Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Also, "Lt. Col. Scott Custer" can't be a direct descendant of Little Big Horn George Custer since that Custer had no children.

I think his opening point is, since: A) success (goal of a working nation w/ a rule of law) is the only option, B) some current methods have been successful, C) those methods require a strong NATO/US component, and D) those methods are slow and laborious---that success is going to take a long time; longer than is commonly realized.

His prediction is that this will be our longest war. This is based on the fact that we are seven years involved and have extended our success only over a minority fraction of the geography.

It seems a reasonable enough prediction, and I don’t see him making any argument against its utility. Absent a change of method, is a successful situation in Afghanistan within eight years a reasonable expectation?

We also entered the Philippines with an apparently easy victory over Spanish forces, and erroneously expected to be warmly welcomed as mentors of modernization and democracy. Instead we became enmeshed in long suppressed regional and tribal conflicts, and became identified as the latest intrusive outsiders in Philippines' affairs.

We did learn a lot about military and social methods that could work in those situations. Then, the WWII return of an earlier and harsher group of Japanese outsiders moved American and Philippine interests closer, and the Cold War sustained that relationship.

When the American influence role was lowered after the Cold War, the Philippines experienced a combination of problems from corruption and new regional and tribal like conflicts. The global Islamic terror associations made the Philippines a key target. We still provide special military and political assistance to their government to deal with those conflicts.

So: "It ain't over till it's over!"

Wouldn't be so bad if he at least mentioned possible solutions for the problems he brought up. Does that mean he can't think of any, or that the solutions he can think of would be political dynamite?

Since the only solutions I can think of are helping the tribes police themselves (reducing the role of the national police to reinforcements of last resort) and switching sides in the war on drugs, I'm guessing the latter.

Holbrooke in part”

“The massive, officially sanctioned corruption and the drug trade are the most serious problems the country faces, and they offer the Taliban its only exploitable opportunity to gain support.”

My recollection was that the Taliban stopped the opium trade when it had power.

In business, distribution weighs heavily.

Anyone in their right mind claiming that the Taliban is working with opium distributors here or in Europe?

Hard to fight a war when the real enemy is not identified.

No one is going to give away the solution. Microsoft motto: If you know how to do something never give it away, use it at the right time to gain success.

A classmate of my father came to visit us when he retired from the Army in the late fifties. He had joined just after graduation from H. S. in 1937 and was stationed in the Philippines before the war. He described it as more than a little hostile at that time.

A classmate of my father came to visit us when he retired from the Army in the late fifties. He had joined just after graduation from H. S. in 1937 and was stationed in the Philippines before the war. He described it as more than a little hostile at that time.