So it did all come down to the question of gay marriages!
■"Presidential election may have hinged on one issue: Issue 1," by Walter Shapiro, USA Today, 5 November 2004, p. 6A.
In retrospect, Ohio was the key. The Dems thought the war in Iraq plus job losses would do the trick, whereas the Republicans banked on fear of terrorism plus shared social values. The wildcard in the mix was that really only one of those four elements appeared on the ballot in addition to the two candidates: Ohio's Issue 1, which proposed a ban on gay marriages.
Here's the local political analysis:
"I always try to avoid single factor analysis," said Ohio Democratic strategist Greg Haas. "But if Issue 1 had not been on the ballot, John Kerry would have won Ohio."
Bush probably ends up winning Ohio by a mere 100,000 votes, and what we hear from the state's political activists is that "This issue drove a lot of first-time voters and new registrants to the polls." Shapiro notes the usual bit about regular churchgoers preferring Bush by a wide margin, but that margin was even larger in Ohio. Ditto for African-Americans, where Bush pulled in 16% of the vote, significantly above the national average of 11% he achieved. Many in the black community in Ohio believe the issue of gay marriages is what swung those additional votes.
A while back I made mention of the issue of gay marriages and its potential as a tipping-point wild card. Little did I expect it might be so easily tracked in its impact. People want to complain about the exit polling in terms of the rollercoaster ride Tuesday night, but that's not what exit polling is all about. It's about helping figure out subtle influences like this one.
So in the end, the Red Sox might have given old John a bit of a psychological boost, but it seems the Massachusetts state government's little tug o' war over the issue of gay marriages might have done him some real harm, meaning good association was trumped by guilt by association. The Bush camp's ability to paint Kerry as the "extreme" liberal (left of Teddy!) was a huge part of its victory. Karl Rove's no boy, but he is some political genius.