OP-ED: "Why Al-Qaeda Is Losing," by Gary Anderson, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 21-27 January 2008, p. 31.SPECIAL REPORT: "The Culture Warriors: The Pentagon deploys social scientists to help understand Iraq's 'human terrain,'" by Anne Mulrine, U.S. News & World Report, 10 December 2007, p. 34.
Nice piece by Anderson (always sharp) that says al Qaeda's foreign-body reality always ends up being rejected by the host because its brutality creates an antibody response (locals get fed up and eject).
This is important to remember as we credit the surge with "winning the war" (Fareed's point recently): our change in tactics (getting out and about, cutting deals) took advantage of that, with the numbers helping somewhat but not decisively. As the Sunnis simultaneously gave up hope of reunifying Iraq by restoring dominating over the Shiia, we got a much quieter Sunni population in the bargain, thus essentially sealing Iraq's soft partition. Question now is how long must we stay and how many bodies required to stave off any resumption of sectarian violence.
The how long question is a depressing one, given the recent events in Lebanon, so the need to upgrade our "human terrain" knowledge is crucial to avoiding future screw-ups. As for making a better future, no amount of anthropology will do, because there you're into economic development, and God help you if you take the advice of anthropologists on that one.
So, having basically dealt with the great cause celebre of al Qaeda (Iraq), we're back to that very Balkans-like babysitting job, with long-term economic integration being the main job, even more important than illusory reconciliation, which will go nowhere in the zero-sum environment that is non-Kurdish Iraq's continuing great depression.
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Comments (5)
Could it be that production of deployed linguists has improved? Helps if you can talk to those you are purporting to help! Where are those statistics published by the way? Both for armed forces, DOD civilians, contractors, and of course the STATE dept. and its minions and contractors. Bet far more Iraqi nationals speak english than the reverse as listed above.
Maybe in the next premptive war we will be prepared.
Posted by William R. Cumming | February 6, 2008 8:48 AM
Tactics and techniques are necessary, but they will not be sufficient without strategy. Iran and Pakistan are realistic strategic objectives. If they embrace new core thinking and practices, then Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and many of the 'Stans' will become more settled. How come I never see these ideas discussed in the political and media virtual reality sessions? Decades ago Russia and China were the main obstacles. I don't think the same is true since they made realistic prosperity a higher objective.
Posted by Louis Heberlein | February 6, 2008 12:51 PM
"Human Terrain Knowledge". Very important in police work. Much of what our guys on the ground are doing over there is a lot like police work. If you see terrorists as criminals, not as soldiers, it makes sense. Here is a story from the ghetto. A well meaning group of businessmen got involved in a "Sponsor a School" program. Young executives from several sponsoring companies visited a grammar school in the ghetto. They were told about the problems facing teachers and students in that environment. Violence, drugs, poverty, apathy, etc. So the execs went back to their suburban offices and after a committee meeting they came up with an idea. They had baseball caps made with the motto "Say No to Drugs" embroidered on the front. They returned to the school and presented all the boys (don't know why the girls were left out) with the brand new caps. The kids were delighted and when school let out the neighborhood was filled with 1st through 8th graders wearing brand new hats with the inspiring motto.
Within 24 hours, not one kid had a hat. Instead each kid had a twenty dollar bill. The drug dealers had bought all the hats. They did not threaten anyone, they did not force anyone. They just offered the princely sum of twenty bucks. I heard of one stubborn 1st grader who held out till his mother intervened and the drug dealer gave her a fifty. The next night I drive past a drug house with some of my guys. There were five gang-bangers in front, all wearing the "Say No to Drugs" hats. We started laughing and then they started laughing. We all had a good laugh.
The moral, I guess, is that we can waste a lot of time and money over there if we don't know the ghetto.
Posted by Ted O'Connor | February 6, 2008 3:38 PM
Self-reference is one of the things primatologists and anthropologists see as proof of the existence of the high levels of intelligence.
What I'm wondering about is Gary Anderson's forgetting the brutality of the US Occupation forces. If Al Qaeda fi Iraq is a foreign body in Iraq and its brutality eventually forces the host - the Iraqi population - to reject it, what is the expected response to the routine brutality of Blackwater, the countless bombing raids on civilian targets, etc?
Self-reference - the ability to see oneself in the mirror and recognize one's own identity: not a given with the lesser primates - is an essential part of higher intelligence functioning. What excuse does Gary Anderson have?
Posted by Wesley Parish | February 7, 2008 6:48 AM
Also useful for schools; the Principle in this NYT article I just found is former military intelligence.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/08/nyregion/08principal.html?em&ex=1202619600&en=7eeb11422452819e&ei=5087%0A
Posted by Michael
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February 8, 2008 10:30 PM