■"U.S. chipping away at al-Qaeda's leadership, but attacks climbing: Up to more than 500 a week, military says," by Steven Komarow, USA Today, 3 October 2005, p. 12A.
We can't expect the insurgents to lighten up. Instead, the closer we get to giving security control of Iraq back to Iraqis (okay, mostly just the Shiites and Kurds), the more we can expect the terrorists to ratchet up their efforts.
This is an old pattern, displayed many times. The ratcheting up isn't about preventing the outcome (American troops retreating behind walls and letting the Kurds and Shiites defend themselves more and more), but gearing up for the conflict that naturally follows.
You think America faces some angry local population that will fight us to the end of time to preserve its freedom? Well look again. There are two populations in Iraq trying to do exactly that, but they don't fight against the specter of the Americans staying forever, because they know we won't. No, they fight against the specter of the Sunnis returning to their oppressive rule over their peoples. And yeah, we can expect them to fight for as long as it takes to keep that scenario from unfolding--again.
This ramping up of terrorism is not about us. It's about the "civil war" to come. We'll call it that, but in reality it'll just be the death throes of a pretend state that came apart the minute the strongman was removed from power--just like Yugoslavia after Tito's passing (where it took far longer, and didn't involve a foreign intervention as the trigger, and yet, look at how similar the outcome ends up being).
| Permalink |
