, only to help drive up oil prices in the process and then lavishing regional allies with $20B in arms sales, keeping USA #1 on arms transfers to the Gap, arming countries to Iran's right and left after invading countries to Iran's right and left.
Russia sells $700 million in surface-to-air defensive missiles but is "deterred," according to the Congressional Research Service, from making a host of other sales "that could be viewed as overly provocative."
America, naturally, has no such worries as it outpaces Russia's sales last year, $10B to its $8B.
As the report notes, "the United States has signed weapons-sales agreements with nations whose records on democracy and human rights are subject to official criticism."
Ah, but my Arab-state-sponsoring-terrorist-dictatorship is better than yours!
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Comments (3)
If Russia arms Iran, and Iran uses those arms to kill US soldiers in Iraq and sow chaos, then that raises the possibility that the US will strike at Iran.
Furthermore, as long as there is chaos in Iran and Iraq, the price of oil will stay high. That's good for Putin and his Cronies.
If the price of oil dives, Putin's regime is over. At least in Kasparov's estimate.
Buy-in from Russia on Iraq? Russia was the top beneficiary of the Oil for Food scam. Why would they buy in? Not to mention that the Russian Orthodox Church was also a beneficiary... an organization widely known to be KGB headed.
Thus we get wonderful anti-US propaganda stuff coming out of Moscow in the lead up, Achalov and Maltsev's visit on the eve of war, Teterenko passing US plans to Baghdad, and with the WMD puzzle we get to entertain the possibility of a Sarindar type operation...
especially after this wonderful item from 2003 "On 26 March, Russia expressed concern that Washington could fabricate evidence of Iraq allegedly hiding its weapons of mass destruction in an effort to justify the US-led attack on Baghdad. Speaking before the Federation Council (Russian Upper House) on 26 March Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov cautioned Washington and London that Moscow is not going to trust their claims of finding evidence of WMD in Iraq."
Now, why would they say that only 6 days into the war, while the WMD search was still hot?
Would this make the reports (that came out the day before) of a convoy of trucks moving out of Iraq into the Bakaa, more or less credible?
If I were conspiratorially minded, I might think the Russians were somehow involved in an attempt to destroy US credibility using the Iraq WMD question. Something like a bait and switch.
I realize this paints me as a crazy mossad-hacked neocon. Certainly I cannot be sure of any of these theories. I merely point out that Russia continues to play hardball on the oil question, as they always have.
Posted by kev fors | October 14, 2007 8:05 PM
I'm waiting to see what tdaxp Dan says to this. He's run his own post similar to that of Rubin in the past.
Russia would benefit from high crude prices, but I have a hard time believing Putin would manipulate things, costing thousands their lives, simply to make a few more millions. He's not Kartman Jong-Il after all.
The geo-political power gain from seeing the US tied down by another ME instead of Central Asian concern? Don't know. I'd buy that a whole faster than I would the money from oil or arms sales though.
Posted by ry | October 14, 2007 10:22 PM
we all know Russia has been milking both Iran and US for what is worth.but this time,it is not about Iran, it is about missle plan in east
Europe,and causing the threat to russian defence stradegy,and also working the east European countries in order to tighten the circle around russia in a long stradegy game with China.i think Putin is saying enough is enough.
Posted by farhad | October 15, 2007 3:37 PM