Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Saudis' Leader Is Dead, Ending 23-Year Reign

By HASSAN M. FATTAH
and MICHAEL SLACKMAN

Published: August 2, 2005

New York Times

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, Aug. 1 - King Fahd bin Abdel Aziz al-Saud, Saudi Arabia's long-ailing monarch who oversaw one of the country's greatest periods of growth while underwriting the spread of fiercely conservative Islam abroad, died Monday morning in the Saudi capital, ending a 23-year reign.

Saudi Arabia's New KingThe death of King Fahd, 82, marked the end of a decade-long transition of power that began when he suffered a debilitating stroke in 1995 and put his half-brother, Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz, in control of the country. Shortly after the king was pronounced dead on Monday, Prince Abdullah, 81, became Saudi Arabia's sixth monarch . . .

The transition of power in one of America's most strategically important allies on Monday occurred with few surprises. With Prince Abdullah acting as the de facto regent already, the most critical succession was complete in all but name, analysts said. The rise of Prince Sultan bin Abdel Aziz al-Saud, the long-serving minister of defense and aviation, as crown prince, meanwhile, also proceeded as planned, leaving little in the way of uncertainty . . .

For Abdullah, who has fashioned himself as a reformer in a land where conforming to tradition is a virtue, the challenge now is to make good on longstanding promises for change. In his nine years as the de facto ruler of the country, he pushed for changes that included the nation's first popular elections, which were held this year to elect local councils.

He also moved the education of girls from the control of the religious authorities to the Ministry of Education. And he has worked to balance close relations with the United States, which is perceived by many in the royal family as essential for national and regional security, against rising anti-Americanism among many of his nation's citizens.

But it remains to be seen whether King Abdullah has the fundamental power to challenge Saudi Arabia's imbedded powers, including the infamous vice police, the religious clergy and more than a thousand royals all vying for position and a hand at the country's purse strings. He may push for greater citizen participation in government, more rights for women and amnesty for some political prisoners, political analysts said . . .

This can't be anything but good news for the Big Bang.

Full story at: www.nytimes.com/2005/08/02/international/middleeast/02saudi.html

As Gerald Posner points out in an op-ed the same day, time is running out on the House of Saud: it's reform or perish.