Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Petraeus has ambition beyond this post, in my opinion, and this is good. It makes him consider more than just a military legacy. It will be interesting to see what he brings to bear in Afghanistan and Pakistan now that he's responsible for those in addition to Iraq. The more neighbors you're responsible for, the more you begin to see how Iran can either make or break you.

Gates remains sensible on Iran. There were several other possibilities, this is one of the better ones.

With Petraeus and Crocker making Iran the main problem in Iraq, we now have a consistent bad cop storyline coming out of DoD. Now the question will be, Where is there any good cop on Iran? If none is to be found, then the consistent bad cop storyline serves no purpose except to lay the groundwork for attack, because unless we're going to recognize Iran's interests, Tehran's going to continue to make us bleed. We can, of course, expand the bleeding. Then again, so can Tehran.

This promotion makes me a bit more nervous if McCain wins, but it makes me a lot more confident if Obama wins. While Petraeus might not be a strong enough roadblock on McCain (then again, who would be?), he's a solid anchor for Obama, meaning it would be impossible for him to do something rash either in Iraq or Pakistan.

But overall, good for the military change process and good for the COIN vector. If Petraeus goes from CENTCOM to the CJCS, which many will now anticipate all the more, depending on his perceived success in this post, then he logically ends up as the pivotal player in military's post-9/11 evolution, eclipsing Schoomaker and Rumsfeld by a ways. His career trajectory thus contradicting the "one-off" school of thought on Iraq