Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

ARTICLE: "The Economics of Hunger: A brutal convergence of events has hit an unprepared global market," by Anthony Faiola, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 5-11 May 2008, p. 6.

ARTICLE: "In Mauritania, Evey Meal Becomes a Sacrifice," by Anthony Faiola, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 5-11 May 2008, p. 9.

Graphic: The Global Grain Trade: The Haves and Have-nots

North America and former Soviet Union (FSU), South America and Oz/NZ are the big exporters:

-->NA imports 25m metric tons and sends out 130 (105 up)

-->FSU does 7 in and 28 out (21 up)

-->South America does 24 in and 42 out (18 up)

-->Oz/NZ does 1 in and 10 out (9 up)

Inward zones are:

-->East Asia takes 47 in and sends 5 out (42 down)

-->Middle East takes in 33 and sends out 3 (30 down)

-->North Africa takes in 30 and sends out 1 (29 down)

-->Sub-Saharan Africa takes in 20 and sends out 3 (17 down)

-->Europe takes 26 in and sends 15 out (11 down)

-->Southeast Asia takes in 20 and sends out 15 (5 down).

India just barely balances for now: takes in 7.5 and sends out 7.9, but India's ag production predicted to drop a large amount due to global warming.

So four big export hubs (North America, South America, FSU and Oz/NZ). Of those, NA and FSU likely to do best (meaning not too bad) with global warming.

The rest can all expect to be importing more.

Here's the kicker: so little of food actually traded across borders for now. Remember my column on dairy? Only 7 percent traded there. Same is true in other categories:

-->18 percent of wheat

-->14 percent of sorghum

-->12 percent of corn

-->7 percent of rice.

Tell me this won't be a major "flow," to use my PNM vernacular, in the 21st century.

I now know how to frame global warming.

Map in second story lists countries most dependent on food imports: all Gap except South Korea, Japan, and Norway. Amazing match with my map.

How regions compare:

-->North America imports 39 percent of total food

-->LATAM imports 27 percent

-->North Africa 68%

-->Sub-Saharan 71%

-->Middle East 76%

-->Europe and Central Asia 54% (weird category)

-->South Asia at 37%

-->East Asia and Pac at 53%.

I have Bradd Hayes working these slides already.

Huge long-term opportunity for Enterra: imagine all the rules that must be dynamically managed for future global food nets!?!?!