Doha: not quite alive, not quite dead
ARTICLE: “Mapping Detours in Trade Talks: Doha Stalemate May Force U.S. to Narrow Goals, Seek Bilateral Deals,” by Greg Hitt, Wall Street Journal, 3 May 2006, p. A4.EDITORIAL: “Five minutes to midnight: Will politicians realise the global trade round is worth saving before it is too late? The Economist, 29 April 2006, p. 13.
OP-ED: “Free Trade Vision,” by Rob Portman and Susan Schwab, Wall Street Journal 1 May 2006, p. A14.
Doha is just about dead, just like the Uruguay Round previously died a thousand deaths only to rise a thousand other times like a phoenix from the ashes--always well behind schedule, of course.
Just as expected in this multilateral doldrums, the U.S. will do its usual trick of focusing in the meantime on bilateral accords, as Doha deadline after deadline passes.
But the Economist is right: New Core powers like India, China and Brazil will lose far more if the world turns to regionalism. All need access to both the Old Core and the Gap if their trajectories are to be maintained. The question is, Will the Old Core let them forge the necessary compromises? Or does Doha self-destruct just because the French are such wimps (afraid to take on farmers, much less the kids down the street)?
Bush needs to call in some old markers with some old friends. Too bad he has neither beyond our borders.
Yet another sign of what Iraq ends up costing us, or--better put--what the 2004 election ends up yielding us (one real year of presidency, three lame years of post-presidency).
Comments
I'm sorry but George W Bush is not to blame for French political culture, the French own that one exclusively. Can you name me an american president that could have convinced his French counterparts to stand firm in the face of french rioting on the level that Doha will produce? Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush (I), Clinton, Bush (II).
By my count none of them had the necessary juice because there simply has yet to be a post WW II French prime minister/president combination with sufficient spine to make the sacrifice, sufficient gratitude to honor past debts, and sufficient debts to make it happen. The French know what they're doing is risking the entire international system. They like their vacations and positions of power more which is why neither the muslim riots nor the labor flexibility legislation riots ended up with the rioters defeated. How does one fix that?
In Romania, they had Miron Cosma and he terrorized governments as badly or worse than various french groups do. Eventually, he was stopped, beaten, arrested, and convicted and then his organization of miner thugs was broken. It saved Romania from a redescent into hell. France needs the same sort of courage and that is simply not something that can be imposed externally.
Posted by: TM Lutas![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/nav-commenters.gif)
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May 5, 2006 3:07 PM
I agree. The powerful French farm lobby, and just rigid labor market in general, wasn't caused by Iraq, but by decades of poor French policy. I don't see how it could possibly be Bush's fault.
Assuming Iraq hadn't happened, what possible incentive could a US president have offered to France to convince them to stand firm against their own farm lobby? What carrot's would a Kerry presidency have been able to offer?
Posted by: scott | May 5, 2006 5:50 PM
While the politicians jockey for being the top dog, businesses make Doha possible, let's see uhm... How many MickeyDs and KFCs ( Halal Style of course ) can we fit in Iraq??? Imagine the possibilities
Of course if we just follow Mr. Barnett and Mr. Friedman here then same can be applied to Iran... The possibilities...Dang those fear-mongering politicians
Seen this somewhere before...(Germany 1930's). Hope we don't go there
Vinit
Posted by: Vinit Joshi | May 7, 2006 11:13 PM