Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Interesting on how domestic subsidies for the 1984, 1996 Summer Games here and of course the Winter Games that made Mitt Romney's political career possible have never been fully documented. What is of course documented is that the 1972 Munich Games indelibly marked the role of TV and media and terrorism. China has a long memory so even the security arrangements will be of interest and will give real insight into the current status of the civil control systems and structures in China. What is also interesting is there is not much acadmic policy discussion available as to the Carter embargo of the 1980 MOSCOW games. Bottom line is that Olympics are part of Globalization and an interesting part. With 16% of Chinese GDP going to Walmart will be interesting to see their corporate posture.

prediction: Wal-Mart will try to keep as a low a profile as possible and keep taking the money

This is a great point, not to demonize China. But for the US, like most individuals in decline, it's normal to look for someone to blame and play the role of the victim. More important, though, is for the US to take responsibility for how our actions have created a world in which China can be seen as the demon. We can use China's rise as motivation to remain the world leader in innovation, to become fiscally responsible and behave in a way in which we can maintain our moral authority so we can speak out against Chinese human rights violations. China at this point is the unwitting benefactor of our own inattentiveness. But we can learn from the current situation and improve on what is already the greatest nation in the world.

Barnett has effectively diffused China as a rising near peer military advisary in the minds of many of us familiar with Tom's work, because our economies are already so interwoven. Consequently it is hard to imagine any war between the US and China - our economic futures are already a partnership cemented by commerce.

But we have a common enemy attempting to remain non-integrated - the radical jihadists. In my mind, Barnett paints a picture of China becoming the Great Satan with women's rights - as America wanes in economic influence. China will become more involved in Middle East affairs to protect her oil supplies with little choice about it.

It seems that China and other nations will provide the System Administration force with America becoming the gun for hire, needed less often. With our military stretched, other nations will be forced to step up. So the rhetoric about China being bad actors with human rights abuses will be just talk, talk, talk with little effect from US. The rising Chinese middle class will demand more freedoms at home. Freedoms will evolve there too.

Who will deal with a nuclear Iran? It looks less and less like it will be America in this political climate. Even if Iran hit targets in D.C., covertly - via proxies - what president could prove it to respond militarily, in this political climate?

It is hard to imagine how we will do much more than try to protect the homeland, from home.

We may already have, effectively, neutered ourselves militarily just as the peace nik and isolationist groups intended to do.

Defeat in Iraq is still unthinkable but maybe that is only emotional. Our influence clearly seems to be waning, unless we solve the world's energy and food crisis suddenly. Internal regulations seem to restrict even that potential progress (i.e. no nukes, save the snails, carbon caps, etc.).

“I mean, it's a neat trick to brand the upcoming Games a "genocide Olympics," but what exactly is America doing to stop the killing besides preaching? If we don't have the troops, why not pay Blackwater to mount a Janjaweed-be-gone intervention?”

Great solution if we can resolve the image problem and what Tanya cook describes as their accountability issues in her paper Dogs of War or Tomorrow's Peacekeepers?: The Role of Mercenaries in the Future Management of Conflict.

If we can diminish the modern prejudices that company the term mercenary and look at it in a more historical context than we may be able to begin to utilise, more fully, the resources of private companies. Tie up the loose ends about accountability and ROE and we may have at our disposal a ready force willing to commit to peacekeeping and stability operations in areas that we either haven’t the interest in or the resources to act on our interest.

http://epublications.bond.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1079&context=cm

Quote from DK, "But for the US, like most individuals in decline, it's normal to look for someone to blame and play the role of the victim."

I don't se the US in decline. While we are not without our challenges, decline is a strong assessment. In many ways, I believe it is an excuse for not trying to do better. The thought being, "Oh heck, we in decline anyway so why bother." The fact is the US and our culture is exceptional and getting more exceptional everyday.