Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

The National Intelligence Council now states in latest estimate that Iran is 10 years from bomb, but really determined to get one.

Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb: U.S. Intelligence Review Contrasts With Administration Statements

By Dafna Linzer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, August 2, 2005; Page A01

A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis.

The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House. Administration officials have asserted, but have not offered proof, that Tehran is moving determinedly toward a nuclear arsenal. The new estimate could provide more time for diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. President Bush has said that he wants the crisis resolved diplomatically but that "all options are on the table" . . .

Frankly, much as I admire the NIC, such carefully hedged assessments are almost completely useless.

Full story at: www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/01/AR2005080101453.html