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Nye sluchaino chto the Yukos auction …

"An All-but-Unknown Bidder Wins a Rich Russian Oil Stake: Auction of Seized Yukos Unit Raises Suspicions," by Erin E. Arvedlund and Steven Lee Myers, New York Times, 20 December 2004, p. A1.

"Mystery Russian Company Wins Bid on Yukos Unit: Offer of $9.37 Billion Seals Fate of Beleaguered Firm, But Many Questions Linger," by Gregory L. White and Guy Chazan, Wall Street Journal, 20 December 2004, p. A1.

Nye sluchaino chto is a wonderful old Russian phrase that means, "It is not by accident that . . ..

The Yukos move to seek bankruptcy protection in U.S. courts spooked Gazprom's German financial bankers, and so, it would seem, Gazprom's financial bid must have fallen apart prior to the auction. So surprise! A mystery buyer emerges that no one's ever heard of before! What does that phrase mean? It means, that if this obscure small company really had $10b in cash to buy up Yukos, the international business community would have heard of it by now.

My guess is that this company will turn out not to have the financing ready, meaning the auction will be repeated in several weeks time, and by then, my guess is that Gazprom will have it's package in order.

That's the minority view from the articles, as I glean them.

The majority view is that this company, Baikal Finans Group, is nothing more than a front for Gazprom or some other "state-friendly company" (or some combo thereof).

I like the minority view myself, because I like the idea that a U.S. court somehow forced this outcome, proving yet again that connectivity requires code and sometimes code can ruin the best-laid plans of mice and men.




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