Connectivity sets in motion of a virtuous circle of flows and possibilities
■"Talking Turkey Pays Dividends: Mere Start of EU Negotiations Is Enough to Encourage Investors," by Marc Champion and Juliane Von Reppert-Bismarck, Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2005, p. A18.■"In Eastern Europe,Western Banks Fuel Growth, Fears: As Giants Rush In, Bulgaria Tries to Slow Flow of Credit; Big Gamble for UniCredito," by Jason Singer, Carrick Mollenkamp, and Alessandra Galloni, Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2005, p. A1.
■"Beijing Media's Stock Hurt by Arrests," by Geoffrey A. Fowler, Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2005, p. B3.
■"China Construction Will Pitch IPO Valued at up to $7.7 Billion," by Kate Linebaugh, Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2005, p. C4.
■"Debate swirls over city Wi-Fi networks: Cable, phone firms say cities' vendors get unfair advantage," by Leslie Cauley, USA Today, 5 October 2005, p. 1A.
■"Wireless text is logical basis for an emergency info system," by Kevin Maney, USA Today, 5 October 2005, p. 3B.
I know my optimisim on Turkey joining the EU faster as opposed to worst-case slow comes off as a bit zany. I just think that viewing the dynamic as solely EU-Turkey is wrong. Just starting these talks is going to set in motion so much more, like the flood of foreign direct investment from the West into Turkey recently, betting that the country will be the last great chance for arbitraging "convergence" (betting that Turkey will be rapidly brought up to EU speed, so betting on the come).
I think that process, once displayed for a Muslim nation, will trigger interest in the EU beyond Turkey in the Middle East. Obviously, no chance for others to join the EU per se, but more a matter of driving up interest in proposed free trade arrangements between the EU and North Africa and the Gulf region (already proposed, just not going anywhere per se for now). My point: this conversation is, in itself, a tipping point. By agreeing even to agree, no matter how absurd the timeline seems at this juncture, imagination is unleashed, which, in the end, I believe will shorten that timeline considerably.
The question is, what will be the vertical scenario trigger that pushes it along so much faster. Remember, Russia wasn't about to join NATO for years and years (at least, the experts said) and then 9/11 changed everything and Russia's in, for all practical purposes, within 6 months. I'm looking for similar "inconceivables" to push the Turkey-EU process much faster than most imagine. Remember ever more: this is easily caught up in the still-unfolding Big Bang process by which Saddam's takedown changed everything and nothing all at once in the Arab world. The inconceivables are still piling up there too, and eventually an intermixing will ensue.
That's because connectivity is unpredictable, triggering all sorts of positive, virtuous circles that are far harder to control that disconnectedness, firewalls, containment strategies and the like. You connect, and new code will follow. Inevitable.
China connects. It puts crown jewels like the state-owned media company Beijing Media out for listing in foreign markets. Then some allegations of bribery and corruption arise regarding senior officials there, and the world says to China, "your company just lost a load of value!" Rest assured that new code will follow. Connectivity drives code. The more you connect with others, the more rules you must follow. China has no choice. It's just beginning to float IPOs of some of its Big Four Banks. This has to go well, because China needs foreign financial firms to slowly eat up its backlog of bad loans. The more China does this, just watch how much more aggressively they deal with corruption back home. Why? Just costs too much. How do they find out? Foreign investors tell them so.
Giving up control of your banks to foreigners is part of the globalization price. You want access to foreign capital? Expect their rules to come with that access.
But also expect to import some foreign expectations, like the possibility of mortgages fueling desires for home ownership, and that fueling the rise of tax payers who want more from their government. Transaction rates stemming from the private sector is what gets you government reform: companies and individuals demand more and better from the government, and the government has to provide better services. Globalization gets you better governments because money wants better performance and globalization gets you access to more money.
Connectivity always surprises because it provides options that are inconceivable until the sheer connectivity makes it so. Philly wants to go wi-fi. That sort of connectivity gives the city all sorts of new chances for building in resiliency in the face of possible downstream challenges, like disasters. What's inconceivable is all of a sudden all around us, and everything moves faster than expected.
That's why I like betting on rule-set automation with Enterra. This is a company that bets on rising opportunity, growing ingenuity, and the ability of humans to master complexity. No fear factor to sell, just competitive advantage in an increasingly networked world. I like to make money the old-fashioned way: by making the world a better, stronger, more resilient place.