The flu season we should all dreadThe White House recently released its new homeland security strategy and, unlike the initial 2002 version, this one focuses far more on natural disasters as opposed to terrorist strikes. That's a welcome change not simply because Hurricane Katrina was a humbling experience, but because globalization's growing connectivity means a naturally occurring pandemic is the most likely mega-disaster we'll face in the near term.
Undoubtedly you've heard about avian flu: long endemic to birds in Southeast Asia, it's gone global over the last half decade. As it spreads, the virus subtype known as H5N1 naturally mutates, leading researchers to conclude it's only a matter of time before human-to-human transmission emerges. Among humans who have so far contracted the virus through extensive contact with infected birds, over half died.
Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.
Tom writes:
This one was obvously generated by a briefing I got at Oak Ridge. I always wanted to use the HK airport story somewhere, so that was cool.Having watched "28 Weeks Later" recently with Vonne, I regret not working it "28 days later" somewhere in the text, like I did last time. There was an obvious spot to do so.
Here's my question on the last sentence:
I just know it's important that our Department of Homeland Security think through all realistic scenarios and gear up for the real-world tests that inevitably lie ahead.Did I screw the verb agreement or was I operating in some other realm, like an implied "to think" and "to gear"? Felt right but looks weird on page.

Comments (3)
DHS can talk, but CDC's Division of Global Health & Migration, rescued with 'terrorism dollars' from a lingering programmatic death, is where this chicken comes home to roost (sorry about the pun). They can only hope to slow it down, as the relevant rule set (International Health Regulations) are no match for today's connectivity, even with the recent re-write. Scary thing is, until the post-SARS revision, we were still playing with a 1950's IHR - when more passengers travelled by ship than plane. Thank goodness for some real smart people in Hong Kong, who've saved our bacon a few times over.
Posted by TEJ | October 14, 2007 7:11 PM
The 50% mortality figure cited is highly unlikely to be true. This is 50% of the people who present and are confirmed with the disease. Most likely many people either a) showed no symptoms or b) were mildly ill for a few days and got better.
I'm not saying this isn't a serious concern, but the 50% mortality figure bandied about doesn't have a solid scientific base.
Posted by jim | October 14, 2007 10:17 PM
Jim
Agreed. Perhaps we'd all do weel to keep two things in mind:
1. 50% mortality among those who are sick enough to present at hospital, which is a subset of those who are sick, which is a subsent of those who are infected, which is a subset of those who are exposed
2. past results are no guarantee of future performance (cuts both ways)
Posted by TEJ
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October 15, 2007 7:40 AM