The Russian election scenario is already being gamed by Putin
■"Russia's Radicals Feel Heat: Kremlin, Fearing Ukraine Rerun, Is Accused of Repressing Rivals," by Alan Collison, Wall Street Journal, 8 September 2005, p. A16.
One of my headlines from the future in my Afterward called "Blogging the Future" is about the 2008 presidential election in Russia. There's no doubt that Putin will try-at the very least-to install his own man and retain much power in a Lee Kuan Yew-sort of way. My guess is that it will be harder than the Kremlin thinks.
Right now Russia is enjoying an economic boomlet of sorts, thanks to oil, and in three years, given that this is likely to continue, the restiveness against Putin's heavy hand won't be limited just to the young. Russian society will grow more confident in its growing economic success, and the paternalistic leadership approach will begin to chaff.
What America should be doing in the meantime is working Russia on this issue, making it clear that we're watching.
Can we do more? Not really. But by emphasizing that the Kremlin needs to get out of the business of intimidating rising business leaders with political aspirations (or even just former chess champions like Kasparov), otherwise it energy investment climate will ultimately limit its ability to exploit its reserves fully with influxes of Western technology, we'll remind Putin that his imitation of Hugo Chavez will ultimately isolate the regime both diplomatically and financially.