Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog

Agreed. Now how do we get ourselves out of the box into which we've clumsily maneuvered ourselves? Us active duty types are keenly interested...

The fundamental truth, I think, is that either people will want the Core for their own interests and will work like hell to get there or they're doing it to please/placate the US or whoever is temporarily interested in which case it's all going to fall apart. I think that the lebanese (but not Hezbollah) do want out of being Syria's colony, out of being the field upon which the muslim/jewish war is fought out.

Like all such impulses in real-world politics, it's not an absolute priority and can be temporarily suppressed by events (see: Israeli invasion). But the Israelis are currently taking the position that they're gone as soon as Hezbollah disarms and cedes territory in favor of that Lebanese army. That same poor, undertrained, underled, underfunded entity talked about above.

So wouldn't the way out be to ask Lebanon to put together a budget for the training of a competent national army, let the Iraqi military (which seems to be fairly enthusiastic about learning US style) give them a few pointers as to what sort of aid has been most useful, and start the long haul effort of upgrading their military so it can actually fulfill its job description? Since the numbers are significantly smaller than in Iraq and the violence challenges much less acute, its not something that should be out of reach.

I totally disagree. We are learning now what the Roman Empire learned as it faced the first millenium: you can't co-opt a committed adversary. The benefits of our engagements in Iraq and the recent Israelie engagment are that they reveal the depth of the military/political context in which we are trying to operate. How else would we know that 1559 was a total sham? How else would we know that Iran and Syria have been pouring their best offensive armaments into Lebanon? How else would we know how willing Russia and China are to align themselves with these Islamic regimes? How else would we know that Iranian president is a liar when he says that he says they are only interested in in peaceful use of nuclear technology but telling the complete truth when he says he supports elimination of the state of Isreal? We are a democracy and these engagements make us better informed about the realities we are faced with. Yes the administration has not been prescient but is Ned Lamont the answer? With the realities revealed, the American public is better prepared to make the appriate judgments in the critical upcoming elections. If Amercians are going to fight this war, we have to understand the depth and committment of our adversaries to wage it against us. Our understanding of this adversary is far better today than it was 3 months ago, or 5 years ago, or 10 years ago. And it is better because of these engagements.

C. Paul Cox:
After the Arab/Islamic world has united into a transnational republic and ended the petro dollar recycling system which props up the US financial system so that they can use those profits for their own economic development, we should be finally be experts at understanding what was driving the situation.

You have to think outside of the existing border system to understand what is happening, and to appreciate that the economic and linguistic integration of the Arab world is far out in front of the political structures inherited from WW1/2.

OPEC is just the tip of the iceberg.
There is a massive migrant labor force in the Gulf outside of the social contract.
There is a burgeoning integrated Arab banking system (interestingly led by Palestinians).
Saudi and Egypt just linked their electrical grids, now stretching from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean.
Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya and thousands of websites now comprise a unified Arab media.

We are witnessing the birth of a nation here.
And American Perestroika of the Middle East is going to be overtaken by a Revolution from Below.

and BTW: the only way for Israeli Jews to be included is as part of a Single State Solution - ie. ending our Jewish Apartheid System

Yitshak:

This partly resembles my own conclusion:
some 60 years after WW2 the Arab/Muslim "iceberg" is being
unlocked by the nefarious strategy of the Jihad warriors AND the merciless strikes of their Western enemies.
Totally unintelligble without considering the success of
functionalizing this part of the world for the world market
("connectednes" as it is put by Mr. Barnett).
No one knows the outcome.
Mighty Israel needs an honest answer - its nation building
project may be be at stake as never before. A pile of nukes will probably not suffice. Pathetic rallying againt "islamic fascism"? What a sapient idea! (The rest of the world - maybe except Germany - will simply not buy it.)

Yitzhak - Is the US and Canada (which share a well integrated electrical system) careening towards one nation status? I don't think so. Why the coming integration of arab countries' electrical systems herald political integration? After all, Jordan and Syria were early integrators starting in 2001 and that certainly didn't stop them from having differences politically.

I believe that the oil system is largely on its last legs though I don't think that we're going to see a qiuck end to the petrodollar system. OPEC, during the 1970s used to have the freedom to drive prices up to $80/bbl because that was about the price point when alternative methods like Fischer Tropsch became commercially viable. The US, like the PRC, has huge coal reserves, an important Fischer-Tropsch feedstock. Today, South Africa's Sasol his driven down the price of FT extraction to $32/bbl equiv and FT plants are on the drawing board. The fear is that so much of current oil prices are based entirely on political fears that a ME solution would lead to FT plants being, once again, rendered uneconomical by changing conditions. If the peak oil crowd is right, as soon as a large ME field peaks and forces one of the big OPEC players to significantly restate downward their ability to pump, that constraint is going to go and a mini FT age will commence and we'll use coal based liquid fuels until we can get something better.

Once the West accepts FT, OPEC is doomed because any threat to reduce pumping will simply increase the incentive to build FT plants to provide reliable energy from non-OPEC controlled energy sources.