Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

I'm worried about the Status of Forces agreement currently being negotiated, as described here, by an observer I respect.

I think the US might push through an agreement that's intolerable to Iraqi nationalists, just because it will be good for short-term US domestic political reasons.

Then we may see the US casualty figures creep back up, after the current administration is safely away.

Ah, the casualty rate is down because all the Iraqi factions expect us to leave and are saving their ammo. Should Jan. 21, 2009 roll by with no movement of our troops to the exits, the rates go up. The Clantons and the Earps want to get on the the OK Corral to finish things up.

There will almost definitely--not willing to say anything's impossible, universe may collapse--but come on the D's will likely triple in November and the entirety of southwest Asia is aflame. It's time to get folks home to their families: how about Thanksgiving at home: how does that sound young man? Hmn. Let me think about it. Passing football's more fun at mom's than in the desert. Considering the hand dealt by the civilians, this may be our military's finest performance thus far. Must the adversarial interstate relations continue to predominate? Putin is not Mugabe. China is not Burma. Kim Jung Il is Kim Jung Il.

Michael Gordon wrote it in the NY Times this past January:

"The generals and diplomats are taught to stay clear of American politics. Right now, they have their hands full trying to devise a way to thin out the American troop deployments and shift more of the burden to the Iraqis without forfeiting hard-won gains. Their hope, one American civilian official said, is to make enough political and military headway this year that the next president will have time to reassess developments in Iraq and perhaps opt for a course correction rather than wholesale change. "

When I was in the Army from 97-01, ie, pre-9/11 'peacetime', I didn't get to spend too many of my holidays at home unless I was lucky enough to be stationed within commuting distance. Nature of the business. Also, from what I understand, what President Obama would remove from Iraq, he plans to put into Afghanistan, possibly even Pakistan. Maybe even into Iran.