Who helps the U.S. figure out the Shiites?
■"In Iraq: One Religion, Two Realities (Sunni, Shiite Sermons Leave No Room for Dialogue on Election or Insurgents)," by Anthony Shadid, Washington Post, 20 December 2004, p. A1.■"Lebanese Wary of a Rising Hezbollah: Fears of Militia's Broader Ambitions Reignite Debate Over Its Populist Agenda," by Scott Wilson, Washington Post, 20 December 2004, p. A17.
The serious score-settling in post-Saddam Iraq between the previously dominant Sunnis and the long-repressed Shiites is just beginning. America is going to get stuck with the Sunnis and their Triangle of rebellion—count on it. But who can generate some sense of control over the demographic majority that is the Shiite population? Can we pretend we can crackdown on the Sunni-heavy insurgency and somehow be seen as keeping the two sides apart with an even hand?
So if we can't, then to whom are we going to turn locally for help?
Ditto on Lebanon, where the Shiite Hezbollah movement is looking rather restive in its ambitions. No secret there who are its main patrons: Shiite states Syria and Iran. As one local Christian leader put it, "As long as they receive money from Iran, as long as they believe they can turn Lebanon into an Islamic society, then we have a real problem with Hezbollah."
So again, to whom are we going to turn locally for help?