Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Post Iraq.

Step 1 is out of the question. UN indictment of any State is unlikely, if not impossible. The current SysAdmin apparatus is worse than useless. Under current world financial conditions (stare at the cover of the 11/17/07 of the Economist), another Leviathan use against a prostrate foe will only accelerate the demise of the US as a world power. There is no other State available to finance an overly aggressive US and we can’t do ourselves

Forget the six steps, which seems to be a thinly disguised Shock Doctrine.

Take the path to peace and put the US is the lead in the task.

Does it HAVE to be the UN? What if it was a regional gathering with some moral authority over the rogue in question? Ex: the AU with Sudan or ASEAN with Burma. Making them the authority in charge also opens the possibility of bringing in other nations who're better equipped for the sysadmin task than we are.

but the UN's good at indicting people, Michael. they indicted Iraq a lot.

and that doesn't make them the 'authority', just part of the process. the G20 is much more the 'authority' in regard to the SysAdmin.

the AU has moral authority?

Call it keeping options open. Sometimes the UN's up for doing its job, sometimes it just wants to be a talk shop. If the UN doesn't want to bother looking at the case file for a miscreant government, you bring it before the regional authority that country pays lip service to.

Put it another way, if Sudan fended off UN intervention- only to find its fellow AU members debating whether to allow the US and China to attack- what options do they have left? Cry "UN, the rest of my continent is picking on me!"?

The US military Leviathan will only be used with United Nations approval? In that case Iran seems safe.

Recent history

no, IJ. indicting a country is not the same as approving the use of force. witness Iraq.

Thanks Sean.

From a previous entry here I see from the interview that Congressman Tom Feeney had difficulty with UN 'control' of the Leviathan. He questioned whether the US should obey the UN if it again indicted Israel.

Moreover TPMB emphasised that the UN agency, the IAEA, had attracted widespread legitimacy being awarded two Nobels; this made me think that Iran was safe if the IAEA gave it a good report.

thanks, IJ.

apparently this concept is confusing for many people who haven't heard Tom say it over and over and over ;-)

Tom wants international legitimacy where we can get it: the UN, the IAEA, the latest climate control study (i forget the letters right this minute), the ICC. but that does not equal control.