News from the Big Bang
■"Bombing at Shiite Mosque In Mosul Leaves 40 Dead," by Robert F. Worth, New York Times, 11 March 2005, p. A8.■"Behind the Scenes, Israelis Press for Syria to Leave Lebanon: Hezbollah is the real enemy, but Syria keeps it vigorous," by Steven Erlanger, New York Times, 11 March 2005, p. A10.
Current interim Sunni PM Allawi may soon be out of a job, as the Kurds and Shiites appear to have brokered a deal among themselves. He was working for something between the Kurds and Sunnis to hold off the Shiite majority, but it was not to be. And who can blame the Kurds for picking the Shiites over the insurgency-riddled Sunni triangle? Plus, by doing this, the Kurds' asking price was probably a more rapid settlement of property rights for their people in and around oil-rich Kirkuk, a city they once dominated but were driven out from by Saddam's Sunni-dominated regime.
Meanwhile, Israel's not shy about wanting Syria out of Lebanon, believing it will weaken Hezbollah:
Israel sees Hezbollah and Iran "as practically synonymous," [one anonymous Israeli] official said, while Syria served as an Iranian ally in the locality, able to supply Hezbollah with weapons and money. "Syria was able to stop any activity of Hezbollah in Lebanon at will, which is why Israel trusted Syria," the official said. But Syria used Hezbollah for its own purposes, to drive us out of Lebanon. And it was happy for Iran to supply Hezbollah for that purpose."But Hezbollah's open support for Syria is likely to hurt it as a political party, the Israelis say. At the same time, given the group's close connection to Iran, there is little reason to believe Hezbollah is going to abandon militancy and terrorism for pure politics.
Iran is nervous troo, the officials said. Iran sees Israel as an ideological enemy and a regional rival that is pushing the United States and Europe to try to deny Iran nuclear weaponry and destroy the Iranian revolution. "Iran's gun against Israel is Hezbollah in southern Lebanon," a military intelligence official said.
So the question is, how to disarm that gun? We've isolated Iran with sanctions and embargoes and whatnot for decades, and what has that done for us? What will several more years of that approach do for us? Except perhaps squander the Big Bang's rolling waves?