IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN: "Petraeus' next war: After success in Iraq, can America's favourite general win in Afghanistan?" The Economist, 4 October 2008.ASIA: "Talking to the Taliban: In the battle for hearts and minds, the Taliban are compromising core principles," The Economist, 4 October 2008.
ARTICLE: "As Fears Ease, Baghdad Sees Walls Tumble," by Alissa J. Rubin, Stephen Farrell and Erica Goode, New York Times, 10 October 2008.
Top article spurred me to finally write something on the Woodward book, which I liked primarily for its clear vindication of my March Esquire piece.
Second piece explores what it means to talk with the Taliban in an attempt to disconnect them from Al Qaeda. The Taliban, not feeling that successful itself, "is adapting to broaden its popular appeal."
Bans on music, TV, kite flying and dog fighting are lightening or just plain lifting. Guys can shave beards and not get in trouble. Instead of immediately executing government personnel they capture, they now offer amnesty.
A longtime Taliban chief says about half the Taliban are just God-fearing folk and the other half are opportunistic robbers and those who just want to kill.
Upshot? The Taliban seem to be losing their Islamic way, rendering them as just another tribal militia.
Opportunity knocks, it would seem.
Looking back on Petreaus' efforts in Iraq, neat to see how quickly the controversial walls are coming down. Not exactly the timeline of the Berlin Wall, suggesting, as I've often said, that Americans are good at sitting on walls and so we shouldn't be afraid to use them more often—especially if we get turnarounds like this.
You do have to worry, though, with the drop in the price of oil, WRT to Iraqi finances.
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Comments (1)
The drop in oil prices has already lead to big MoD and MoI cuts in Iraq. Iraq delayed buying 50 French Helos, 140 M1A1M tanks, and several other major procurement items.
The drop in oil prices is also affecting Iraq's civilian CAPEX development budget.
Barnett , talking to the Taliban is tricky. It remains viscerally disliked by the large majority of Afghans, including almost all the 63% of Afghans that are not Pashtu. {There have already been many angry articles in the Afghan press arguing that NATO isn't really fighting the Taliban and their foreign [translation: Punjabi, Arabs, Chechans, Dagastani] allies.} The Afghan government must be lead in all negotiations with the Taliban.
Another high priority must be increasing the number of talented NCOs and officers available for training and advising the ANSF. China, India and Russia should be asked to contribute thousands of their best NCOs and Officers to this effort. {Russians should not be combat advisors, but they could contribute thousands of trainers.}
China, India, Japan, South Korea and others should also be asked to contribute a lot more Afghanistan's economic reconstruction.
For example, India has given Afghanistan $800 million in grants and promised $450 million in additional grants this past August. India should be asked to contribute $2 billion more in grants, instead of just $450 million. Similarly, other countries need to be challenged to do more.
Posted by anand | November 3, 2008 1:09 PM