CONFERENCE: The Next Space Race:Competition or Cooperation? Global Space Development Summit, 23 April 2008 - 25 April 2008, Beijing, ChinaSponsored by: Co-organized by: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Chinese Society of Astronautics (CSA)
Boy, it'd be nice to see some serious cooperation and coordination here rather than some back-to-the-future on the 1960s.
Perhaps yet another reason to move beyond the Boomers?
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Comments (2)
I think what we'll see is neither/nor for humans in space. No recognizable space race between governments and no collaboration among entities larger than universities. Only big institutes of learning have an incentive to explore space today. Look at where the processing and control of the Mars rovers is done. More and more of the space probes are run that way or being planned that way today as well.
I have a hard time believing any real popular excitement will be generated, even in Asia, until we start talking about the first person to set foot on Mars. The Moon race borrowed momentum and passion from the Cold War. There's no equivalent mighty struggle between major powers today. Terrorism is an open source backlash to globalization and lots of people are willing and able to ignore it, especially if they are benefiting monetarily. If I'm correct then even the first manned Mars mission will fall short of the U.S./Soviet Moon Race for cultural impact and hype generation.
In my opinion this is not a bad thing. Sustainable space colonization is best achieved on a "New Polynesians" model. Handfuls of self financing individuals (>150 in any single group) co-opt initial outposts built by coalitions of universities (and the remaining grad student/pioneers) for lifetime stays and slowly grow their own societies.
Going out on a limb, I'll predict that big government will be an Earth only phenomenon for roughly another thousand years, if not forever. The Outer Space Treaty locked those dogs in this gravity well for an eternal cage match. Greed and bureaucratic inertia will keep the gate closed.
Posted by Jim Nutley | November 22, 2007 10:13 AM
Another consideration: China has more to gain from cooperating with us in space than competing.
Cooperate, and we can build orbital solar power satellites or power transfer systems (along with sharing surveillance data, communications and positioning systems, etc).
Compete, and we risk losing both our orbital infrastructures in a war with one another, or being unable to deal with a third party trying to trash the same.
Posted by Michael | November 25, 2007 1:51 AM