Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

France sees it coming. Working to keep Frech interests intact. Are the Brits coming with us on this one? I fail to see what we are going to accomplish by attacking Iran. Is there anyone left in the world that does not know we have a powerful military? I don't get it. I have never felt this detached from the people running our country. Bin Ladin at large, troops fighting in two countries, banks failing, experts predicting gas at $7.00 a gallon. What the h--- is going on?

Ted: Globalization.

The President of Iran wants to keep his job. It seems in light of negotiations pointed toward a raproachment he will need a military demon to do so. Remember the small boat threat? It's the same thing if you dont have an enemy - make one up. The hard part for the US; dont take the bait. Once raproachment is reached the first ones up against the wall will be the revolutionaries - at least we hope so...

Robert: a thought occurred to me: what if we said up front we're not going to war with Iran over something small? more diplomatic words to the effect of 'we will resist attempts to bait us'?

just thinking out loud. wonder if it would work. or cause greater provocation...

How heavily would Israel have to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities to slow down Iran's nuclear program? What is the expected number of civilian casualties in a limited bombing campaign? Must they use nuclear missiles to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear missiles? Does Iran already have nuclear missiles or biological or chemical weapons? Is our prewar intelligence better today than it was yesterday? Will we allow Israel to use Iraqi airspace to conduct strikes? How difficult will the Strait be to keep open? How much will it cost me to fill-up? Will al-Jazeera's coverage be fair and balanced? Will Sunni Arabs join Shia Persians in cause? How hypocritical do we look lecturing Russia and China?

How much of the ME's economic output flows through there? What's to keep a blockage of shipping from turning into a de-facto declaration of war on most of their neighbors?

Why do I get the feeling my questions may be pointless:P

It would be interesting to see America act with the maturity that stated, quite clearly that baiting tactics will not work. Of course that does mean that we could see Iran acting with increased amounts of provocative actions as they raise the baiting bar to get a rise.

>How much of the ME's economic output flows through there?
About 90% of the oil produced in the Persian Gulf. Virtually all of the imports. KSA has a small oil terminal in the Red Sea that handles a small fraction of their current production.

>How difficult will the Strait be to keep open?
Take a look at in on google maps. Then take a look at all those mountains and how long supertankers spend inside artillery range from those mountains. My guess is that oil will spike well over $1k/barrel within minutes of any attack. Further, I estimate that the price of gas will end up causing most folks in the US to be unable to afford to commute to work. Cities with public transport will survive, others might not survive the economic consequences of war with Iran.

>How heavily would Israel have to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities to slow down Iran's nuclear program?
My understanding is that there are over 1k Russian workers at the Bushehr facility, so if that reactor got bombed, it would enrage the Russians, dragging them into the shooting war.