Spoke with journalist Tom Slear about the future of education and training inside the military. It was a good discussion because his questions pushed me into stuff I'd never considered.
For instance, it's amazing how much time in an officer's career, as they move up, they waste on acquisitions and everything that goes with it. It's completely supply-side economics thinking, when the skills you need for the econ parts of COIN and post-conflict are figuring out how to stimulate demand (you get things going by stimulating demand that locals can meet themselves, NOT by supplying them your stuff and thus atrophying local capabilities), not how to run the world's last great centrally-planned economy (unless Raul gets truly stubborn!).
Similarly, it's weird how aid people are really good at making aid happen, but that too is so supply-oriented.
Both officers and your classic aid official are thus, way too supply-oriented, when the entrepreneur--their dream date--is totally opposite: all he cares about is spotting demands and then meeting them (What can I get you?).
You put these two cultures together and you're going to create a local economy? Doesn't that seem like a weird team to build?
Training is algorithm, education is a genetic algorithm. Leviathan is algorithm, SysAdmin is a genetic algorithm.
The former is a set series of steps that yields an outcome--bake a cake!
The latter is the same, with the capability of sense-think-respond: I'm mixing my cake but decide to put in butter instead of margarine, so my cookbook dynamically rearranges the remaining steps in the recipe to account for change, instructs oven to do same, also cake wrapper maker and wrapping machine, also refrig truck en route, and likewise the store, where the price is automatically altered. Next day I accidentally put in botulism too, and the genetic algorithm makes a completely different response, spoiling my dreams of a terrorist strike. And so on and so on.
Algorithm is vertical smart. Genetic algorithm is horizontal smart--and scary smart too!
Enterra is scary smart tooooooo!
Wrote 4600 words today, almost getting through the end of point 6. That and step 7 of chapter 7 wait for tomorrow. Chapter now up to 15,231.
Book total now sets at 101,810.
I continue to slack a bit on sched. Thinking I'm done with first draft somewhere 15-20 April. Trying to hold off all new speaking offers til then (the short-term notice ones). Mark starts taking pencil to manuscript this weekend. We remain committed to getting the bulk edited by 1 June for delivery to Neil.
Watched "No Country for Old Men" last night. That really was pure Coen. Tommie Lee Jones should have nominated for that film. So should have Babs' stepson.
Finished my weekend column today. Let a bit bleed into the blog.
Comments (2)
Supply side economics does not mean physical supply of goods to people and then just waiting for something to happen; that would actually more closely resemble a demand-side stimulus. Supply side economics is closer to a sort of institutional economics; it's all about placing the incentives right. Surely in the military, a most centrally planned part of an already centrally planned entity - the government - could use a better incentive structure. Most of the non-developed world completely lacks the right incentive structure, for the obvious reasons. A religion, culture, history etc. that has focused not on preserving the rights of the individual and encouraging creativity and entrepreneurialism , but tribal, governmental and religious inhibitions on freedom.
Since we barely know how this incentive structure emerged in the West, our ability to cause this change in a short timespan in countries like Iraq seems overambitious. Perhaps a society rebuilding off the profits of a well-managed government oil company could be the bridge from oppression to freedom.
Posted by a young curmudgeon | March 13, 2008 3:00 AM
Fantastic post, and I'm looking forward to a link of the interview someday, too. Everything you have to say, Mr. Barnett, is brilliant.
Posted by lehmkuhlke | March 13, 2008 12:03 PM